At what point do you send Walker down? He ain’t it

[ecleme22]

“Just leave x young player alone and give them 500 at bats / 30 starts so we know what we have.”

I find it funny when a CTer says this.

As you can see with Jordan Walker, the mlb season is very long. And it’s ridiculous to watch futility for 6 months.

(I’m not for sending JW down just yet. I’ll start w a little less playing time.)

So don't send him down, just stick him on the bench so he can't practice against actual competition. Brilliant.

A little less PT isn’t “sticking him on the bench.” Calm down.

The last two weeks he played 4 games (5/4-5/10) and 3 games (4/27-5/3). How much less PT do you want him getting?

Status quo for now

[3dender]

Time to send him down but I’m a little confused on who plays RF. I like Donovan at 2nd. So Noot stays in LF.

Donovan is a far better outfielder than Nootbaar.
If folks want to see Walker sent to AAA, then Donovan becomes the LF and Nootbaar moves to RF.
The outfield in an absolute mess of roster construction with zero RH bats available if Walker is not around.
Zero question the staff should be working with Herrera in preparation for giving him a few low stress looks in RF.
And if Walker is not on the roster, obviously it would be necessary to give Barrero some corner outfield looks as well.

My eyes tell me they are both average to above average fielding outfielders. Which is fine for a corner outfielder, imho. However, I am curious why you consider Donovan a far better outfielder than Noot? Understand, I'm not necessarily disagreeing...I just don't see much difference between the two and am curious which metric you are looking at or what your eyes are seeing?

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

[3dender]

“Just leave x young player alone and give them 500 at bats / 30 starts so we know what we have.”

I find it funny when a CTer says this.

As you can see with Jordan Walker, the mlb season is very long. And it’s ridiculous to watch futility for 6 months.

(I’m not for sending JW down just yet. I’ll start w a little less playing time.)

So don't send him down, just stick him on the bench so he can't practice against actual competition. Brilliant.

A little less PT isn’t “sticking him on the bench.” Calm down.

The last two weeks he played 4 games (5/4-5/10) and 3 games (4/27-5/3). How much less PT do you want him getting?

Status quo for now

So then they've already been doing for two weeks what you said you'd "start" with... what's your next step?

[Monsieur De Treville]

Time to send him down but I’m a little confused on who plays RF. I like Donovan at 2nd. So Noot stays in LF.

Donovan is a far better outfielder than Nootbaar.
If folks want to see Walker sent to AAA, then Donovan becomes the LF and Nootbaar moves to RF.
The outfield in an absolute mess of roster construction with zero RH bats available if Walker is not around.
Zero question the staff should be working with Herrera in preparation for giving him a few low stress looks in RF.
And if Walker is not on the roster, obviously it would be necessary to give Barrero some corner outfield looks as well.

My eyes tell me they are both average to above average fielding outfielders. Which is fine for a corner outfielder, imho. However, I am curious why you consider Donovan a far better outfielder than Noot? Understand, I'm not necessarily disagreeing...I just don't see much difference between the two and am curious which metric you are looking at or what your eyes are seeing?

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

So it's possible Hurdy Gurdy isn't a far better outfielder?
I think both play good corner outfield defense. Just don't see much difference between the two.

[3dender]

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

So it's possible Hurdy Gurdy isn't a far better outfielder?
I think both play good corner outfield defense. Just don't see much difference between the two.

Neither of them is embarrassing themselves out there, but the numbers say they're not necessarily as good as some folks are giving them credit for. My eye test tells me Donovan has somewhat more range and closing ability, while Noot has a much better arm. But that's just one pair of eyes

[Monsieur De Treville]

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

So it's possible Hurdy Gurdy isn't a far better outfielder?
I think both play good corner outfield defense. Just don't see much difference between the two.

