Build a Team For 95 Wins. Here's Why...

[Talkin' Baseball]

I've looked back over the last 10 full seasons (I omitted the partial covid season), and here is what I found:
-The average regular season record of the World Series winner was 97-65.
-The average regular season record of the World Series loser was 93.6-68.4.
-Of the 20 World Series participants, 15 of them won their division. In other words, 75% of teams making it to the World Series won their divison, and 25% were wild card entrants to the playoffs.
-The average regular season record of the National League Central division winners was 94.5-67.5. That's a .583 winning percentage.
-In the National League for the past 10 years the average number of wins for a wild card team has been 91. The average number of wins for the very last wildcard spot has been 88.9.
-Since MLB has adopted the 3 wildcard per league format, 18 teams have made the playoffs via the wild card. Of the 18 teams that made the wildcard, two advanced to the World Series. Neither team won.

My takeaway from all of this is that a team needs to be built to win at least 95 games, and the goal needs to be to win the division. On average, over a 10-year span, 95 wins gets you the Central Division. Don't buy the wildcard- just get in and anything can happen hooey. The past 10 years say that wildcard teams have a very low chance of getting to the World Series, and since the inception of the 3 wildcard set-up, the odds are even lower. 95 wins will usually get you the division and measures comparably to the records of the teams who have actually been playing in the World Series.

These things should be considered when we are trying to decide if we are actually contenders, or not? What are we contending for- a wildcard- or something more? This is what something more requires.

[ramfandan]

Two reasons wildcard teams don't get to WS ...

1st) they have to play more games to get there ..thus more odds of losing games
2nd) they qualified with several wins less than division winners...thus their 162 game talent was less than the division winners.
So lesser talent plus more games = less championships by far

When I was young guy , there were two separate leagues . No interleague play 8 teams in each league . Only the winner of each league played postseason. for the WS
If you got 2nd place ,bye bye Nobody in my teens lobbied for more playoff teams. If you grew up in St. Louis as I did , you were a National League fan only .. If the Cardinals didn't win the league championship, whoever did was the NL team you rooted for. NEVER EVER would you root for the OTHER LEAGUE the AL The NYY were despised . My first WS in my lifetime was 1964 .. I was age 16 then .. NYY vs Cards 7 games and we won !

[The Nard]

Good analysis, but there’s another factor. Simply put, the division winners usually have a better team, top to bottom, although some may lose a series to a wild-card team. And - I really doubt that any “ good” team goes after a WC slot. It’s the Division they’re after. Only 1 team per division makes that, so the lesser teams will have to settle for we slots. It’s an outcome, not really a goal.

[imadangman]

There's been plenty of 100 win teams get knocked out in the first round after their bye. There also been the 84 win D-Bags, the 90 win Rangers, and the 86 win Phillies in the world series.

So actually, anything can happen. Of course I'd rather win 95 than 90. If you're in the 93-95 range you're good enough to win anything. The 2022 Cardinals won 93 games. And on paper they were probably good enough to beat Philly. Unfortunately they caught our big hitters cold, and found some magic of our own. Coulda been us.

[Talkin' Baseball]

There's been plenty of 100 win teams get knocked out in the first round after their bye. There also been the 84 win D-Bags, the 90 win Rangers, and the 86 win Phillies in the world series.

So actually, anything can happen. Of course I'd rather win 95 than 90. If you're in the 93-95 range you're good enough to win anything. The 2022 Cardinals won 93 games. And on paper they were probably good enough to beat Philly. Unfortunately they caught our big hitters cold, and found some magic of our own. Coulda been us.

Of course, anything CAN happen, but the point of all of this is that low win teams and wildcard teams don't advance very often. Over a 10 year period, the average World Series winning team had 97 regular season victories. On average, that is who wins.

[Carp4Cy]

There's been plenty of 100 win teams get knocked out in the first round after their bye. There also been the 84 win D-Bags, the 90 win Rangers, and the 86 win Phillies in the world series.

So actually, anything can happen. Of course I'd rather win 95 than 90. If you're in the 93-95 range you're good enough to win anything. The 2022 Cardinals won 93 games. And on paper they were probably good enough to beat Philly. Unfortunately they caught our big hitters cold, and found some magic of our own. Coulda been us.

Look at the NBA. 8 9and 10 seed teams never advance.

Thankfully, we don’t have that many seeds in baseball, but the odds are certainly longer for a 6 than a 1 or two seed.

So basically, if you project as a 88 win team in the preseason, you should make trades to improve to get to 95 wins and increase your playoff success odds.

Meanwhile, if you project as a wildcard team at the trade deadline, as long as you don’t sell off, then don’t sell off because even wild card team has a respectable chance to win a pennant, and you should never throw away that window of opportunity

[Talkin' Baseball]

There's been plenty of 100 win teams get knocked out in the first round after their bye. There also been the 84 win D-Bags, the 90 win Rangers, and the 86 win Phillies in the world series.

So actually, anything can happen. Of course I'd rather win 95 than 90. If you're in the 93-95 range you're good enough to win anything. The 2022 Cardinals won 93 games. And on paper they were probably good enough to beat Philly. Unfortunately they caught our big hitters cold, and found some magic of our own. Coulda been us.

Look at the NBA. 8 9and 10 seed teams never advance.

Thankfully, we don’t have that many seeds in baseball, but the odds are certainly longer for a 6 than a 1 or two seed.

So basically, if you project as a 88 win team in the preseason, you should make trades to improve to get to 95 wins and increase your playoff success odds.

Meanwhile, if you project as a wildcard team at the trade deadline, as long as you don’t sell off, then don’t sell off because even wild card team has a respectable chance to win a pennant, and you should never throw away that window of opportunity

You missed my point. A wild card team does not have a respectable chance to win a pennant. Of the 20 pennants won in the past 10 full seasons, 5 have been won by wild card teams. Since the advent of the 3 wild card system the odds are even lower. These things are true, not just for the Cardinals, but for all wild card teams.
Additionally, if an 88-win team takes themselves seriously and doesn't move on from the players they should, they have trouble the following season even being an 88-win team.

[Talkin' Baseball]

The difference between 88 wins and 95 wins is the difference between hoping and planning. For the past 10 full seasons the average number of wins for the FINAL wildcard spot is 88.9. So, 88 sometimes doesn't cut it- if you even actually make the 88. In contrast, the last time a 95-win team didn't make the playoffs was 1999- 26 years ago. You can almost always bank on the playoffs at 95. There is some space to make the playoffs even if things don't go as planned and you miss your goal. You can expect to make the playoffs. That's where you want to be.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The difference between 88 wins and 95 wins is the difference between hoping and planning. For the past 10 full seasons the average number of wins for the FINAL wildcard spot is 88.9. So, 88 sometimes doesn't cut it- if you even actually make the 88. In contrast, the last time a 95-win team didn't make the playoffs was 1999- 26 years ago. You can almost always bank on the playoffs at 95. There is some space to make the playoffs even if things don't go as planned and you miss your goal. You can expect to make the playoffs. That's where you want to be.

Good work man. Stay your course. And chances are the division winner will have a bit better pitching, which wins championships.

If you are inferring we do this this year, only by accident. Not the plan to win big. A by product of bigger things ahead.

[thetank2]

If you play at a 95 win clip rate at the end of the season say the last month or so you should have just as good of a chance. Win the series.

[Talkin' Baseball]

If you play at a 95 win clip rate at the end of the season say the last month or so you should have just as good of a chance. Win the series.

History says that happens- but it doesn't happen often.