The reality of a contending team

[imadangman]

From 2000-2006 we won 95, 93, 97, 85, 105, 100, 83 (WS) games. Any of those teams from 2000-06 were in position to potentially win a WS. Some of the teams arguably should have. The 83 win team was the one that won it.

Even after that. From 2007-2016 you had 78, 86, 91, 86, 90 (WS), 88, 97, 90, 100, 86 wins.

As much as we don't like to hear it, as fans, the idea that you do "just enough to get in" actually seems to be correct.

2024: LAD 98 wins over NYY 94 wins
2023: TEX 90 wins over ARI 84 wins
2022: HOU 106 over PHI 87 wins
2021: ATL 88 wins over HOU 95 wins

2022 you had three 100 win teams eliminated before the LCS. 2023, two 100 win and one 99 win team eliminated before the NLCS. Back to 2021 there were two 100 win teams eliminated in the LDS and then the 106 win Dodgers eliminated in the LCS.

Rather than trying to create a 100+ win powerhouse team for a 1-2 year period, having a consistent 88-92 win team over a 6+ year stretch (or a 10-12 year stretch) seems to be an agreeable strategy.

The Cardinals don't seem that far off do they? Looking up and down the organization some of the building blocks are there. And don't scoff. There's good pitching in the system. There's several above average position players we can project around the diamond.

What is it we are missing?

What is it as fans we should be expecting that we aren't seeing?

For me, it's just the ongoing misuse of talent. Why we keep seeing Burleson out there every day I don't know.

It's more about the unclear strategy. Is this team hoping to contend? Or is the goal to develop a certain part of the roster as a core for the future. They haven't been able to put forth a contrite effort to contend in some time. This team fooled us for the Minnesota series. But let's be real, at no point has there been a serious signal that they want to contend. We've heard in years past that it's not about wins and losses. We've heard Oli has his job safe, there's no pressure on him to win. Was it last year they said that? Here we are punting another season without a clear strategy. It's ridiculous. It's like we've been in a transition year since about 2023.

As outlined above, there can be a minimum barrier of what a "contending team" looks like. Doing "just enough." This organization, on the other hand, hasn't even determinably aimed that high in quite some time.

So to see them send a clear message that they are going the other way would be refreshing. No, you don't have to tear it down. But I think we would like to see this roster cleared of pieces that won't be a factor on Bloom and Cerfolio's teams. I really think Contreras and Arenado should be gotten rid of for the benefit of all parties. Winn, Scott, Nootbaar, Donovan, Walker, Gorman, Saggese, and Herrera. These are the players that should be getting as much of an unobstructed chance as possible to mold as the future of this club, with Wetherholt and Davis on the way.

Get serious. Let's get to where we can define what the group of players is that can lead us towards a 6-10 year period of contending teams, and make a commitment to those players. Veterans should be off this roster. And by the end of the year you should be looking at Donovan, Nootbaar, and maybe others as serious extension candidates.

Very few players in this game are consistent year round. Unless it's Albert Pujols, pretty much every player has ups and downs. But what is happening to get Walker and Gorman to reach their potential. Stop pointing the finger at these players. It has been at least a decade since the organization has cashed in on a top pick or been able to develop a prospect into a mainstay core player. For the first week we thought Walker was ready to breakout. Now, we think Gorman is serious after a few big games. Again, these guys are going to have ups and downs but let's be real. We want to be convinced that these guys are getting what they need towards scratching that potential they have.

To build a team the Jocketty way is likely not feasible in this landscape. We just want to be convinced that there's a direction. That the organization knows where the target is. We want to be convinced that the pieces we have are being optimized and used correctly, with a visible organizational goal. We want to be convinced that players are performing up to their capabilities, without so many surrounding questions about coaching and development. We're not far off, but we have a right to expect more than this.

[imadangman]

It seems like 90 wins is a safe target. If you can sit down and look at run differential, projected WAR, whatever you need to look at and expect your roster to be worth about 90 wins it seems like that's all you need to expect. Some of the teams will underperform and win 86 games. Some will overperform and win 94. If you can consistently do that for a 6-10 year stretch you'll have yourself in position for some good playoff runs.

