Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑21 Apr 2025 10:30 am
Unsurprisingly, Fantasy Pros continue to rank mattmitchl44 #1 in ROS projections. Cool Papa Con has moved up from #15 to #13.
I would say my entire team - in particular Soto (Yahoo preseason rank #8, actual to date #182), Bohm (#136 vs. #858), Turner (#25 vs. #310), Greene (#101 vs. #376), McLain (#121 vs. #356), Pasquantino (#132 vs. #632), Taylor Ward (#176 vs. #435), Toglia (#185 vs. #610), Correa (#215 vs. #884), Sale (#38 vs. #628), and Kirby (inj.) have vastly underperformed so far. When 8 of your players taken in the first 10 rounds, plus some, are underperforming for a month, it is going to be a tough start.
When your entire foundation of "blue chip players" is failing, there is no fixing that.
You do have some underperforming players. But if you’re counting Correa, Taylor Ward and Toglia amongst your “blue chip” players, your assessments are in need of repair
Not "blue chip" in those cases necessarily, but ~Top 200 guys or Top 15 draft round guys in our 15 team draft. Expect them to be much better contributors than they have been.
I drafted 10 batters in the first 18 rounds and one of them (Matt Chapman, Round 10) is actually playing up to expectations.
You have a lot of hit or miss guys, like Torres last year. Toglia is one that could be all miss. Chapman’s had done seasons where he’s barely been rosterable in shallower leagues, so you’re lucky he’s being productive.
Soto,Turner, Pasquatch and Bohm are the guys you can expect to meaningfully improve. Not so sure about the rest.
Riley Green should definitely improve on a .680 OPS. Correa should improve on a .528 OPS. Toglia should improve on a .588 OPS.
Those are kind of ridiculous compared to reasonable expectations. They are all at least .100 to .150 OPS short of just conservative expectations.
Toglia doesn’t have the three year averages to give you any kind of baseline expectations.
Agree on Correa & Greene… but like Chapman, Correa has had some seasons where he’s barely worth rostering.
I think you’ll improve in the standings, but your roster isn’t what Fantasy Pros might make you believe.
Arguably, however, not just FP.
Even Yahoo projects Green .813 OPS (+.133 over current), Correa .804 OPS (+.276 over current), Toglia .749 OPS (+.161 over current), Ward .787 OPS (+.143 over current), etc. over remaining games.
And that's not even Soto, Bohm, Pasquantino, and Turner.
No, I'm not going to trade any of them to you cheap, no matter how much you talk them down.
Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑21 Apr 2025 10:30 am
Unsurprisingly, Fantasy Pros continue to rank mattmitchl44 #1 in ROS projections. Cool Papa Con has moved up from #15 to #13.
I would say my entire team - in particular Soto (Yahoo preseason rank #8, actual to date #182), Bohm (#136 vs. #858), Turner (#25 vs. #310), Greene (#101 vs. #376), McLain (#121 vs. #356), Pasquantino (#132 vs. #632), Taylor Ward (#176 vs. #435), Toglia (#185 vs. #610), Correa (#215 vs. #884), Sale (#38 vs. #628), and Kirby (inj.) have vastly underperformed so far. When 8 of your players taken in the first 10 rounds, plus some, are underperforming for a month, it is going to be a tough start.
When your entire foundation of "blue chip players" is failing, there is no fixing that.
You do have some underperforming players. But if you’re counting Correa, Taylor Ward and Toglia amongst your “blue chip” players, your assessments are in need of repair
Not "blue chip" in those cases necessarily, but ~Top 200 guys or Top 15 draft round guys in our 15 team draft. Expect them to be much better contributors than they have been.
I drafted 10 batters in the first 18 rounds and one of them (Matt Chapman, Round 10) is actually playing up to expectations.
You have a lot of hit or miss guys, like Torres last year. Toglia is one that could be all miss. Chapman’s had done seasons where he’s barely been rosterable in shallower leagues, so you’re lucky he’s being productive.
Soto,Turner, Pasquatch and Bohm are the guys you can expect to meaningfully improve. Not so sure about the rest.
Riley Green should definitely improve on a .680 OPS. Correa should improve on a .528 OPS. Toglia should improve on a .588 OPS.
Those are kind of ridiculous compared to reasonable expectations. They are all at least .100 to .150 OPS short of just conservative expectations.
Toglia doesn’t have the three year averages to give you any kind of baseline expectations.
Agree on Correa & Greene… but like Chapman, Correa has had some seasons where he’s barely worth rostering.
I think you’ll improve in the standings, but your roster isn’t what Fantasy Pros might make you believe.
Arguably, however, not just FP.
Even Yahoo projects Green .813 OPS (+.133 over current), Correa .804 OPS (+.276 over current), Toglia .749 OPS (+.161 over current), Ward .787 OPS (+.143 over current), etc. over remaining games.
And that's not even Soto, Bohm, Pasquantino, and Turner.
No, I'm not going to trade any of them to you cheap, no matter how much you talk them down.
I wouldn’t take most of them if they were on waivers.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 May 2025 14:40 pm
It's kind of wild that, right now, we don't have any teams between 102.5 and 81 pts.
With 8 teams over 100 points, it seems like we might have a more balanced league than last year. That is unless more teams start trading away their first round picks for waiver wire randos.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 May 2025 14:40 pm
It's kind of wild that, right now, we don't have any teams between 102.5 and 81 pts.
With 8 teams over 100 points, it seems like we might have a more balanced league than last year. That is unless more teams start trading away their first round picks for waiver wire randos.
