Execute The Plan

[Talkin' Baseball]

This thread makes the assumption that the goal of a reset that the front office talked about at the post season press conference is still the goal. I thought much could be accomplished with what they were describing and so I liked the idea. I like the idea because I think the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to do this. They aren’t “bad”, but as described often, they are stuck in the middle. They actually have some veteran players that teams will want, as well as some redundancies among young players at some positions. So, there is something to work with- if they just will. They have already begun hedging this position, and more than it being a case of them changing their mind, I actually think it is because they are scared to death to do it. The front office has been very poor at talent evaluation and though they would never admit it, I think they realize this. I think Mozeliak also realizes that the moves he makes this summer are his last ones and he will leave the final impression of his work. He doesn’t want to mess it up and so he lays out an alternate goal of trying to win this year that he can pivot to if he can’t accomplish a reset. Likewise, if they don’t win, he can say, “This year was never about the record, it was a reset”. Your first goal was a good one- execute the plan. Be bold- execute the plan.
Having said that, I expect half measures. He will perform a “middling” reset. Here is what I think a bolder reset of the roster might look like. Be the most active team at the trade deadline regardless of the record. Aim for bigger targets than we have in the past. Package some players where you can and aim to get one, better player in return. Don’t trade the best trade chips for a couple of guys in the other teams’ teens and twenties on their prospect list. Get someone from their top 5 prospect list. Move early if you can. Tell teams that you intend to trade Player X within 10 days after the All-Star break. Get to teams before the market narrows. With 3-4 days left before the deadline circle back to Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and see if their position on staying has changed. It’s interesting that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles in the AL East all need the same thing from us. That could be fun.
For the “It’s way too early crowd”, it is early, but it’s never too early to be evaluating, and never to early to be developing plans. Some suggestions:
#1-Erick Fedde and Ryan Helsley to the Baltimore Orioles for Coby Mayo. Fedde has a Baseball Trade Value (BTV) of 14.2, Helsley of 13, and Mayo of 27.2. Coby Mayo is 23 years old. He is the #13 prospect in the major leagues according to MLB. He is Baltimore’s #2 prospect. Mayo plays primarily 3B, but also can play 1B. He is 6’4” and goes 230. He has extreme power and a very strong arm. He is currently at AAA. The MLB.com scouting report lists Austin Riley as a comp. Why would Baltimore trade him? They tanked for a long time for the chance to compete and they are 2 years into their window. They have started poorly and their pitching is a mess. Corbin Burnes left and they are dealing with injuries. Frankly, if they don’t make the playoffs this year- someone is getting fired. POBO, GM, Manager, or all of the above. They also have no place to play him. Their infield consists of Westburg at 3B, Henderson at SS, Holliday at 2B and Mountcastle at 1B. Also, the only prospect Baltimore has ahead of Mayo also plays 1B. Trading for Fedde and Helsley would not only shore up their pitching, it would prevent the Yankees, or Red Sox from getting them. This trade would have the best chance of being completed well before the deadline. The Orioles have started poorly and they may be willing to make moves with short-term benefits to secure their jobs. An infield of Contreras (or, whoever) at 1b, Wetherholt at 2B, Winn at SS, and Mayo at 3B would be one to go into battle with.