[Red Bird Classic]

From 2000-2006 we won 95, 93, 97, 85, 105, 100, 83 (WS) games. Any of those teams from 2000-06 were in position to potentially win a WS. Some of the teams arguably should have. The 83 win team was the one that won it.

Even after that. From 2007-2016 you had 78, 86, 91, 86, 90 (WS), 88, 97, 90, 100, 86 wins.

As much as we don't like to hear it, as fans, the idea that you do "just enough to get in" actually seems to be correct.

2024: LAD 98 wins over NYY 94 wins
2023: TEX 90 wins over ARI 84 wins
2022: HOU 106 over PHI 87 wins
2021: ATL 88 wins over HOU 95 wins

2022 you had three 100 win teams eliminated before the LCS. 2023, two 100 win and one 99 win team eliminated before the NLCS. Back to 2021 there were two 100 win teams eliminated in the LDS and then the 106 win Dodgers eliminated in the LCS.

Rather than trying to create a 100+ win powerhouse team for a 1-2 year period, having a consistent 88-92 win team over a 6+ year stretch (or a 10-12 year stretch) seems to be an agreeable strategy.

The Cardinals don't seem that far off do they? Looking up and down the organization some of the building blocks are there. And don't scoff. There's good pitching in the system. There's several above average position players we can project around the diamond.

What is it we are missing?

What is it as fans we should be expecting that we aren't seeing?

For me, it's just the ongoing misuse of talent. Why we keep seeing Burleson out there every day I don't know.

It's more about the unclear strategy. Is this team hoping to contend? Or is the goal to develop a certain part of the roster as a core for the future. They haven't been able to put forth a contrite effort to contend in some time. This team fooled us for the Minnesota series. But let's be real, at no point has there been a serious signal that they want to contend. We've heard in years past that it's not about wins and losses. We've heard Oli has his job safe, there's no pressure on him to win. Was it last year they said that? Here we are punting another season without a clear strategy. It's ridiculous. It's like we've been in a transition year since about 2023.

As outlined above, there can be a minimum barrier of what a "contending team" looks like. Doing "just enough." This organization, on the other hand, hasn't even determinably aimed that high in quite some time.

So to see them send a clear message that they are going the other way would be refreshing. No, you don't have to tear it down. But I think we would like to see this roster cleared of pieces that won't be a factor on Bloom and Cerfolio's teams. I really think Contreras and Arenado should be gotten rid of for the benefit of all parties. Winn, Scott, Nootbaar, Donovan, Walker, Gorman, Saggese, and Herrera. These are the players that should be getting as much of an unobstructed chance as possible to mold as the future of this club, with Wetherholt and Davis on the way.

Get serious. Let's get to where we can define what the group of players is that can lead us towards a 6-10 year period of contending teams, and make a commitment to those players. Veterans should be off this roster. And by the end of the year you should be looking at Donovan, Nootbaar, and maybe others as serious extension candidates.

Very few players in this game are consistent year round. Unless it's Albert Pujols, pretty much every player has ups and downs. But what is happening to get Walker and Gorman to reach their potential. Stop pointing the finger at these players. It has been at least a decade since the organization has cashed in on a top pick or been able to develop a prospect into a mainstay core player. For the first week we thought Walker was ready to breakout. Now, we think Gorman is serious after a few big games. Again, these guys are going to have ups and downs but let's be real. We want to be convinced that these guys are getting what they need towards scratching that potential they have.

To build a team the Jocketty way is likely not feasible in this landscape. We just want to be convinced that there's a direction. That the organization knows where the target is. We want to be convinced that the pieces we have are being optimized and used correctly, with a visible organizational goal. We want to be convinced that players are performing up to their capabilities, without so many surrounding questions about coaching and development. We're not far off, but we have a right to expect more than this.

It is not correct.

Any playoff team has a long-shot chance at a ring, so is just getting the key?

No.

Of course any team might win the WS. But we've been down this road many times, the stats gathered, the math done, and in the long run, the better teams win. That's a fact.

The Dodgers, for example, even if the Cardinals had a WC level, team, would have about twenty times the chance of winning a ring as the Cardinals. That means over a century, they'll win twenty rings to the Cardinals one.

Even the Pirates are likely to do as well. Is that the team you want to root for?

Aim high and there's less chance of embarrassing yourself. And if you do win, you'll have the satisfaction of having the best team and not just the hot (lucky) team.