Two waiver wire pickups (Smith #78, Goodman #161) who have been more valuable so far this year than Rodriguez (#207) (or Soto (#193), Greene (#188), Turner (#187), Chapman (#212), etc.) so far this year.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑27 Apr 2025 14:45 pmNo, I'm not going to trade any of them to you cheap, no matter how much you talk them down.
How much talking down of Julio Rodriguez did you need to do to get him for two guys you plucked from waivers?
Seriously… I’d like to hear why you think this is a fair trade.
I did not offer that trade. That trade was offered to me and I accepted.
That's wild. I want someone to offer me a first rounder for waiver guys!
I shared this with Quincy... I can see the reasoning of the deal from his perspective if I squint, but it's an awful deal for him on the surface simply based on he's moving his 1st round pick a month into the season for two guys that were available on waivers. He's selling a stock he bought for $100 for $15. You're buying his dump hoping it goes back to $100.
Julio... for what it's worth... is weird. He's a first round pick based on 2023 and September of 2024. He's too young to be regressing how he is, but his underlying metrics have certainly pulled back. Just my opinion, but the optics of the trade are bad mostly because of where he was drafted. I didn't have a first round grade on him and didn't target him on any of my 3 teams because I thought he was overvalued. Even if he's a 3rd rounder, though, this is a bad deal.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 May 2025 14:40 pm
It's kind of wild that, right now, we don't have any teams between 102.5 and 81 pts.
With 8 teams over 100 points, it seems like we might have a more balanced league than last year. That is unless more teams start trading away their first round picks for waiver wire randos.
Two waiver wire pickups (Smith #78, Goodman #161) who have been more valuable so far this year than Rodriguez (#207) (or Soto (#193), Greene (#188), Turner (#187), Chapman (#212), etc.) so far this year.
So you wouldn’t have any qualms if I traded Wilmer Flores for Gunnar Henderson?
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑27 Apr 2025 14:45 pmNo, I'm not going to trade any of them to you cheap, no matter how much you talk them down.
How much talking down of Julio Rodriguez did you need to do to get him for two guys you plucked from waivers?
Seriously… I’d like to hear why you think this is a fair trade.
I did not offer that trade. That trade was offered to me and I accepted.
That's wild. I want someone to offer me a first rounder for waiver guys!
I shared this with Quincy... I can see the reasoning of the deal from his perspective if I squint, but it's an awful deal for him on the surface simply based on he's moving his 1st round pick a month into the season for two guys that were available on waivers. He's selling a stock he bought for $100 for $15. You're buying his dump hoping it goes back to $100.
Julio... for what it's worth... is weird. He's a first round pick based on 2023 and September of 2024. He's too young to be regressing how he is, but his underlying metrics have certainly pulled back. Just my opinion, but the optics of the trade are bad mostly because of where he was drafted. I didn't have a first round grade on him and didn't target him on any of my 3 teams because I thought he was overvalued. Even if he's a 3rd rounder, though, this is a bad deal.
For the record, I am not vetoing the deal.
Under what circumstances do you think it’s appropriate to veto?
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑27 Apr 2025 14:45 pmNo, I'm not going to trade any of them to you cheap, no matter how much you talk them down.
How much talking down of Julio Rodriguez did you need to do to get him for two guys you plucked from waivers?
Seriously… I’d like to hear why you think this is a fair trade.
I did not offer that trade. That trade was offered to me and I accepted.
That's wild. I want someone to offer me a first rounder for waiver guys!
I shared this with Quincy... I can see the reasoning of the deal from his perspective if I squint, but it's an awful deal for him on the surface simply based on he's moving his 1st round pick a month into the season for two guys that were available on waivers. He's selling a stock he bought for $100 for $15. You're buying his dump hoping it goes back to $100.
Julio... for what it's worth... is weird. He's a first round pick based on 2023 and September of 2024. He's too young to be regressing how he is, but his underlying metrics have certainly pulled back. Just my opinion, but the optics of the trade are bad mostly because of where he was drafted. I didn't have a first round grade on him and didn't target him on any of my 3 teams because I thought he was overvalued. Even if he's a 3rd rounder, though, this is a bad deal.
For the record, I am not vetoing the deal.
Under what circumstances do you think it’s appropriate to veto?
I thought we had that conversation last year. Basically, even if you believe based on your own reasoning that a trade is "unfair," you have to give managers the chance to make their own valuations.
If someone were trading a blue chip player who is playing well (e.g., Aaron Judge) for two or three replacement level guys who aren't even playing well, then I think you have to say something.
At least in this case there is a logic - Smith and Goodman have been productive this year. I'm willing to trade them because I expect they won't keep up their current pace - but I could be wrong about that and Dirty could be right. Likewise, I'm hoping that Rodriguez's talent gets him out of hole he's been in this year (and to a good extent last year as well - when his fantasy productivity was saved mostly by his 24 SB). But I could be wrong about that.
According to Yahoo, Rodriguez was only the #102 player in our league for all of 2024, and is only #207 so far this year. So he seems far from a slam dunk to be remotely close to 1st round pick production.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 May 2025 14:40 pm
It's kind of wild that, right now, we don't have any teams between 102.5 and 81 pts.
With 8 teams over 100 points, it seems like we might have a more balanced league than last year. That is unless more teams start trading away their first round picks for waiver wire randos.
Two waiver wire pickups (Smith #78, Goodman #161) who have been more valuable so far this year than Rodriguez (#207) (or Soto (#193), Greene (#188), Turner (#187), Chapman (#212), etc.) so far this year.
So you wouldn’t have any qualms if I traded Wilmer Flores for Gunnar Henderson?
You are welcome to try. Henderson, however, was really good last year (#9 in our league) - and has started to turn it around recently this year - so I doubt you get much done on that front.