#2-Nolan Arenado and $12M to the Dodgers for Jackson Farris. Nolan’s value is improving as the deadline approaches due to his performance, 2/3 of his contract for the year being paid by the deadline, and stronger need from the receiving team. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Arenado’s remaining contract goes like this; 2025 he makes 32M, the Rockies pay 5M, and 6M is deferred (the Cardinal’s do deferrals too). Under these terms he is being paid 21M this season, and by the deadline there will be approximately 7M remaining. In 2026 he is slated to make 27M with the Rockies paying 5M, and 6M being deferred. So, his salary is effectively 16M. In 2027 Arenado will make 15M with no other monies being paid. The Cardinals should pay the deferrals ($12M) and try not to include any other money. The Dodgers get him for 7M this year, 16M next year, and 15M the following year. Who the heck is Jackson Farris? He is a 21 year-old lefthander who is in AA presently. He is MLB’s #67 overall prospect and the Dodgers’ #4 prospect. He is their top pitching prospect and was their minor league pitcher of the year. He has a mid-90’s fastball. Jackson stands 6’4” and is listed at 195 pounds. MLB.com lists Blake Snell as having a similar type of profile, but states that Farris is farther along in his development than Snell was at this age. Why would the Dodgers do this? (This is where the "it is early" caveats come in) They have a much tougher dog fight in their division than I think anyone anticipated. That isn’t going away. The Dodgers window for championships is wide open now. They have spent a ton of money to get there. They don’t have many weaknesses, but 3B presently is awful for them. They weren’t expecting Max Muncy to fall of a cliff offensively. At this writing he has 0 home runs, a .193 batting average, a .572 OPS, and a 69 OPS+. Yikes! He has never been a good defensive 3B and Betts at SS is also below average defensively. Nolan Arenado is the very best available fix for their problem- and that is how the Dodgers roll. Jackson Farris, while valuable, is 12th, or 13th in line for a shot at the rotation (no exaggeration). The Dodgers won’t bat an eye at letting that go if it gets them where they want to be this year.

#3-Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jimmy Crooks, and Gordon Graceffo to the Miami Marlins for Eury Perez. Trade Values are Gorman 16.8, Burleson 11.6, Crooks 12.2 and Graceffo 1.4 for a total of 42. Perez has a BTV of 43.7. Perez is a 6’8” 220 pound righthander. He is 22 years old and has 19 big league starts. He is coming off TJ surgery and is scheduled to be pitching again after the All-Star break. He has true #1 stuff. In 2023 he put up 2.7 WAR in 19 starts. Perez won’t be a free agent until 2030. Why would the Marlins consider this? They might not (aim for bigger targets, remember?). He has a lot of team control left and a big upside. However, there is a risk to them if they keep him, and to us if they trade him, that he won’t be the same pitcher. In the NL East they may be in last place for years to come if they don’t take drastic action. They could trade Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara and really overhaul their whole position player outlook, and the Marlins would still have several pretty good pitchers left, though not on the level of these two. They may need quantity more badly than they need quality. This trade would give them three players that would probably start for them. We need the quality more badly than the quantity. He would be so important to us that I would be willing to overpay if they would make him available. This is a risk worth taking. This is a difference maker.

Obviously it doesn’t have to be exactly this, but this is an example of the types of trades they should be looking at. Reduce roster clutter. Get some players with upside. There are going to be so many teams in the playoff hunt- it should be a sellers’ market. The Cardinals should have something for everyone. Will they have the courage to capitalize on it even it they kind of, sort of, think they might have a chance at a wildcard spot too? I hope they will. It’s a unique opportunity in that they have the right kind of players to offer, the right teams in the market, and a fanbase that will largely give them the “runway” to carry this out.

[Talkin' Baseball]

The Cardinals could rebound quickly, not just in the dugout, but the brand and in the stands, if they can stack up good decisions. Their new hitting coach makes the product on the field more exciting. If they can add some compelling pieces at the deadline that will help. Getting the #5 player in the draft this year will help. A new voice in the front office will help. They may even get a different manager before next season- not saying they should or shouldn't- but Pujols or Molina in the dugout would definitely generate interest for the team.

[Banner29]

The Cardinals could rebound quickly, not just in the dugout, but the brand and in the stands, if they can stack up good decisions. Their new hitting coach makes the product on the field more exciting. If they can add some compelling pieces at the deadline that will help. Getting the #5 player in the draft this year will help. A new voice in the front office will help. They may even get a different manager before next season- not saying they should or shouldn't- but Pujols or Molina in the dugout would definitely generate interest for the team.

I don’t care if a new manager generates interest. I only care about if they are qualified and can still make decisions by themselves even if the iPad battery dies.

That may or may not be Albert or Yadi, I don’t know. Personally I hope it is. My childhood(teens really) memories would love to see them back in the dugout. But you’re already starting your managerial search on an awful path if your first thought is who is the most interesting.

[Talkin' Baseball]

It's not my search. Their names are frequently mentioned as potential Cardinal managers. I think either would be a good MLB manager anywhere, as would Skip Schumacher.

