Perunovich pick

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seattleblue
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by seattleblue »

skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:31 pm
seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:00 pm There are sooo many players with the profile and such a tiny percentage of them hit. They drafted him because at the time they had a highly questionable philosophy in the moment that you win the Cup with little squirt PPQBs instead of the obvious large excellent skating defenders. They seem to have remembered how the Cup is won with the most recent defensive drafting focus, so they at least learned from this error in philosophy.

If we were in a time where little Debrincats were the rage right now, I would be worried they'd want to draft Cam Schmidt out of Vancouver this year. He is 5'7" I am perfectly content to miss out on the little squirts and let someone else take them. I would also be nervous about Cullen Potter or Ben Kindel in the first this year for similar concerns but I like more out of both their games than Schmidt.

All of that said I only have an issue with the type of player, not that they used this specific 45th overall pick on Scott Perunovich. If he'd been a first rounder I'd criticize but it was a flier on an iffy idea in the first place. Meh. I cannot fathom wishing for him back with the Blues though, that is mind boggling.
lol no they took him where no "large excellent skating defenders" are available unless they have other huge warts.

and what is mind boggling is not wanting a dominant AHL d man in the system feeding pucks to our forward prospects.
where did Fischer & Ralph get picked?
of course there are questions about second round picks. it's the type of questions.
I'm guessing you can see that different players have different types of question marks
as far as having him back with the Blues I am against. I have no opinion on where he plays in the AHL but I do not want him under Blues contract.

ps just for clarity, I am saying large defenders who are also excellent skaters. not "large, excellent (overall) defenders"
a smell of green grass
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by a smell of green grass »

skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Frank Barone
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by Frank Barone »

blackinkbiz wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:41 pm Part of his problem was his refusal to shoot the puck more. He's got a good shot. But he's not big enough to be a solid Dman and not fast enough to be a slippery one. Those two season-ending surgeries really messed up his development.
The main difference between Peru and Lane Hutson or Quinn Hughes is footspeed. Hutson is a one man fast break, a dynamo. He outskates everyone on the ice. Peru has puck skills, but he doesn't skate like those guys. Also I don't believe that his injuries slowed his skating speed that much as most of his injuries were upper body.
seattleblue
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by seattleblue »

a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:54 pm
skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Look I loathed the decision he made on Pietrangelo but I never once heard that Perunovich was meant to take his place. Army crashed the plane into the side of the mountain once, killing everyone on board. AND ALSO he deserves credit for fighting back. I have heard him say he knows what his biggest mistake was, And man it just kills me that we could gain and lose Stevens, gain and lose Pronger, gain and then decide to lose Petro. I hate not learning after repeat painful lessons. But Armstrong had a straight out GM of the year type year this year. That is fighting back. He also did what he had to do in 2023 regarding getting 1sts and other picks in one of the better drafts since that 2003 draft. So we have all waited impatiently to get the actual RE going and Armstrong did do it.

I know you know there are exceptions and outliers, that is built into the entire tapestry of sports, so I don't understand why you'd want a blanket statement of only top 15 picks matter or only top 5 picks matter. Remember you threw out six players the other day and five of them we got with the same means we have and are using right now. Your rule would mean you'd have to ignore Robert Thomas making a standard deviation leap this year, because he went 20th. I wouldn't pin yourself down with this one because it's too easy to disprove. Just my advice.
a smell of green grass
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by a smell of green grass »

seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:20 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:54 pm
skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Look I loathed the decision he made on Pietrangelo but I never once heard that Perunovich was meant to take his place. Army crashed the plane into the side of the mountain once, killing everyone on board. AND ALSO he deserves credit for fighting back. I have heard him say he knows what his biggest mistake was, And man it just kills me that we could gain and lose Stevens, gain and lose Pronger, gain and then decide to lose Petro. I hate not learning after repeat painful lessons. But Armstrong had a straight out GM of the year type year this year. That is fighting back. He also did what he had to do in 2023 regarding getting 1sts and other picks in one of the better drafts since that 2003 draft. So we have all waited impatiently to get the actual RE going and Armstrong did do it.