Neither of them is embarrassing themselves out there, but the numbers say they're not necessarily as good as some folks are giving them credit for. My eye test tells me Donovan has somewhat more range and closing ability, while Noot has a much better arm. But that's just one pair of eyes

But...I don't think a great fielding corner outfielder makes much difference vs a decent fielding corner outfielder. I mean seriously, how many times is a game turned around by a great play with a corner outfielder? It's all about the bat, IMHO.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

I think it's getting to the point where you gotta think about sending him down. If we were terrible then I guess you could keep him up here and let him struggle. And this year is a reset year or whatever as well. But even with all that, is it getting to the point where this is just too demoralizing to him and he needs a reset for himself? He's in the conversation for one of the worst everyday players in the majors right now.

He's a few days from turning 23. We finally have some developmental staff in the minors right now. Would sending him down there to get right be the worst thing for him? I think we need to do whatever we can to fix him. If he can hit to his potential, or even close to it, that is huge for this team. And he can play defense now! I hope they can fix him.

[Melville]

Time to send him down but I’m a little confused on who plays RF. I like Donovan at 2nd. So Noot stays in LF.

Donovan is a far better outfielder than Nootbaar.
If folks want to see Walker sent to AAA, then Donovan becomes the LF and Nootbaar moves to RF.
The outfield in an absolute mess of roster construction with zero RH bats available if Walker is not around.
Zero question the staff should be working with Herrera in preparation for giving him a few low stress looks in RF.
And if Walker is not on the roster, obviously it would be necessary to give Barrero some corner outfield looks as well.

My eyes tell me they are both average to above average fielding outfielders. Which is fine for a corner outfielder, imho. However, I am curious why you consider Donovan a far better outfielder than Noot? Understand, I'm not necessarily disagreeing...I just don't see much difference between the two and am curious which metric you are looking at or what your eyes are seeing?

A very fair question.
Even though they rate nearly identical as LF (Nootbaar -6 DRS per year / Donovan -7), I base my conclusion on 3 factors (quick note: I am skeptical of the DRS metric and similar arbitrary measurements with all defenders since these attempts are wildly imprecise).
One, Nootbaar really struggles with balls coming off the wall, either fair hits down the line coming off the foul wall in LF, balls bouncing around in the corner, or the balls over his head coming off the LF wall.
He often gets too close or anticipates the wrong carom.
Two, overall, Donovan is fundamentally and situationally the best player on the team and simply has better anticipation and decision making than any other Cardinal.
Three, Donovan is a GG winner, so many knowledgeable people recognize hsi defensive skill set.

[sikeston bulldog2]

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

So it's possible Hurdy Gurdy isn't a far better outfielder?
I think both play good corner outfield defense. Just don't see much difference between the two.

Neither of them is embarrassing themselves out there, but the numbers say they're not necessarily as good as some folks are giving them credit for. My eye test tells me Donovan has somewhat more range and closing ability, while Noot has a much better arm. But that's just one pair of eyes

But...I don't think a great fielding corner outfielder makes much difference vs a decent fielding corner outfielder. I mean seriously, how many times is a game turned around by a great play with a corner outfielder? It's all about the bat, IMHO.

You two are having a fine discussion. An example to the board. I’m intrigued by the - how many times a game is the game turned around on a fine throw from outfielder. Rarely.
But it’s the thought that that cannon exists as to why runners don’t run on the outfielder. Maybe that plays into it.

[blackinkbiz]

I'll concur with what all the MLB "experts" have reported since the Cards made the runway declaration.

The only way to find out what you have with these kids is to give them a full season of at-bats, but it comes with one caveat. With each month that passes, you have to see some sort of progression so the player shows you he's adapting and on the right track. If you ever see two consecutive months of negative results, reassess whether they'd be better served at AAA.

That's paraphrasing what I heard on talk shows, podcasts, insider news, blah blah blah. Personally, I've seen enough. JWalk and Gorman are swinging themselves into such deep black holes, I'm concerned they'll start taking others down with them. Not really but sounds good for effect.

Send them down!

[rockondlouie]

When/If Walker and/or Gorman starts to really look like they're beat mentally from having no success, then you send them down.

