Is Gorman right sized in his current role?

[Melville]

Defensively in 2024, his batting run value was 22nd (percentile), baserunning 29th, and fielding 19th. His Range OAA 9th percentile, Arm Strength 14th and Sprint Speed 21st. These are all bottom quartile or close to it....

2025 Range shot up SSS, arm strength about the same 19th and sprint speed 18th.

He isn't much on defense or on the bases. He has power and this season seems to have developed the ability to draw some walks. But is he really some poorly developed prospect or is he, what he is as we see him now. Part-time player who has an explosive bat with a lot of miss. I realize his PA's are ~100 this season.

I don't see all the hype, I don't see a missed opportunity like you all. His xwOBA is league average over his last 100 PA's and with a sharp dip over his last 250.

Last year 616 pitches he posted a -4 run value against the fastball and has the same run value this season at 139 pitches vs the fastball

A just a side note. How in the hell did anyone expect him to play 3rd base all season with below average arm strength? Let's all rejoice that Nado wasn't traded

*** I like him in his current role, I like having that power and ability to walk late in games if an injury occurs or there is a favorable match up. Essentially a pitcher who doesn't have an elite fastball.

Do you sabermetric statisticians just completely overlook the most obvious stats to be deliberately obtuse, or do you truly believe you can find everything in underlying stats?

In his first 689 abs, before the age of 24, Gorman hit 41 HR's, 30 2bs, and drove in 111 RBIs.

Sabremetrics can go F themselves. How many guys in MLB history have put up that much power and production in their first 700 abs before the age of 24?

My guess is less than 100--in the history of MLB. Again that's a guess but very few players do that right out of the gun. Whatever they're doing with him right now, it's not working, and they need to change course, because that kind of power should not be given up on until it's definitely gone.

My concern is the kid has a bad back and if that's the case, well, I hope he earned his college degree.

Gorman may find in his best interest to be traded.
His BABIP is oddly low which indicates he has been hitting into bad luck - Steamer, for example, shows his expected BA right now should be in the .220's - which would be in line with career norms.
(It would also put his OBP at a well above average .350).
This suggests he should be getting a lot more playing time to normalize the outcomes.
His K rate is down, his contact rate in the zone is up, his line drive rate is up, his walk rate is up.
However, his barrel rate is down.
This then also suggests playing time is an issue - he is not seeing enough pitches on a regular basis to be consistent.
The Marmot had badly mismanaged Gorman's playing time and given Oli's penchant for making decisions based on personalities that does not bode well.
Now, these issues could be resolved if STL trades N/A again over the coming 2 months, but that remains to be seen.
As for points made earlier in the thread, a couple of corrections are necessary.
Gorman has a well above average arm (both strength and accuracy).
And he has made himself a slightly above average defender overall.
Bottom line - he may overcome the poor coaching and management he has experienced in STL through his own work and talent, but if not, he will need to find success elsewhere.
Finally, to the point made by blackinkbiz above, is there an issue with Gorman's back as well?
Perhaps.
But I would put my money on bad coaching and a poor manager.

[thetank2]

Defensively in 2024, his batting run value was 22nd (percentile), baserunning 29th, and fielding 19th. His Range OAA 9th percentile, Arm Strength 14th and Sprint Speed 21st. These are all bottom quartile or close to it....

2025 Range shot up SSS, arm strength about the same 19th and sprint speed 18th.

He isn't much on defense or on the bases. He has power and this season seems to have developed the ability to draw some walks. But is he really some poorly developed prospect or is he, what he is as we see him now. Part-time player who has an explosive bat with a lot of miss. I realize his PA's are ~100 this season.

I don't see all the hype, I don't see a missed opportunity like you all. His xwOBA is league average over his last 100 PA's and with a sharp dip over his last 250.