[Detroit Louie]

Some good trade suggestions, but it does take two to make them. I doubt those teams would give up such highly prized prospects. But a good GM might be able to make some of those trades. Unfortunately, that is not STL right now.

[ICCFIM2]

Interesting trade ideas, but if you trade Arenado, don't you want to keep Gorman to see what his potential is at 3B? Also, I would want more than singular arms back in those trades. I want at least another prospect. The Cards pitching depth is in utter shambles at the moment. This was discussed on Goold's chat this week. Outside of McGreevy, they have zero SPs close to the MLs with the injuries to Mathews, Hence and Thompson. Their minor league relief debt is all here except for Granillo. It is shallow. So they also need a trade or so to get close to ML ready relief talent.

I am pretty excited about the talent and the pipeline. Wetherholdt is hitting. Chase Davis is hitting in AA. Nootbar, Scott II, Donovan, Herrera, Pages and Wynn all seem to be good players. They need to find out about Gorman, Walker and Saggesse, which gets to your point about clearing roster space as part of the reset. Probably your idea is on point and they can just go get 2-3 Phil Maton's this off season in free agency and be a pretty good team next year. But, if they trade Gorman, I assume you are relying on Saggesse/Wetherhold at 3B?

[hugeCardfan]

This thread makes the assumption that the goal of a reset that the front office talked about at the post season press conference is still the goal. I thought much could be accomplished with what they were describing and so I liked the idea. I like the idea because I think the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to do this. They aren’t “bad”, but as described often, they are stuck in the middle. They actually have some veteran players that teams will want, as well as some redundancies among young players at some positions. So, there is something to work with- if they just will. They have already begun hedging this position, and more than it being a case of them changing their mind, I actually think it is because they are scared to death to do it. The front office has been very poor at talent evaluation and though they would never admit it, I think they realize this. I think Mozeliak also realizes that the moves he makes this summer are his last ones and he will leave the final impression of his work. He doesn’t want to mess it up and so he lays out an alternate goal of trying to win this year that he can pivot to if he can’t accomplish a reset. Likewise, if they don’t win, he can say, “This year was never about the record, it was a reset”. Your first goal was a good one- execute the plan. Be bold- execute the plan.
Having said that, I expect half measures. He will perform a “middling” reset. Here is what I think a bolder reset of the roster might look like. Be the most active team at the trade deadline regardless of the record. Aim for bigger targets than we have in the past. Package some players where you can and aim to get one, better player in return. Don’t trade the best trade chips for a couple of guys in the other teams’ teens and twenties on their prospect list. Get someone from their top 5 prospect list. Move early if you can. Tell teams that you intend to trade Player X within 10 days after the All-Star break. Get to teams before the market narrows. With 3-4 days left before the deadline circle back to Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and see if their position on staying has changed. It’s interesting that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles in the AL East all need the same thing from us. That could be fun.
For the “It’s way too early crowd”, it is early, but it’s never too early to be evaluating, and never to early to be developing plans. Some suggestions:
#1-Erick Fedde and Ryan Helsley to the Baltimore Orioles for Coby Mayo. Fedde has a Baseball Trade Value (BTV) of 14.2, Helsley of 13, and Mayo of 27.2. Coby Mayo is 23 years old. He is the #13 prospect in the major leagues according to MLB. He is Baltimore’s #2 prospect. Mayo plays primarily 3B, but also can play 1B. He is 6’4” and goes 230. He has extreme power and a very strong arm. He is currently at AAA. The MLB.com scouting report lists Austin Riley as a comp. Why would Baltimore trade him? They tanked for a long time for the chance to compete and they are 2 years into their window. They have started poorly and their pitching is a mess. Corbin Burnes left and they are dealing with injuries. Frankly, if they don’t make the playoffs this year- someone is getting fired. POBO, GM, Manager, or all of the above. They also have no place to play him. Their infield consists of Westburg at 3B, Henderson at SS, Holliday at 2B and Mountcastle at 1B. Also, the only prospect Baltimore has ahead of Mayo also plays 1B. Trading for Fedde and Helsley would not only shore up their pitching, it would prevent the Yankees, or Red Sox from getting them. This trade would have the best chance of being completed well before the deadline. The Orioles have started poorly and they may be willing to make moves with short-term benefits to secure their jobs. An infield of Contreras (or, whoever) at 1b, Wetherholt at 2B, Winn at SS, and Mayo at 3B would be one to go into battle with.