If they're playing hard and still carrying a positive attitude, then they stay up.

Other than that I think Mo has given Oli marching orders to play them, especially Walker.

[Monsieur De Treville]

Time to send him down but I’m a little confused on who plays RF. I like Donovan at 2nd. So Noot stays in LF.

Donovan is a far better outfielder than Nootbaar.
If folks want to see Walker sent to AAA, then Donovan becomes the LF and Nootbaar moves to RF.
The outfield in an absolute mess of roster construction with zero RH bats available if Walker is not around.
Zero question the staff should be working with Herrera in preparation for giving him a few low stress looks in RF.
And if Walker is not on the roster, obviously it would be necessary to give Barrero some corner outfield looks as well.

My eyes tell me they are both average to above average fielding outfielders. Which is fine for a corner outfielder, imho. However, I am curious why you consider Donovan a far better outfielder than Noot? Understand, I'm not necessarily disagreeing...I just don't see much difference between the two and am curious which metric you are looking at or what your eyes are seeing?

A very fair question.
Even though they rate nearly identical as LF (Nootbaar -6 DRS per year / Donovan -7), I base my conclusion on 3 factors (quick note: I am skeptical of the DRS metric and similar arbitrary measurements with all defenders since these attempts are wildly imprecise).
One, Nootbaar really struggles with balls coming off the wall, either fair hits down the line coming off the foul wall in LF, balls bouncing around in the corner, or the balls over his head coming off the LF wall.
He often gets too close or anticipates the wrong carom.
Two, overall, Donovan is fundamentally and situationally the best player on the team and simply has better anticipation and decision making than any other Cardinal.
Three, Donovan is a GG winner, so many knowledgeable people recognize hsi defensive skill set.

Fair enough.

[hmoss859]

I assume Walker gets runway at least thru end of May.

They face a ton of lefties coming up too

Sanchez
Luzardo
Ragans
Skubal

In the next few games.

[3dender]

I assume Walker gets runway at least thru end of May.

They face a ton of lefties coming up too

Sanchez
Luzardo
Ragans
Skubal

In the next few games.

Let's hope none of them have decent changeups, cause he also can't hit those from LHP (basically the equivalent of a RHP slider for him).

[Melville]

FWIW FanGraphs has Donovan as -1 OAA in LF and Noot as +1 in RF.

So it's possible Hurdy Gurdy isn't a far better outfielder?
I think both play good corner outfield defense. Just don't see much difference between the two.

Neither of them is embarrassing themselves out there, but the numbers say they're not necessarily as good as some folks are giving them credit for. My eye test tells me Donovan has somewhat more range and closing ability, while Noot has a much better arm. But that's just one pair of eyes

But...I don't think a great fielding corner outfielder makes much difference vs a decent fielding corner outfielder. I mean seriously, how many times is a game turned around by a great play with a corner outfielder? It's all about the bat, IMHO.

You two are having a fine discussion. An example to the board. I’m intrigued by the - how many times a game is the game turned around on a fine throw from outfielder. Rarely.
But it’s the thought that that cannon exists as to why runners don’t run on the outfielder. Maybe that plays into it.

I don't know that it is rare for a quality outfield throw to impact a game.
By definition, many outfield throws are nothing more than getting the ball back into the infield after a single.
But when an outfielder attempts to make a purposeful, quality throw it is always at a significant moment - taking away a double, limiting first-to third advancements, preventing a runner from tagging and advancement, etc.
Almost never shows in a box score - but significantly impacts the game (not just defensively but also on the pitching game).
By the way - agree with you that this is a high-quality dialogue.

[Adam2]

I assume Walker gets runway at least thru end of May.

They face a ton of lefties coming up too

Sanchez
Luzardo
Ragans
Skubal

In the next few games.

Let's hope none of them have decent changeups, cause he also can't hit those from LHP (basically the equivalent of a RHP slider for him).

Those lefties are going to be difficult to deal with righty or lefty