Last year 616 pitches he posted a -4 run value against the fastball and has the same run value this season at 139 pitches vs the fastball

A just a side note. How in the hell did anyone expect him to play 3rd base all season with below average arm strength? Let's all rejoice that Nado wasn't traded

*** I like him in his current role, I like having that power and ability to walk late in games if an injury occurs or there is a favorable match up. Essentially a pitcher who doesn't have an elite fastball.

Do you sabermetric statisticians just completely overlook the most obvious stats to be deliberately obtuse, or do you truly believe you can find everything in underlying stats?

In his first 689 abs, before the age of 24, Gorman hit 41 HR's, 30 2bs, and drove in 111 RBIs.

Sabremetrics can go F themselves. How many guys in MLB history have put up that much power and production in their first 700 abs before the age of 24?

My guess is less than 100--in the history of MLB. Again that's a guess but very few players do that right out of the gun. Whatever they're doing with him right now, it's not working, and they need to change course, because that kind of power should not be given up on until it's definitely gone.

My concern is the kid has a bad back and if that's the case, well, I hope he earned his college degree.

Gorman may find in his best interest to be traded.
His BABIP is oddly low which indicates he has been hitting into bad luck (Steamer, for example, shows his expected BA right now should be in the .220's - which would be in line with career norms.
(It would also put his OBP at a well above average .350).
This suggests he should be getting a lot more playing time to normalize the outcomes.
His K rate is down, his contact rate in the zone is up, his line drive rate is up, his walk rate is up.
However, his barrel rate is down.
This then also suggests playing time is an issue - he is not seeing enough pitches on a regular basis to be consistent.
The Marmot had badly mismanaged Gorman's playing time and given Oli's penchant for making decisions based on personalities that does not bode well.
Now, these issues could be resolved if STL trades N/A again over the coming 2 months, but that remains to be seen.
As for points made earlier in the thread, a couple of corrections are necessary.
Gorman has a well above average arm (both strength and accuracy).
And he has made himself a slightly above average defender overall.
Bottom line - he may overcome the poor coaching and management he has experienced in STL through his own work and talent, but if not, he will need to find success elsewhere.
Finally, to the point made by blackinkbiz above, is there an issue with Gorman's back as well?
Perhaps.
But I would put my money on bad coaching and a poor manager.

The poor coaching and development has produced Donovan, Winn, Nootbaar, Scott, Herrera, Pallante, Helsley, and Liberatore. More on the way. Are they going to miss yes? You are stuck in 2023-2024.

It shows your lack of baseball history.

[Melville]

This is a side effect of succcess. How do you insert him without messing up the karma, the groove, the team work.

In other words he is a victim of- if it ain’t broke don’t fix it or let sleeping dogs lie.

I believe you have hit the nail on the head.
Regrettably, The Marmot is not a very complex thinker, and I suspect you have captured the maximum depth of thought of which he is capable.
Long term strategic thinking has always eluded him.

[An Old Friend]

My concern is the kid has a bad back and if that's the case, well, I hope he earned his college degree.

Ummm… when would he have done that?

[Melville]

Defensively in 2024, his batting run value was 22nd (percentile), baserunning 29th, and fielding 19th. His Range OAA 9th percentile, Arm Strength 14th and Sprint Speed 21st. These are all bottom quartile or close to it....

2025 Range shot up SSS, arm strength about the same 19th and sprint speed 18th.

He isn't much on defense or on the bases. He has power and this season seems to have developed the ability to draw some walks. But is he really some poorly developed prospect or is he, what he is as we see him now. Part-time player who has an explosive bat with a lot of miss. I realize his PA's are ~100 this season.

I don't see all the hype, I don't see a missed opportunity like you all. His xwOBA is league average over his last 100 PA's and with a sharp dip over his last 250.

Last year 616 pitches he posted a -4 run value against the fastball and has the same run value this season at 139 pitches vs the fastball

A just a side note. How in the hell did anyone expect him to play 3rd base all season with below average arm strength? Let's all rejoice that Nado wasn't traded

*** I like him in his current role, I like having that power and ability to walk late in games if an injury occurs or there is a favorable match up. Essentially a pitcher who doesn't have an elite fastball.