#2-Nolan Arenado and $12M to the Dodgers for Jackson Farris. Nolan’s value is improving as the deadline approaches due to his performance, 2/3 of his contract for the year being paid by the deadline, and stronger need from the receiving team. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Arenado’s remaining contract goes like this; 2025 he makes 32M, the Rockies pay 5M, and 6M is deferred (the Cardinal’s do deferrals too). Under these terms he is being paid 21M this season, and by the deadline there will be approximately 7M remaining. In 2026 he is slated to make 27M with the Rockies paying 5M, and 6M being deferred. So, his salary is effectively 16M. In 2027 Arenado will make 15M with no other monies being paid. The Cardinals should pay the deferrals ($12M) and try not to include any other money. The Dodgers get him for 7M this year, 16M next year, and 15M the following year. Who the heck is Jackson Farris? He is a 21 year-old lefthander who is in AA presently. He is MLB’s #67 overall prospect and the Dodgers’ #4 prospect. He is their top pitching prospect and was their minor league pitcher of the year. He has a mid-90’s fastball. Jackson stands 6’4” and is listed at 195 pounds. MLB.com lists Blake Snell as having a similar type of profile, but states that Farris is farther along in his development than Snell was at this age. Why would the Dodgers do this? (This is where the "it is early" caveats come in) They have a much tougher dog fight in their division than I think anyone anticipated. That isn’t going away. The Dodgers window for championships is wide open now. They have spent a ton of money to get there. They don’t have many weaknesses, but 3B presently is awful for them. They weren’t expecting Max Muncy to fall of a cliff offensively. At this writing he has 0 home runs, a .193 batting average, a .572 OPS, and a 69 OPS+. Yikes! He has never been a good defensive 3B and Betts at SS is also below average defensively. Nolan Arenado is the very best available fix for their problem- and that is how the Dodgers roll. Jackson Farris, while valuable, is 12th, or 13th in line for a shot at the rotation (no exaggeration). The Dodgers won’t bat an eye at letting that go if it gets them where they want to be this year.

#3-Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jimmy Crooks, and Gordon Graceffo to the Miami Marlins for Eury Perez. Trade Values are Gorman 16.8, Burleson 11.6, Crooks 12.2 and Graceffo 1.4 for a total of 42. Perez has a BTV of 43.7. Perez is a 6’8” 220 pound righthander. He is 22 years old and has 19 big league starts. He is coming off TJ surgery and is scheduled to be pitching again after the All-Star break. He has true #1 stuff. In 2023 he put up 2.7 WAR in 19 starts. Perez won’t be a free agent until 2030. Why would the Marlins consider this? They might not (aim for bigger targets, remember?). He has a lot of team control left and a big upside. However, there is a risk to them if they keep him, and to us if they trade him, that he won’t be the same pitcher. In the NL East they may be in last place for years to come if they don’t take drastic action. They could trade Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara and really overhaul their whole position player outlook, and the Marlins would still have several pretty good pitchers left, though not on the level of these two. They may need quantity more badly than they need quality. This trade would give them three players that would probably start for them. We need the quality more badly than the quantity. He would be so important to us that I would be willing to overpay if they would make him available. This is a risk worth taking. This is a difference maker.

Obviously it doesn’t have to be exactly this, but this is an example of the types of trades they should be looking at. Reduce roster clutter. Get some players with upside. There are going to be so many teams in the playoff hunt- it should be a sellers’ market. The Cardinals should have something for everyone. Will they have the courage to capitalize on it even it they kind of, sort of, think they might have a chance at a wildcard spot too? I hope they will. It’s a unique opportunity in that they have the right kind of players to offer, the right teams in the market, and a fanbase that will largely give them the “runway” to carry this out.

Very well thought out and logical ideas. I don't know if any of them would happen, but, would entertain them favorably as a fan. I'm not crazy about Helsley leaving, but, we have little control over his future. Still, it would end 2025 prospects for postseason... My alternative would be to extend both Fedde and Helsley 3 years using QO machinations along with pursuing them in the postseason. Yes, we can afford it with existing moves in place.