I know you know there are exceptions and outliers, that is built into the entire tapestry of sports, so I don't understand why you'd want a blanket statement of only top 15 picks matter or only top 5 picks matter. Remember you threw out six players the other day and five of them we got with the same means we have and are using right now. Your rule would mean you'd have to ignore Robert Thomas making a standard deviation leap this year, because he went 20th. I wouldn't pin yourself down with this one because it's too easy to disprove. Just my advice.
I'm not saying that great players can't be found after 15. I'm saying that NHL history tells us that picks beyond that will likely bust. I researched it a while back, and if you look at all NHL rosters that is the story.
seattleblue
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by seattleblue »

a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:26 pm
seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:20 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:54 pm
skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Look I loathed the decision he made on Pietrangelo but I never once heard that Perunovich was meant to take his place. Army crashed the plane into the side of the mountain once, killing everyone on board. AND ALSO he deserves credit for fighting back. I have heard him say he knows what his biggest mistake was, And man it just kills me that we could gain and lose Stevens, gain and lose Pronger, gain and then decide to lose Petro. I hate not learning after repeat painful lessons. But Armstrong had a straight out GM of the year type year this year. That is fighting back. He also did what he had to do in 2023 regarding getting 1sts and other picks in one of the better drafts since that 2003 draft. So we have all waited impatiently to get the actual RE going and Armstrong did do it.

I know you know there are exceptions and outliers, that is built into the entire tapestry of sports, so I don't understand why you'd want a blanket statement of only top 15 picks matter or only top 5 picks matter. Remember you threw out six players the other day and five of them we got with the same means we have and are using right now. Your rule would mean you'd have to ignore Robert Thomas making a standard deviation leap this year, because he went 20th. I wouldn't pin yourself down with this one because it's too easy to disprove. Just my advice.
I'm not saying that great players can't be found after 15. I'm saying that NHL history tells us that picks beyond that will likely bust. I researched it a while back, and if you look at all NHL rosters that is the story.
It's absolutely an asymptote, I just don't think it's a really good criticism on balance, because I would rather be picking in the 20s with a LOT of pieces already on the team than needing significantly more impact players while picking let's say 6th-10th.
Backesdraft
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by Backesdraft »

a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:26 pm
seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:20 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:54 pm
skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Look I loathed the decision he made on Pietrangelo but I never once heard that Perunovich was meant to take his place. Army crashed the plane into the side of the mountain once, killing everyone on board. AND ALSO he deserves credit for fighting back. I have heard him say he knows what his biggest mistake was, And man it just kills me that we could gain and lose Stevens, gain and lose Pronger, gain and then decide to lose Petro. I hate not learning after repeat painful lessons. But Armstrong had a straight out GM of the year type year this year. That is fighting back. He also did what he had to do in 2023 regarding getting 1sts and other picks in one of the better drafts since that 2003 draft. So we have all waited impatiently to get the actual RE going and Armstrong did do it.

I know you know there are exceptions and outliers, that is built into the entire tapestry of sports, so I don't understand why you'd want a blanket statement of only top 15 picks matter or only top 5 picks matter. Remember you threw out six players the other day and five of them we got with the same means we have and are using right now. Your rule would mean you'd have to ignore Robert Thomas making a standard deviation leap this year, because he went 20th. I wouldn't pin yourself down with this one because it's too easy to disprove. Just my advice.
I'm not saying that great players can't be found after 15. I'm saying that NHL history tells us that picks beyond that will likely bust. I researched it a while back, and if you look at all NHL rosters that is the story.
Hey Green Grass, I thought you said you were leaving the board. What’re ya doing back so soon?
theograce
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by theograce »

seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:43 am The dream of him reaching his full potential and thus having to both one day overpay and shelter this type of Krug-ish player on the ice is dead it looks like.
I don’t even like Q. Hughes who will be a HOFer. Small Dmen are at such a disadvantage during intensity.
a smell of green grass
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by a smell of green grass »

NHL history:

1st Round Picks - about 63% make it to the NHL.

2nd Round Picks - less than 25% make it to the NHL

3rd Round Picks - about 12% make it.

Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players.

I remember seeing earlier that picks after 15 are essentially Round 2 picks. There is no difference in caliber of player.
seattleblue
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by seattleblue »

theograce wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:38 pm
seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:43 am The dream of him reaching his full potential and thus having to both one day overpay and shelter this type of Krug-ish player on the ice is dead it looks like.
I don’t even like Q. Hughes who will be a HOFer. Small Dmen are at such a disadvantage during intensity.
For some reason I was looking back last night on comments made about Dvorsky not long before his draft and I was listening to an analysis of Will Smith vs. Dvorsky and the scout on Dvorsky has a bias toward exactly what you're talking about ... you aren't just picturing the player in the regular season, you are picturing the player in the Stanley Cup semifinals and Final and what real minutes would look like for them there. The scout was saying he'd take Dvorsky over Smith all day long because while Smith could put up the eye popping offensive numbers his defensive game and ethic will never come near Dvorsky's and Dvo was built to play in those final rounds as a top two center. I liked hearing that.
DawgDad
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by DawgDad »

a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:43 pm NHL history:

1st Round Picks - about 63% make it to the NHL.