Do you sabermetric statisticians just completely overlook the most obvious stats to be deliberately obtuse, or do you truly believe you can find everything in underlying stats?

In his first 689 abs, before the age of 24, Gorman hit 41 HR's, 30 2bs, and drove in 111 RBIs.

Sabremetrics can go F themselves. How many guys in MLB history have put up that much power and production in their first 700 abs before the age of 24?

My guess is less than 100--in the history of MLB. Again that's a guess but very few players do that right out of the gun. Whatever they're doing with him right now, it's not working, and they need to change course, because that kind of power should not be given up on until it's definitely gone.

My concern is the kid has a bad back and if that's the case, well, I hope he earned his college degree.

Gorman may find in his best interest to be traded.
His BABIP is oddly low which indicates he has been hitting into bad luck (Steamer, for example, shows his expected BA right now should be in the .220's - which would be in line with career norms.
(It would also put his OBP at a well above average .350).
This suggests he should be getting a lot more playing time to normalize the outcomes.
His K rate is down, his contact rate in the zone is up, his line drive rate is up, his walk rate is up.
However, his barrel rate is down.
This then also suggests playing time is an issue - he is not seeing enough pitches on a regular basis to be consistent.
The Marmot had badly mismanaged Gorman's playing time and given Oli's penchant for making decisions based on personalities that does not bode well.
Now, these issues could be resolved if STL trades N/A again over the coming 2 months, but that remains to be seen.
As for points made earlier in the thread, a couple of corrections are necessary.
Gorman has a well above average arm (both strength and accuracy).
And he has made himself a slightly above average defender overall.
Bottom line - he may overcome the poor coaching and management he has experienced in STL through his own work and talent, but if not, he will need to find success elsewhere.
Finally, to the point made by blackinkbiz above, is there an issue with Gorman's back as well?
Perhaps.
But I would put my money on bad coaching and a poor manager.

The poor coaching and development has produced Donovan, Winn, Nootbaar, Scott, Herrera, Pallante, Helsley, and Liberatore. More on the way. Are they going to miss yes? You are stuck in 2023-2024.

It shows your lack of baseball history.

More likely you have not had your morning coffee and are not fully alert.
It took them 9 years before finally admitting in the past few weeks that Herrera is not an MLB caliber catcher - and that his bat alone would determine playing time.
It was Pallante, not the staff, who insisted that his success would come as a starter.
Mootbaar is nearly 28 and might finally have a full, though pedestrian, MLB season.
Liberatore is finally finding his footing - in his 4th year after being on a coaching yo-yo which constantly yanked him around.
Donovan arrived in STL as a well-rounded and complete player who needed only to be left alone.
Now - you do have a point concerning Winn and Scott, but it only supports that which I already made.
Both, despite the struggles and slumps that come with being a young player, have been inserted into the daily lineup and their talent has taken over.
Which is what needs to happen with Gorman.
Play him - and let him be the player which best suits his strengths without trying to alter it too much.
Do that - and he will be fine.
You have my personal guarantee.

[Goldfan]

I almost forgot he was even on the team. Did him and Phil maton just go on vacation? Feel like I haven't seen them in weeks

Great question….what happened to ole Maton?

[Bob Kunush]

Maton was reportedly dealing with a bit of a dead arm. The guys on MLB talked about it briefly the other day. Nothing serious likely a result of lack of spring training. He's not feeling his pitches tight now. The coaches know a lot about their players everyday that we dont.

[Bob Kunush]

Is there anything easier than saying one doesn’t see the hype with a once highly regarded prospect hitting under .200 and is barely playing?
He was untouchable in 2021 and 2022 for a reason and had a very good 2023/age 23 season that should have made you excited for his future. He clearly has fallen off the wagon since then.

Gorman is Exhibit A showing the cardinals have not stuck to their stated 2025 plan

+1

I'm not saying Gorman will definitely put it together. But it's ironic that this thread is right next to a Liberatore thread, which is filled with evidence of the difference it can make to simply show confidence and consistency to a young, high potential player who has struggled for years.

