Cards need to decide whether trading Helsley or getting compensatory pick is better

[hugeCardfan]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

[thetank2]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

Helsley will decline because if he gets a 3 year $45 million guaranteed contract he will be better off. Same with Fedde.

[Ozziesfan41]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

Helsley will decline because if he gets a 3 year $45 million guaranteed contract he will be better off. Same with Fedde.

If he continues to pitch the way he has so far this season he won’t turn it down if the cardinals did offer it because no way someone would pay him 3 at 45. He would take the QO in heart beat in hopes of a rebound season and so they wouldn’t be able to offer it to him again. But if he continues to pitch the way he has so far they wouldn’t offer him the QO anyway and the cardinals aren’t paying 20 million on a reliever it won’t happen

[hugeCardfan]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

Helsley will decline because if he gets a 3 year $45 million guaranteed contract he will be better off. Same with Fedde.

If so, so what? You get another closer for next year and another draft pick. But, you keep your closer to the finish line. This team deserves no less.

[jbrach]

if helesly starts to pitch well there will be numerous teams ready to trade top prospects the trick is to pick the right prospects...doyle alexander was traded down the stretch to the tigers and went 9-0 down the stretch...great deal right..well the braves got john smoltz

[An Old Friend]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

I didn’t say they’d trade him.

[BrockFloodMaris]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

Helsley will decline because if he gets a 3 year $45 million guaranteed contract he will be better off. Same with Fedde.

The good news is that by mid to late July, the answers to these questions and more will fall into the Cards lap. Their next steps will be obvious. At this point, it is purely conjecture.

[ramfandan]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

The fans in Milwaukee would agree with you 100% from their past experience with Josh Hader trade. Hader had 1 1/2 years remaining on his deal and FO felt his value was at all time high. They traded him to Padres in a 4 for 1 deal . Not only were the fans shocked but the players in the clubhouse were surprised and the team crumbled . A year later the FO even publicly commented that they had miscalculated the effect of trading away the best closer in baseball from a contending type team. BTW the trade never brought the fire power to the Brewers they had hoped.

[Ozziesfan41]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

The fans in Milwaukee would agree with you 100% from their past experience with Josh Hader trade. Hader had 1 1/2 years remaining on his deal and FO felt his value was at all time high. They traded him to Padres in a 4 for 1 deal . Not only were the fans shocked but the players in the clubhouse were surprised and the team crumbled . A year later the FO even publicly commented that they had miscalculated the effect of trading away the best closer in baseball from a contending type team. BTW the trade never brought the fire power to the Brewers they had hoped.

Hader had a 4.24 ERA at the time of the trade and they ended up getting William Contreras out of it so they got more from it than if he just left as a free agents. closers aren’t reliable year in and year out any more look at hader and Williams and Diaz and the top closers not worth investing in unless you have unlimited money to waste

[Clubmaker2]

you trade him for players who will help the team much sooner in years than the pick will at lower cost than RH will be over the next years. The ownerships tight hold on the wallet means they cannot blow past opportunities to get good young cheaper talent that helps next year, and not just wait for that pick to hopefully develop 5 years from now. This team has proven it will not pay for the next piece once it does one thing. So dont act like they will, and dont waste opportunities to do what needs to be done when they will not expand the budget. As posters have posted, walking the middle, not going for it and not setting up for future, pretty much gets the cards no where.

[CCard]

Or....Follow me here....Or...They could pony up and sign the best closer in baseball long term. I know it goes against everything St Louis stands for, but imagine not having to worry about closer for 5 or more years. And if things do happen to fall apart, they could always trade him sometime during that contract which would probably make him even more valuable to a team wanting him. Shocking common sense, right?

[Ozziesfan41]

Or....Follow me here....Or...They could pony up and sign the best closer in baseball long term. I know it goes against everything St Louis stands for, but imagine not having to worry about closer for 5 or more years. And if things do happen to fall apart, they could always trade him sometime during that contract which would probably make him even more valuable to a team wanting him. Shocking common sense, right?

Signing a closer to a long term contract is not common sense it’s probably one of the dumbest things a team can do especially if it doesn’t have unlimited payroll. And it’s worrying every time he takes the mound this season because you never which Helsley you’re going to get

[Melville]

Certainly appears Cardinals are not going to retain Helsley for big $$$ as they have reduced payroll. So if not, they have two options.
The first is trading Helsley at the trade deadline. Currently , that option gets the most attention .
The other option is keeping Helsley thru the end of 2025 season , allowing him to go to free agency , and receiving a compensation pick. At least at this point, that option has gotten minor attention .

