9-14 record doesn't jive with run differential

[woofy25]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

I'm not an Oli supporter, but he squeezed out more wins last year than the run differential suggested. They should have been well below .500.

When it’s paint my numbers managing sure he can win when he actually has to manage hes doomed by dumb

The Cardinals were 29-22 in one run games last season, good for 2nd best winning percentage in baseball. Do you give any credit to Oli for that, or are there legit reasons as to how the Cardinals were able to do that despite the Manager?

[Wattage]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

While I find run differential to be a good INDICATOR of a team's win loss record, I think it is really tough to draw any conclusions around RD this early in the season. It's so easy for this stat to be skewed with one run wins and losses and lop sided wins and losses. I'll check back in on RD at the end of May.

While run differential can often correlate with a teams win loss record expected from such run differential- i find the obsession or intent to say a team is lucky ornunlucky behind it odd and there is no reason to look at it as a predictive tool andni think people read too much intk it

Once a game is no longer close, managers dont manage for the best possible run differentials. So a team having a really bad mopup reliever that inflates another teams run differential doesnt real mean that team is any more likely to win future games because they were able to inflate on mopup reliever. Or using your own mop up reliever because you are up many influences differential. Also pulling starters.

Where as if teams were managing like the best run differential would determine standings instead of indivodually winning each game- then they would manage a lot of those games much differently.

Also- current run differential only tells what happened. It doesnt tell at all what future run differential will be sonit can predict any correction on standings because of flukey run differential to win loss record because the run differential moving forward could be much different. Hitters could slump. Pitchers could fall apart.

Just seems like people somewhat cling to it as a denial when it tells a different story than what they want to hear with the team record but ignore it when it tells different story than they want to hear. Its all too circumstantial to be of value.

The two WS teams each year tend to have very high run differentials. Yes, you can find anomalies, but run differential is a clear indicator of how good a team is. The Cardinals outperformed their run differential last b/c their bullpen was exceptional.

Yes but the world series teams also have good win loss records. So why the need to label it in the terms of run differential instead of record.

There will always be a correlation to run diferential andnwin loss because in order to have a win you have to have positive run differential for a game and to lose you have to have negative for a game.

But focusing more on run differential than the actual win loss really is pointless.

Games are managed to maximize win loss and not to maximize run differential

[Ozziesfan41]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

I'm not an Oli supporter, but he squeezed out more wins last year than the run differential suggested. They should have been well below .500.

When it’s paint my numbers managing sure he can win when he actually has to manage hes doomed by dumb

The Cardinals were 29-22 in one run games last season, good for 2nd best winning percentage in baseball. Do you give any credit to Oli for that, or are there legit reasons as to how the Cardinals were able to do that despite the Manager?

Like I said there wasnt much managing involved. He had solid 7, 8, 9 relievers just plug in paint by numbers. Almost zero managing involved. So i do give him credit for not going outside that paint by numbers managing. Its just when he has to think and actually manage he becomes doomed by dumb. Hes had to actually do some thinking and managing early on this season the results show

[sp25]

You want a run differential that doesn't jibe/jive?

The Reds have a differential of +29 but their record is 11-12. How or why?

Take away their recent 24-2 victory over the Orioles as well as a 14-3 win over the Rangers earlier in the season, their record would be 9-12 with a differential of -4.

The devil is in the details, friends.

[woofy25]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

While I find run differential to be a good INDICATOR of a team's win loss record, I think it is really tough to draw any conclusions around RD this early in the season. It's so easy for this stat to be skewed with one run wins and losses and lop sided wins and losses. I'll check back in on RD at the end of May.

While run differential can often correlate with a teams win loss record expected from such run differential- i find the obsession or intent to say a team is lucky ornunlucky behind it odd and there is no reason to look at it as a predictive tool andni think people read too much intk it

Once a game is no longer close, managers dont manage for the best possible run differentials. So a team having a really bad mopup reliever that inflates another teams run differential doesnt real mean that team is any more likely to win future games because they were able to inflate on mopup reliever. Or using your own mop up reliever because you are up many influences differential. Also pulling starters.

Where as if teams were managing like the best run differential would determine standings instead of indivodually winning each game- then they would manage a lot of those games much differently.

Also- current run differential only tells what happened. It doesnt tell at all what future run differential will be sonit can predict any correction on standings because of flukey run differential to win loss record because the run differential moving forward could be much different. Hitters could slump. Pitchers could fall apart.

Just seems like people somewhat cling to it as a denial when it tells a different story than what they want to hear with the team record but ignore it when it tells different story than they want to hear. Its all too circumstantial to be of value.

The two WS teams each year tend to have very high run differentials. Yes, you can find anomalies, but run differential is a clear indicator of how good a team is. The Cardinals outperformed their run differential last b/c their bullpen was exceptional.

Yes but the world series teams also have good win loss records. So why the need to label it in the terms of run differential instead of record.

There will always be a correlation to run diferential andnwin loss because in order to have a win you have to have positive run differential for a game and to lose you have to have negative for a game.

But focusing more on run differential than the actual win loss really is pointless.

Games are managed to maximize win loss and not to maximize run differential

Who is saying there should be a stronger focus on run differential than W/L records?
I do think run differential is an important stat to look at for a franchise when it comes to the offseason. Meaning, in a normal offseason, the Cardinals would assess how far away they are from where they want to be, and presumably make moves to get better. If they look at the 83 wins from 2024 and really felt they only needed to improve by six wins to get into the playoffs, I would say that is incredibly shortsighted. Their run differential suggests they are more like a 75 win team, and if the season were to get replayed, they'd be much closer to 75 than 83. Therefore, they should strive to improve the team by at least 14 wins, if they wanted to field a playoff team in 2025.

Ultimately, statistics are an indicator of the W/L record, and they're used in discussion every day. Analyzing statistics is a major avenue in determining where and how a team can get better. Just looking at a W/L record does nothing to inform anyone about how to improve a roster.

[woofy25]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

I'm not an Oli supporter, but he squeezed out more wins last year than the run differential suggested. They should have been well below .500.

When it’s paint my numbers managing sure he can win when he actually has to manage hes doomed by dumb

The Cardinals were 29-22 in one run games last season, good for 2nd best winning percentage in baseball. Do you give any credit to Oli for that, or are there legit reasons as to how the Cardinals were able to do that despite the Manager?

Like I said there wasnt much managing involved. He had solid 7, 8, 9 relievers just plug in paint by numbers. Almost zero managing involved. So i do give him credit for not going outside that paint by numbers managing. Its just when he has to think and actually manage he becomes doomed by dumb. Hes had to actually do some thinking and managing early on this season the results show

Fair enough, I appreciate that answer. Oli certainly used those three guys a ton last season. I thought they were going fall apart by mid-August.

[BrummerStealsHome]

Neither did our 83-79 record last season.

And I think I wore out a keyboard typing responses as to why run differential is a worthless stat. Yep, still is.