How did the people writing off Gorman feel about Liberatore last year? Do those people still wish the Cards would have just made him a reliever?

There are a ton of differences. I felt good about Liberatore last year he made good progress as a pitcher. He became a real asset out of the bullpen. Gorman of the other had floundered all summer with two months of playing time. He has regressed as a hitter. He did little at Memphis or in spring training to show any progress. Libby had a great spring training. He has continued to impress. Gorman has done nothing with his chances and others are playing better. Walker has also struggled but Walker is 22 Gorman is 25. Walker plays a position of need on this team. He is a right handed hitting outfielder. Hevis going to get the chances now Gorman got last summer before being demoted.

If you can't see the differences in the trajectory of these two players you aren't trying to. Those who hate this management are always going to find ways to hate this management.

[bccardsfan]

This is a side effect of succcess. How do you insert him without messing up the karma, the groove, the team work.

In other words he is a victim of- if it ain’t broke don’t fix it or let sleeping dogs lie.

Basically this^. I disagree with Mel, surprising I know:) I think the plan was to give NG and JW many ABs, but then they didn't expect VSII to become a very good MLB quality CFer, nor did they expect Libby to put it together this well, and they certainly didn't expect Ivan to become Pujols lite, nor Donovan to go from steady, decent player to all star career year. So they are in a race for the division title and WC. They need to keep the pedal down. Period. If the young guys regress, or there is a serious injury that derails them, or whatever, and they fall out of the race, then NG gets more ABs. Right now they want to compete, and put butts in the seats. So NG is a victim of the team's success without him. They need to compete to make money.... I don't think there was some serious backtracking on "The Plan". I just think the success of several young players, Donnie going insane, Libby becoming a bonafide #2 SP, has created the situation and they are going to keep the pedal down.... My 2 cents. NG will get his shot again. Nado will be injured, or Donnie, or someone and NG will get 10-15 games to prove he can actually hit the ball this year.

[3dender]

Is there anything easier than saying one doesn’t see the hype with a once highly regarded prospect hitting under .200 and is barely playing?
He was untouchable in 2021 and 2022 for a reason and had a very good 2023/age 23 season that should have made you excited for his future. He clearly has fallen off the wagon since then.

Gorman is Exhibit A showing the cardinals have not stuck to their stated 2025 plan

+1

I'm not saying Gorman will definitely put it together. But it's ironic that this thread is right next to a Liberatore thread, which is filled with evidence of the difference it can make to simply show confidence and consistency to a young, high potential player who has struggled for years.

How did the people writing off Gorman feel about Liberatore last year? Do those people still wish the Cards would have just made him a reliever?

There are a ton of differences. I felt good about Liberatore last year he made good progress as a pitcher. He became a real asset out of the bullpen. Gorman of the other had floundered all summer with two months of playing time. He has regressed as a hitter. He did little at Memphis or in spring training to show any progress. Libby had a great spring training. He has continued to impress. Gorman has done nothing with his chances and others are playing better. Walker has also struggled but Walker is 22 Gorman is 25. Walker plays a position of need on this team. He is a right handed hitting outfielder. Hevis going to get the chances now Gorman got last summer before being demoted.

If you can't see the differences in the trajectory of these two players you aren't trying to. Those who hate this management are always going to find ways to hate this management.

So last year when Libby was doing well in the BP you were clamoring for him to be given a long leash for the rotation? Pardon my skepticism.

[rockondlouie]

Gorman needs to be at Memphis getting AB's, not rotting on the bench

Good job Mo

Agree, Gorman is seeing way too much bench time. He needs to be playing 3B and 2B at Memphis. As of now, I am not seeing him as an heir apparent at 3B for Nado. Glad the Cards have decided so far to keep Nado. I could see Wetherholt or Saggese or both playing 3B or 2B within this season or next.

