Matthews

[aslord]

Ignoring, for a moment, the real world hurdles of Toronto trading him (are they entering a re-whatever?) and Matthews waiving his NMC, it's an interesting thought exercise.

As I mentioned in a post recently, the Blues have two windows of contention. An immediate one that is for the next year or two (while Binner is under contract, Fowler is here and/or extended, and before Parayko gets too far into his 30s, and while Thomas and Kyrou are at their peak), and then another window that is probably 3-4 years from starting (these could be contiguous and we just transition smoothly from one to the other) when our young players become the new core and our existing core transitions to more complementary players due to age.

Matthews fits our first window perfectly. He plays our position of biggest need and is an elite option at that position. Having him and Thomas gives you two very good centers both of whom are defensively responsible. He's under contract for only three years at a rate that is right in line for elite players now, and will look even more reasonable in the next few years. If the Blues want to jump a few spots ahead in their building of a competitive roster (not just 5% better but 10-15%) Matthews is the player that moves the needle for this roster to get close to the best in the west . . . depending on the cost.

That's where this thought exercise gets tricky. What is Toronto's motivation? Are they retooling the roster with cap space and assets from Matthews trade to build around Nylander (Marner and Taveras are FAs)? Are they entering a quick rebuild and want to be competitive again after a lone down year or two? Are they cleaning house and blowing everything up? That answer would affect what type of assets they would be looking to acquire in return.

I think our 1st and a high end prospect (Dvo, most likely) would be a starting point for any trade package, and then you go from there. We almost certainly have to send a contract back, or move one in another deal to fit Matthews in under the cap, so that has to be considered.

Again, incredibly unlikely to happen, but an interesting thought exercise/fantasy.

if you're TOR would you take a mid/late 1st and DVO for matthews? even if that is 'just to start' the add would have to be tremendous

so if YOU are TOR, what would you take for him?

Of course a mid 1st and DVO isn't going to be accepted, nor the offer. yes, the other pieces would have to be valuable but would vary depending on the timeline Toronto is pursuing.

But the trade also has to make sense for the Blues which means you can't blow up the team in the short term adding Matthews. In part because we still have to catch up a bit to other top teams that could maybe offer a very good player in a trade where Matthews is only a slight upgrade, but that's all they need. Not sure many contenders actually meet that criteria but just putting it out there.

I would not offer Thomas, Binnington, Parayko, Fowler, Broberg, or Holloway. Anybody else is on the table. Do they want more picks because they traded away all of theirs? I'd include future 1sts no problem. Do they want prospects like recent first round picks? Do they want young NHL players like Neighbors, Bolduc, or Snuggy? Do they want to compete quickly and want a player that can step in day one and play on a top line or two, like Kyrou or Buch?

Would Toronto accept a package of some combination of those assets? Not sure. Would it be the best offer they could get? Again, not sure. Kyrou + is brought up all the time in discussions for Brady, and many posters scoff at paying that much for a winger who is signed for 3 years (vs. Kyrou's six remaining years of control) at a similar rate. Matthews is also signed for only three years, but at $5.1M more than Kyrou. With the cap space you are getting Kyrou plus money to sign a decent player or to upgrade from a decent to a good FA with that space. How tempting would Kyrou, DVO, and a 1st be for Toronto? What teams can and would top that offer? I don't know, honestly curious, I know a poster in one of the other threads broke down a lot of potential offers for Matthews (except one from the Blues). What about DVO, our 1st, and a young player (pick a winger: Neighbors, Bolduc, Snuggy)? That gives Toronto a ton of cap space (they might have to take a short term contract back, or we dump that in a separate move), a player for 2025, a player that's probably ready in 2025 or 2026 in DVO and a 1st. Again, I'm sure other teams can match or exceed that, but would they?

Would Toronto trade Matthews in the East? Would they trade him in Canada? Would Matthews accept a trade to a non-playoff team? Would the team have to be "more of a contender" than the Blues? How many of those teams have the cap space to take on Matthews, even with the rising cap, without gutting their roster?

I'm in for Dvorsky, Kyrou and a first if that gets it done. Anything with Thomas is a hard pass. The point is to acquire a second center to compliment Thomas, not replace him.