Love the Miami idea. None of those players, not even Crooks, are vital to our future plans. Davis and Wetherholt will be beating down the door next year. We might not miss any of the 3 position players you proffered.

We are getting our monies worth this year from Arenado. We'd need a player like Farris to convince me it's worth it. Arenado's cost diminishes over the next couple years, removing any imperative for his departure.

Keep working your magic Chaim...

[Talkin' Baseball]

Interesting trade ideas, but if you trade Arenado, don't you want to keep Gorman to see what his potential is at 3B? Also, I would want more than singular arms back in those trades. I want at least another prospect. The Cards pitching depth is in utter shambles at the moment. This was discussed on Goold's chat this week. Outside of McGreevy, they have zero SPs close to the MLs with the injuries to Mathews, Hence and Thompson. Their minor league relief debt is all here except for Granillo. It is shallow. So they also need a trade or so to get close to ML ready relief talent.

I am pretty excited about the talent and the pipeline. Wetherholdt is hitting. Chase Davis is hitting in AA. Nootbar, Scott II, Donovan, Herrera, Pages and Wynn all seem to be good players. They need to find out about Gorman, Walker and Saggesse, which gets to your point about clearing roster space as part of the reset. Probably your idea is on point and they can just go get 2-3 Phil Maton's this off season in free agency and be a pretty good team next year. But, if they trade Gorman, I assume you are relying on Saggesse/Wetherhold at 3B?

I am perfectly willing to trade Gorman. Trade him while other teams are willing to buy into the power potential. He is too streaky, strikes out too much, and his back worries me. And yes, if we don't trade for another 3B I am relying on Donovan, Saggese, and Wetherholt to fill 2b and 3b.
As far as the singular arms you mention, I understand the risk involved there- risk of injury, or risk that they won't pan out- but the singular arms is kind of the point. Apply all of your trade capital to one high ceiling target. Don't dilute it.
The pitching depth will come. We're fortunate right now that the major league staff seems very healthy. As you point out, the minor leagues not so much.

[RunSup]

The Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes is tiresome. Even Amzinger on the MLB Tonight starts it again up every time Nado does something.

If the Cardinals are in contention, Arenado is going nowhere at the deadline.

Likewise with Helsley. If in contention, he stays. They give him a QO and let some other team beat it in Free Agency. But at least get the draft pick.

They could trade Fedde & Mikolas for anything and not lose much. Still need innings for the end of the year. If you can trade them, Matz may be useful to finish the year.

I am hoping the Cardinals pull it together and make a playoff run this year. Just to stick it to all the negativity. It's in the Players hands now. Not Mi's

[RunSup]

Ps. If they do trade Arenado, the Cardinals have no need to add money to the deal. He is earning his salary. Any contending team with a need at 3B would be ecstatic to have him.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Ps. If they do trade Arenado, the Cardinals have no need to add money to the deal. He is earning his salary. Any contending team with a need at 3B would be ecstatic to have him.

I'm with you. I think he is earning his salary. The added money allows the Cardinals to receive a better prospect than they would otherwise. His value is no longer negative.

[Talkin' Baseball]

The Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes is tiresome. Even Amzinger on the MLB Tonight starts it again up every time Nado does something.

If the Cardinals are in contention, Arenado is going nowhere at the deadline.

Likewise with Helsley. If in contention, he stays. They give him a QO and let some other team beat it in Free Agency. But at least get the draft pick.

They could trade Fedde & Mikolas for anything and not lose much. Still need innings for the end of the year. If you can trade them, Matz may be useful to finish the year.

I am hoping the Cardinals pull it together and make a playoff run this year. Just to stick it to all the negativity. It's in the Players hands now. Not Mi's

We have differing opinions on this. That's fine. You might be right. In my opinion, to be in contention means they have a reasonable chance to win the division. I think there will be no wild card teams from the NL Central.

[RunSup]

The Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes is tiresome. Even Amzinger on the MLB Tonight starts it again up every time Nado does something.

If the Cardinals are in contention, Arenado is going nowhere at the deadline.

Likewise with Helsley. If in contention, he stays. They give him a QO and let some other team beat it in Free Agency. But at least get the draft pick.