If they keep him up here, then he's GOT to play 3rd base at least once a week (a day off/week would do NADO good) and 2nd at least once/week too.

They have to be getting close to Memphis time.

I honestly can't fault Oli here for not playing him when the team is on a 15-4 run and only 2 game back.

I've ALWAYS felt MLB is NOT the place you develop players, that's what the minor leagues are for and it appears Gorman's regression means he needs more development time.

[woofy25]

Is there anything easier than saying one doesn’t see the hype with a once highly regarded prospect hitting under .200 and is barely playing?
He was untouchable in 2021 and 2022 for a reason and had a very good 2023/age 23 season that should have made you excited for his future. He clearly has fallen off the wagon since then.

Gorman is Exhibit A showing the cardinals have not stuck to their stated 2025 plan

+1

I'm not saying Gorman will definitely put it together. But it's ironic that this thread is right next to a Liberatore thread, which is filled with evidence of the difference it can make to simply show confidence and consistency to a young, high potential player who has struggled for years.

How did the people writing off Gorman feel about Liberatore last year? Do those people still wish the Cards would have just made him a reliever?

One thing is certain, there is no chance Gorman does put it together by playing him once or twice a week

[woofy25]

Is there anything easier than saying one doesn’t see the hype with a once highly regarded prospect hitting under .200 and is barely playing?
He was untouchable in 2021 and 2022 for a reason and had a very good 2023/age 23 season that should have made you excited for his future. He clearly has fallen off the wagon since then.

Gorman is Exhibit A showing the cardinals have not stuck to their stated 2025 plan

They have done the opposite of sticking to the plan.
And Gorman - among others - are exhibits of that.

Yes. Highly frustrating. At this rate they’re going to go into 2026 not knowing what to do about Gorman. So, they likely trade him and potentially watch him hit 30 HRs for 7 years somewhere else. And if I’m being really cynical, he comes back to the Cardinals at 35

[Bob Kunush]

Is there anything easier than saying one doesn’t see the hype with a once highly regarded prospect hitting under .200 and is barely playing?
He was untouchable in 2021 and 2022 for a reason and had a very good 2023/age 23 season that should have made you excited for his future. He clearly has fallen off the wagon since then.

Gorman is Exhibit A showing the cardinals have not stuck to their stated 2025 plan

+1

I'm not saying Gorman will definitely put it together. But it's ironic that this thread is right next to a Liberatore thread, which is filled with evidence of the difference it can make to simply show confidence and consistency to a young, high potential player who has struggled for years.

How did the people writing off Gorman feel about Liberatore last year? Do those people still wish the Cards would have just made him a reliever?

There are a ton of differences. I felt good about Liberatore last year he made good progress as a pitcher. He became a real asset out of the bullpen. Gorman of the other had floundered all summer with two months of playing time. He has regressed as a hitter. He did little at Memphis or in spring training to show any progress. Libby had a great spring training. He has continued to impress. Gorman has done nothing with his chances and others are playing better. Walker has also struggled but Walker is 22 Gorman is 25. Walker plays a position of need on this team. He is a right handed hitting outfielder. Hevis going to get the chances now Gorman got last summer before being demoted.

If you can't see the differences in the trajectory of these two players you aren't trying to. Those who hate this management are always going to find ways to hate this management.

So last year when Libby was doing well in the BP you were clamoring for him to be given a long leash for the rotation? Pardon my skepticism.

Actually in early spring training I posted several times that Libatore, Pallante, and McGreevy should all be in the rotation this year and given long leashes. I advocated for Fedde to be traded or Mikolas to be moved on from. I have gladly been wrong about Mikolas. It always made sense for the team in transition to try to establish Libatore as a starter. He was still young and many lefty starters got off to so so starts in their career.

[moose-and-squirrel]

Gorman has a weak arm.. lol

[riff raff]

Gorman should have never come north.
It looks to me like the league has adjusted on how they pitch to him, but he has not progressed beyond that. It happens all the time.