[callitwhatyouwant]

Thomas is a star in this league. It's been going for the last 2-3 years that he is one of the more underrated players in the league by the players. This season, the media made sure to highlight that. His contract is gold right now. The only knock in the guys game is that he is a little apprehensive to shoot the puck. If he ever turned that corner, he has shown to have a great shot, and would quickly be threatening that 100 point mark. There's no reason to entertain a Thomas trade for any player in the league because of the contract difference. Toronto would ask for you to sweeten the pot for Thomas for Matthews, but why as the Blues would you sweeten the pot for a 6 million dollar difference for the 1 for 1 trade and then losing more assets that are NHL caliber presumably?

The math just doesn't check out. Think about it this way, Thomas last 2 seasons 1.15ppg and 1.04ppg. Matthews 1.15 and 1.32. So they both had the same last season dealing with injury, and is the difference between what you expect matthews to give you the difference between a Thomas and a Snuggs? Highly doubtful.

[rbirules]

I'm in for Dvorsky, Kyrou and a first if that gets it done. Anything with Thomas is a hard pass. The point is to acquire a second center to compliment Thomas, not replace him.

Exactly. 2025 1st and any two of: Kyrou, Buch, Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Bolduc, or Neighbors (any other top prospect for that matter) for Matthews and I pull the trigger (though some packages would be harder to swallow than others).

[thegibby.]

Toronto should be looking to move out Nylander and Rielly someway, somehow. I'm afraid Matthews is a 25gl man without Marner.


JMO

[a smell of green grass]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

[rbirules]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

DVO is similar to Thompson, no? Maybe even higher rated than Thompson was at the time. I'm suggesting a 2025 1st (not 2026 1st where you have to wait a year). A 2nd three years in the future is nothing, feel free to add a 2028 2nd round pick. Is the current Kyrou not more valuable than Berglund and Sobotka circa 2018? Kyrou scored more points and goals than Sobotka and Berglund had combined in 2018, they were 25-30 point players in 2018.

So what would you offer for Matthews? Also ROR was signed for 5 years at $5.5M, IIRC, Matthews is signed for three years at $13.5M, so the contracts being acquired aren't exactly the same (% of cap).

[bluetunehead]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

DVO is similar to Thompson, no? Maybe even higher rated than Thompson was at the time. I'm suggesting a 2025 1st (not 2026 1st where you have to wait a year). A 2nd three years in the future is nothing, feel free to add a 2028 2nd round pick. Is the current Kyrou not more valuable than Berglund and Sobotka circa 2018? Kyrou scored more points and goals than Sobotka and Berglund had combined in 2018, they were 25-30 point players in 2018.

So what would you offer for Matthews? Also ROR was signed for 5 years at $5.5M, IIRC, Matthews is signed for three years at $13.5M, so the contracts being acquired aren't exactly the same (% of cap).

ROR had a 7.5M contract at the time he was traded to the Blues, which was 10.27% of the cap when it started.

Matthews contract was 15.06% of the cap when it started.

[a smell of green grass]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

DVO is similar to Thompson, no? Maybe even higher rated than Thompson was at the time. I'm suggesting a 2025 1st (not 2026 1st where you have to wait a year). A 2nd three years in the future is nothing, feel free to add a 2028 2nd round pick. Is the current Kyrou not more valuable than Berglund and Sobotka circa 2018? Kyrou scored more points and goals than Sobotka and Berglund had combined in 2018, they were 25-30 point players in 2018.

So what would you offer for Matthews? Also ROR was signed for 5 years at $5.5M, IIRC, Matthews is signed for three years at $13.5M, so the contracts being acquired aren't exactly the same (% of cap).

I think Army gave up a lot to acquire ROR, because he felt that was a key missing piece, and I think that he was right.

In 2025, I don't see Army doing that again for Matthews. We're not that close to a CUP. Plus Matthews wants to be a 1C.

Matthews is better than ROR, but will there be another team that will give up the farm for a chance to win the Cup? Very few GMs are caught with their pants so far down as Army.

I'm guessing that Matthews stays in TOR.

[blues2112]

I'm in for Dvorsky, Kyrou and a first if that gets it done. Anything with Thomas is a hard pass. The point is to acquire a second center to compliment Thomas, not replace him.

Exactly. 2025 1st and any two of: Kyrou, Buch, Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Bolduc, or Neighbors (any other top prospect for that matter) for Matthews and I pull the trigger (though some packages would be harder to swallow than others).

Please tell me you're kidding.

[rbirules]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

DVO is similar to Thompson, no? Maybe even higher rated than Thompson was at the time. I'm suggesting a 2025 1st (not 2026 1st where you have to wait a year). A 2nd three years in the future is nothing, feel free to add a 2028 2nd round pick. Is the current Kyrou not more valuable than Berglund and Sobotka circa 2018? Kyrou scored more points and goals than Sobotka and Berglund had combined in 2018, they were 25-30 point players in 2018.