On the surface, the compensation choice does not strike most fans as the better option . One must dig a bit deeper though. The compensation picks are tiered by the amount of $$ the signing player receives with his new team. (Spotrac project that Helsley contract would be $81 M range which would place the choice after Round 1 ) Example: Last year the Brewers knew they were not going to re-sign SS Willy Adames for his $$ would be way too high for their payroll. They could have traded him at the deadline or get the compensation pick. Knowing he would get in the highest comp pick bracket ($50 + M contract ), the Brewers took the pick . It was the 34th pick in the draft.

So one would expect the Cardinals could get a pick somewhere in that range too as Helsley signing will be in the top level tier too.
The Cardinals front office Mo /Bloom will weigh are the packages offered better or taking a high level pick the route to go .
Would guess Mo is going to listen closely to Bloom as it would be Bloom's ballclub for the future. He is building the team . Remember , the Cardinals Randy Flores in 2020 drafted Masyn Winn in the 2nd round with the 54th pick. Look at the player he is now.

As I alone correctly analyzed and predicted before the season even began, there is a better than 50% chance (and increasing day by day) that Super Slo Mo will retain both Helsley and Fedde at the deadline.
Remember, I know Mo better than Mo knows Mo.
When others were clamoring for to be traded in the off-season, I alone perfectly understood and explained Mo's thinking.
Recall that Mo refused to call 2025 a "rebuild" - and preferred the word "reset".
Recall that he said he believed in the team and wanted to see what it could so.
Other than N/A refusing to report then traded to Houston, the roster was what Mo wanted.
I said very clearly that Mo wanted to wait until July concerning Helsley and Fedde - and would likely keep both if the Cardinals were within a few games of the division lead.
Why?
Mo wants to feel vindicated in his last year.
He is not going to simply throw away a chance to get into the playoffs if he sees a pathway.
And DeWitt will back him up for the exact same reason.
Which means if STL stays close to the division lead 6 or 7 weeks from now, Helsley and Fedde will almost certainly stay right where they are.
Mo will, of course, continue his 2-year crusade of attempting to move Arenado, and if the starting staff remains healthy Matz will be shopped as well.
Mo has a couple of spare relievers and a couple of position players in Memphis who could be packaged with either of those two.
But, though everyone here and in the media could not see it, I realized long ago that the Helsley and Fedde decisions were made many months ago.
They will stay if the standings dictate it.
Keep reading.
Keep learning.

[Melville]

Or....Follow me here....Or...They could pony up and sign the best closer in baseball long term. I know it goes against everything St Louis stands for, but imagine not having to worry about closer for 5 or more years. And if things do happen to fall apart, they could always trade him sometime during that contract which would probably make him even more valuable to a team wanting him. Shocking common sense, right?

I advised that exact thing last off-season.
Makes far more sense to extend Helsley than to trade him.
STL should have made a serious offer last fall/winter.
To the best of our knowledge, they did not.
Foolish mistake.
They should correct that error in the next month or so.
Helsley could reject an offer, but the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION is to make a truly competitive attempt to do so.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[AnExParrot]

I don't think the Cardinals would be comfortable offering a closer a qualifying offer because of the chance he might take it.

Being a reliever in the market with a qualifying offer hanging over you isn't a fun place to be. It limits the market immensely. Helsley might take the QO if given the chance.

Do you think Cards would see that as a terrible outcome though? They've got money to spend this winter and it's unlikely they're planning (m)any other big signings. Then they can always flip him at the deadline next year.

$20MM+ on a closer for a franchise looking to reset their payroll floor? Math doesn’t work.

Of course it does. It's a one and done. DeWitt could do that without blinking. You don't trade a closer if the team is contending. You just don't.

The fans in Milwaukee would agree with you 100% from their past experience with Josh Hader trade. Hader had 1 1/2 years remaining on his deal and FO felt his value was at all time high. They traded him to Padres in a 4 for 1 deal . Not only were the fans shocked but the players in the clubhouse were surprised and the team crumbled . A year later the FO even publicly commented that they had miscalculated the effect of trading away the best closer in baseball from a contending type team. BTW the trade never brought the fire power to the Brewers they had hoped.

The trade got them Ruiz who, then, netted William Contreras. William has been an all-star for them and placed 11th and 5th in MVP voting in his first two seasons with the Brewers. You keep bringing up the Hader trade and keep ignoring this - it's weird.

[An Old Friend]

Or....Follow me here....Or...They could pony up and sign the best closer in baseball long term. I know it goes against everything St Louis stands for, but imagine not having to worry about closer for 5 or more years. And if things do happen to fall apart, they could always trade him sometime during that contract which would probably make him even more valuable to a team wanting him. Shocking common sense, right?

Aside from a 5 year deal being an abhorrent idea for any reliever… just because Helsley is the closer on your favorite team does not make him the best closer in baseball.

No offense, but what you perceive as common sense is nearly the exact opposite of actual common sense.