They could trade Fedde & Mikolas for anything and not lose much. Still need innings for the end of the year. If you can trade them, Matz may be useful to finish the year.

I am hoping the Cardinals pull it together and make a playoff run this year. Just to stick it to all the negativity. It's in the Players hands now. Not Mi's

We have differing opinions on this. That's fine. You might be right. In my opinion, to be in contention means they have a reasonable chance to win the division. I think there will be no wild card teams from the NL Central.

It's all good.

It's still spring and I still have hope. If it collapses, there will be cheap resale seats available during the summer for me to catch a few games.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Some good trade suggestions, but it does take two to make them. I doubt those teams would give up such highly prized prospects. But a good GM might be able to make some of those trades. Unfortunately, that is not STL right now.

The Dodgers and the Orioles will give up prospects. It may not be for these trades, or to us at all, but they will trade prospects. The Dodgers aren't fooling around. They don't "hope" to win a World Series, to "think" they could win a World Series soon. They mean to win the World Series THIS year. The Orioles have to make a move somehow. They have all this incredible young talent with their clocks ticking. They have players without a place to go and at the same time, have gaping holes in their pitching. They have to do something, and the highly prized prospects are their ticket.

[Bushiro]

This thread makes the assumption that the goal of a reset that the front office talked about at the post season press conference is still the goal. I thought much could be accomplished with what they were describing and so I liked the idea. I like the idea because I think the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to do this. They aren’t “bad”, but as described often, they are stuck in the middle. They actually have some veteran players that teams will want, as well as some redundancies among young players at some positions. So, there is something to work with- if they just will. They have already begun hedging this position, and more than it being a case of them changing their mind, I actually think it is because they are scared to death to do it. The front office has been very poor at talent evaluation and though they would never admit it, I think they realize this. I think Mozeliak also realizes that the moves he makes this summer are his last ones and he will leave the final impression of his work. He doesn’t want to mess it up and so he lays out an alternate goal of trying to win this year that he can pivot to if he can’t accomplish a reset. Likewise, if they don’t win, he can say, “This year was never about the record, it was a reset”. Your first goal was a good one- execute the plan. Be bold- execute the plan.
Having said that, I expect half measures. He will perform a “middling” reset. Here is what I think a bolder reset of the roster might look like. Be the most active team at the trade deadline regardless of the record. Aim for bigger targets than we have in the past. Package some players where you can and aim to get one, better player in return. Don’t trade the best trade chips for a couple of guys in the other teams’ teens and twenties on their prospect list. Get someone from their top 5 prospect list. Move early if you can. Tell teams that you intend to trade Player X within 10 days after the All-Star break. Get to teams before the market narrows. With 3-4 days left before the deadline circle back to Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and see if their position on staying has changed. It’s interesting that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles in the AL East all need the same thing from us. That could be fun.
For the “It’s way too early crowd”, it is early, but it’s never too early to be evaluating, and never to early to be developing plans. Some suggestions:
#1-Erick Fedde and Ryan Helsley to the Baltimore Orioles for Coby Mayo. Fedde has a Baseball Trade Value (BTV) of 14.2, Helsley of 13, and Mayo of 27.2. Coby Mayo is 23 years old. He is the #13 prospect in the major leagues according to MLB. He is Baltimore’s #2 prospect. Mayo plays primarily 3B, but also can play 1B. He is 6’4” and goes 230. He has extreme power and a very strong arm. He is currently at AAA. The MLB.com scouting report lists Austin Riley as a comp. Why would Baltimore trade him? They tanked for a long time for the chance to compete and they are 2 years into their window. They have started poorly and their pitching is a mess. Corbin Burnes left and they are dealing with injuries. Frankly, if they don’t make the playoffs this year- someone is getting fired. POBO, GM, Manager, or all of the above. They also have no place to play him. Their infield consists of Westburg at 3B, Henderson at SS, Holliday at 2B and Mountcastle at 1B. Also, the only prospect Baltimore has ahead of Mayo also plays 1B. Trading for Fedde and Helsley would not only shore up their pitching, it would prevent the Yankees, or Red Sox from getting them. This trade would have the best chance of being completed well before the deadline. The Orioles have started poorly and they may be willing to make moves with short-term benefits to secure their jobs. An infield of Contreras (or, whoever) at 1b, Wetherholt at 2B, Winn at SS, and Mayo at 3B would be one to go into battle with.