2nd Round Picks - less than 25% make it to the NHL

3rd Round Picks - about 12% make it.

Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players.

I remember seeing earlier that picks after 15 are essentially Round 2 picks. There is no difference in caliber of player.
Apparently you did not do well in math.
Backesdraft
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by Backesdraft »

a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:43 pm NHL history:

1st Round Picks - about 63% make it to the NHL.

2nd Round Picks - less than 25% make it to the NHL

3rd Round Picks - about 12% make it.

Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players.

I remember seeing earlier that picks after 15 are essentially Round 2 picks. There is no difference in caliber of player.
Hey Green Grass, ya never answered my question. I thought you said you were leaving the board. What’re ya doing back so soon?
stlblues1979
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by stlblues1979 »

DawgDad wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:52 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:43 pm NHL history:

1st Round Picks - about 63% make it to the NHL.

2nd Round Picks - less than 25% make it to the NHL

3rd Round Picks - about 12% make it.

Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players.

I remember seeing earlier that picks after 15 are essentially Round 2 picks. There is no difference in caliber of player.
Apparently you did not do well in math.
He excelled in fashion design. Remember it's all about jersey sales!
dhsux
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by dhsux »

I wish him the best one of his biggest supporters but man ended up just waiting and waiting on his skill level to kick in and be a really good player in spite of his lack in size.

To this day I still can't explain to myself why he didn't succeed beyond where he is, even considering the injuries.
sdaltons
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by sdaltons »

seattleblue wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:20 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 12:54 pm
skilles wrote: 19 Apr 2025 11:57 am Peru is 40th in NHL points in his draft class and he is a dman, The realization here should be more about reflecting on expectations not that is a blown pick.

I know he has to go make his rounds and see if he can make it work but otherwise I wish we still had him in the system. There was never any rational reason to move him outside doing him a favor.
The expectations should have been level-set 8+ years ago. After 8 years of being told that he solves the Pietrangelo hole, who can blame the fans for thinking it was so--IN TIME AND WITH A FEW MORE PRACTICE REPS?

Blame the guy that set the expectations 8 years ago. That would be Douglas P Army. P is for "creating the Pietrangelo Hole".

ASOGG: Any prospect picked after 15 should not be counted on for anything other than lots of internet speculation.
Look I loathed the decision he made on Pietrangelo but I never once heard that Perunovich was meant to take his place. Army crashed the plane into the side of the mountain once, killing everyone on board. AND ALSO he deserves credit for fighting back. I have heard him say he knows what his biggest mistake was, And man it just kills me that we could gain and lose Stevens, gain and lose Pronger, gain and then decide to lose Petro. I hate not learning after repeat painful lessons. But Armstrong had a straight out GM of the year type year this year. That is fighting back. He also did what he had to do in 2023 regarding getting 1sts and other picks in one of the better drafts since that 2003 draft. So we have all waited impatiently to get the actual RE going and Armstrong did do it.

I know you know there are exceptions and outliers, that is built into the entire tapestry of sports, so I don't understand why you'd want a blanket statement of only top 15 picks matter or only top 5 picks matter. Remember you threw out six players the other day and five of them we got with the same means we have and are using right now. Your rule would mean you'd have to ignore Robert Thomas making a standard deviation leap this year, because he went 20th. I wouldn't pin yourself down with this one because it's too easy to disprove. Just my advice.
Yep not one person, Army included, ever claimed Peru was going to "fill the Petro hole." That's a blatant lie.
a smell of green grass
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Re: Perunovich pick

Post by a smell of green grass »

Backesdraft wrote: 19 Apr 2025 14:11 pm
a smell of green grass wrote: 19 Apr 2025 13:43 pm NHL history:

1st Round Picks - about 63% make it to the NHL.

2nd Round Picks - less than 25% make it to the NHL

3rd Round Picks - about 12% make it.

Former NHL general manager Doug MacLean said his math over the last decade showed that only 15% of second round picks ever become impact players.

I remember seeing earlier that picks after 15 are essentially Round 2 picks. There is no difference in caliber of player.
Hey Green Grass, ya never answered my question. I thought you said you were leaving the board. What’re ya doing back so soon?
Many people wanted to rub it in when the Blues do well in the playoffs. I'm not one to run from a fight. So here I am.

So what's going to happen in the playoffs, Backesdraft? I say they win 1 but no chance for winning the series. What you say?
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