So what would you offer for Matthews? Also ROR was signed for 5 years at $5.5M, IIRC, Matthews is signed for three years at $13.5M, so the contracts being acquired aren't exactly the same (% of cap).

ROR had a 7.5M contract at the time he was traded to the Blues, which was 10.27% of the cap when it started.

Matthews contract was 15.06% of the cap when it started.

Thanks for that info.

[rbirules]

I'm in for Dvorsky, Kyrou and a first if that gets it done. Anything with Thomas is a hard pass. The point is to acquire a second center to compliment Thomas, not replace him.

Exactly. 2025 1st and any two of: Kyrou, Buch, Dvorsky, Snuggerud, Bolduc, or Neighbors (any other top prospect for that matter) for Matthews and I pull the trigger (though some packages would be harder to swallow than others).

Please tell me you're kidding.

What about my several responses in this thread gave you the impression I was joking?

if you think this is a (massive) overpay, then say that and provide a reason for thinking that way and a counter offer. Another poster thought one of those scenarios (1st, Kyrou, DVO) was an underpay.

Are you not sold on Matthews? Think his cap hit is too high to warrant such a return? Not enough control to give up long term assets like Kyrou and DVO. Maybe I'm undervaluing Kyrou and/or DVO. maybe you are scoffing at some of the other players I included in the list, though we have a glut of wings and need a center. I'm open to arguments for a lesser package, and would be thrilled if we could get him for less than that.

So far your contributions to this thread is a single comment of "no movement clause", your condescending second response didn't add much more to the discussion. Hopefully the third time is a charm.

Edit: As I said in my first post the starting point is probably our 2025 1st and DVO. Maybe it should be 2025 1st, one of DVO or Kyrou, and then a lesser prospect (i.e. not Snuggerud or Bolduc). Seems like that would be outbid potentially, I could be wrong, I might be underestimating the effect of Matthews short term and high cap contract.

[BluesDom]

Matthews is untouchable imo.

[rbirules]

On July 1, 2018, O'Reilly was traded to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for Tage Thompson, Vladimír Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, a 2019 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick.

Matthews should bring more than what St Louis paid for ROR. It will be interesting to see what Matthews brings.

DVO is similar to Thompson, no? Maybe even higher rated than Thompson was at the time. I'm suggesting a 2025 1st (not 2026 1st where you have to wait a year). A 2nd three years in the future is nothing, feel free to add a 2028 2nd round pick. Is the current Kyrou not more valuable than Berglund and Sobotka circa 2018? Kyrou scored more points and goals than Sobotka and Berglund had combined in 2018, they were 25-30 point players in 2018.

So what would you offer for Matthews? Also ROR was signed for 5 years at $5.5M, IIRC, Matthews is signed for three years at $13.5M, so the contracts being acquired aren't exactly the same (% of cap).

I think Army gave up a lot to acquire ROR, because he felt that was a key missing piece, and I think that he was right.

In 2025, I don't see Army doing that again for Matthews. We're not that close to a CUP. Plus Matthews wants to be a 1C.

Matthews is better than ROR, but will there be another team that will give up the farm for a chance to win the Cup? Very few GMs are caught with their pants so far down as Army.

I'm guessing that Matthews stays in TOR.

I'm not saying we become cup favorites with Matthews (without knowing what we give up from our roster), but he gives us a great 1-2 at center, we are deep at wing, and have a solid defensive core with a short window and a good goalie.

Army specifically said in his post season presser we need a 200 ft offensive player. Ideally that player is a center. Matthews fits that to a tee.

So let Matthews be the 1C. We had Schenn centering our best wingers this year, and had two scoring lines and then a drop off. Mathews and Thomas will both get plenty of playing time on the top two lines.

There's definitely a chance another team outbids the Blues . . . if he's put on the market which is anybody's guess.

[TheJackBurton]

With Marner and Tavares both likely going to UFA there is no shot Matthews goes anywhere.

Now if they re-sign both, then if you want to improve your team and quickly I'm absolutely putting him on the block.

You can potentially get 3-4 players for him with 2 of them likely be top 6 forwards.

If he were to become available I would expect Vegas to put a full court pressure on Toronto and have Petro as one of the players.

[smilinjoefission]

You don't trade Thomas

[DawgDad]

You don't trade Thomas

Don't worry, nobody is going to trade him in the foreseeable future. This all armchair GM stuff.