9-14 record doesn't jive with run differential

[ramfandan]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

[icon]

The word is jibe.

You talking jive?

[cardstatman]

[Ozziesfan41]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

[BrockFloodMaris]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

While I find run differential to be a good INDICATOR of a team's win loss record, I think it is really tough to draw any conclusions around RD this early in the season. It's so easy for this stat to be skewed with one run wins and losses and lop sided wins and losses. I'll check back in on RD at the end of May.

[Wattage]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

While I find run differential to be a good INDICATOR of a team's win loss record, I think it is really tough to draw any conclusions around RD this early in the season. It's so easy for this stat to be skewed with one run wins and losses and lop sided wins and losses. I'll check back in on RD at the end of May.

While run differential can often correlate with a teams win loss record expected from such run differential- i find the obsession or intent to say a team is lucky ornunlucky behind it odd and there is no reason to look at it as a predictive tool andni think people read too much intk it

Once a game is no longer close, managers dont manage for the best possible run differentials. So a team having a really bad mopup reliever that inflates another teams run differential doesnt real mean that team is any more likely to win future games because they were able to inflate on mopup reliever. Or using your own mop up reliever because you are up many influences differential. Also pulling starters.

Where as if teams were managing like the best run differential would determine standings instead of indivodually winning each game- then they would manage a lot of those games much differently.

Also- current run differential only tells what happened. It doesnt tell at all what future run differential will be sonit can predict any correction on standings because of flukey run differential to win loss record because the run differential moving forward could be much different. Hitters could slump. Pitchers could fall apart.

Just seems like people somewhat cling to it as a denial when it tells a different story than what they want to hear with the team record but ignore it when it tells different story than they want to hear. Its all too circumstantial to be of value.

[imadangman]

The word is jibe.

You talking jive?

Don't give me that jibe

[alw80]

Neither did our 83-79 record last season.

[The Nard]

Too early to make statistical inferences. In general, you need at least 30 valid observations in your sample before any patterns can be inferred.

So far to date, the outlier runs have a strong influence in your data.

[rockondlouie]

Shows what happens when you have a bad Manager................hopefully fired by Memorial Day.

[Hoosier59]

Oli’s poor lineup construction, his penchant for pulling his starters too soon, and running out 4 or 5 relievers every game has to contribute to the loss column! Helsley hasn’t pitched in days, what’s he saving him for? All these close games and there hasn’t been one good spot to use your best reliever? Please! Oli sits guys that would give the team a better chance to win, just because he plays his favorites, hoping that they will finally come through. There will be a lot of backlash from fans if Saggese is sent down!

[sikeston bulldog2]

It’s just your jive talking. Stands in the way. Jive talking. Every day.
Jive talkin. Tellin me lies. Jive talking. Bring tears to my eyes.

Bee Gees.

[jcgmoi]

Look, I understand the Cardinals would be undefeated if someone other than Marmol was manager, but he's the same guy with the same tendencies who last year had a team that exceeded their run diff. Did you hate him less then?

Another thing, for those thinking the club's 1-10 road record is indicative of their true abilities and not some SSS aberration, I'm curious how you fit their 8-4 road record in your world view. Do you really think that means they're a 108-win team at heart?

[woofy25]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

I'm not an Oli supporter, but he squeezed out more wins last year than the run differential suggested. They should have been well below .500.

[woofy25]

According to MLB standings, the Cards have scored 109 Runs and allowed 110 for a -1 in their 23 games. The expected W-L record for -1 is 11-12 . No surprise that Cardinals are 2 under the expected W-L as Cards have played in five 1-run games thus far and have won zero of them ..0-5

Thought I would check out how other teams with a -1 run differential compare. While no team had -1, there were several very close
For example,
Guardianswere -2 92 runs vs. 94 They are 13-9 record
Houston -1 is 11-10
Toronto is -3 and they are 12-10
What really caught my eye was the Phillies .. scored 107 runs /allowed 106 a +1 and they are 13-10 record

The bullpen has not supported the good starting pitching this year.
Offense has been a bright spot.
The 109 runs scored is 7th best in MLB.
Hits at 213 rank 2nd most .. Only Cubs have more hits than Cards.
Doubles 46 .. rank 3rd
HR's not as good though .. 22 ranks 18th (Herrera was major blow !)

Despite various individuals that seem to be struggling overall the Batting Avg has been excellent .. .264 team avg Ranks 2nd best
Even OPS at .736 ranks 6th

It's the 4.38 ERA 24th in MLB that hurts and that isn't coming from our starters as we all know.

It's been frustrating to see a young offense be productive (Cards team 3rd youngest in MLB ) but a bullpen letting the games get away .

While I find run differential to be a good INDICATOR of a team's win loss record, I think it is really tough to draw any conclusions around RD this early in the season. It's so easy for this stat to be skewed with one run wins and losses and lop sided wins and losses. I'll check back in on RD at the end of May.

While run differential can often correlate with a teams win loss record expected from such run differential- i find the obsession or intent to say a team is lucky ornunlucky behind it odd and there is no reason to look at it as a predictive tool andni think people read too much intk it

Once a game is no longer close, managers dont manage for the best possible run differentials. So a team having a really bad mopup reliever that inflates another teams run differential doesnt real mean that team is any more likely to win future games because they were able to inflate on mopup reliever. Or using your own mop up reliever because you are up many influences differential. Also pulling starters.

Where as if teams were managing like the best run differential would determine standings instead of indivodually winning each game- then they would manage a lot of those games much differently.

Also- current run differential only tells what happened. It doesnt tell at all what future run differential will be sonit can predict any correction on standings because of flukey run differential to win loss record because the run differential moving forward could be much different. Hitters could slump. Pitchers could fall apart.

Just seems like people somewhat cling to it as a denial when it tells a different story than what they want to hear with the team record but ignore it when it tells different story than they want to hear. Its all too circumstantial to be of value.

The two WS teams each year tend to have very high run differentials. Yes, you can find anomalies, but run differential is a clear indicator of how good a team is. The Cardinals outperformed their run differential last b/c their bullpen was exceptional.

[Ozziesfan41]

An idiot manager can definitely squeeze out a few more losses in the run differential

I'm not an Oli supporter, but he squeezed out more wins last year than the run differential suggested. They should have been well below .500.

When it’s paint my numbers managing sure he can win when he actually has to manage hes doomed by dumb