#2-Nolan Arenado and $12M to the Dodgers for Jackson Farris. Nolan’s value is improving as the deadline approaches due to his performance, 2/3 of his contract for the year being paid by the deadline, and stronger need from the receiving team. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Arenado’s remaining contract goes like this; 2025 he makes 32M, the Rockies pay 5M, and 6M is deferred (the Cardinal’s do deferrals too). Under these terms he is being paid 21M this season, and by the deadline there will be approximately 7M remaining. In 2026 he is slated to make 27M with the Rockies paying 5M, and 6M being deferred. So, his salary is effectively 16M. In 2027 Arenado will make 15M with no other monies being paid. The Cardinals should pay the deferrals ($12M) and try not to include any other money. The Dodgers get him for 7M this year, 16M next year, and 15M the following year. Who the heck is Jackson Farris? He is a 21 year-old lefthander who is in AA presently. He is MLB’s #67 overall prospect and the Dodgers’ #4 prospect. He is their top pitching prospect and was their minor league pitcher of the year. He has a mid-90’s fastball. Jackson stands 6’4” and is listed at 195 pounds. MLB.com lists Blake Snell as having a similar type of profile, but states that Farris is farther along in his development than Snell was at this age. Why would the Dodgers do this? (This is where the "it is early" caveats come in) They have a much tougher dog fight in their division than I think anyone anticipated. That isn’t going away. The Dodgers window for championships is wide open now. They have spent a ton of money to get there. They don’t have many weaknesses, but 3B presently is awful for them. They weren’t expecting Max Muncy to fall of a cliff offensively. At this writing he has 0 home runs, a .193 batting average, a .572 OPS, and a 69 OPS+. Yikes! He has never been a good defensive 3B and Betts at SS is also below average defensively. Nolan Arenado is the very best available fix for their problem- and that is how the Dodgers roll. Jackson Farris, while valuable, is 12th, or 13th in line for a shot at the rotation (no exaggeration). The Dodgers won’t bat an eye at letting that go if it gets them where they want to be this year.

#3-Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jimmy Crooks, and Gordon Graceffo to the Miami Marlins for Eury Perez. Trade Values are Gorman 16.8, Burleson 11.6, Crooks 12.2 and Graceffo 1.4 for a total of 42. Perez has a BTV of 43.7. Perez is a 6’8” 220 pound righthander. He is 22 years old and has 19 big league starts. He is coming off TJ surgery and is scheduled to be pitching again after the All-Star break. He has true #1 stuff. In 2023 he put up 2.7 WAR in 19 starts. Perez won’t be a free agent until 2030. Why would the Marlins consider this? They might not (aim for bigger targets, remember?). He has a lot of team control left and a big upside. However, there is a risk to them if they keep him, and to us if they trade him, that he won’t be the same pitcher. In the NL East they may be in last place for years to come if they don’t take drastic action. They could trade Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara and really overhaul their whole position player outlook, and the Marlins would still have several pretty good pitchers left, though not on the level of these two. They may need quantity more badly than they need quality. This trade would give them three players that would probably start for them. We need the quality more badly than the quantity. He would be so important to us that I would be willing to overpay if they would make him available. This is a risk worth taking. This is a difference maker.

Obviously it doesn’t have to be exactly this, but this is an example of the types of trades they should be looking at. Reduce roster clutter. Get some players with upside. There are going to be so many teams in the playoff hunt- it should be a sellers’ market. The Cardinals should have something for everyone. Will they have the courage to capitalize on it even it they kind of, sort of, think they might have a chance at a wildcard spot too? I hope they will. It’s a unique opportunity in that they have the right kind of players to offer, the right teams in the market, and a fanbase that will largely give them the “runway” to carry this out.

This team is pathetic...cards..pirates..braves and rockies are a combined 6-38 on the road....I don't ever remember the redbirds being this bad on the road...

[Talkin' Baseball]

This thread makes the assumption that the goal of a reset that the front office talked about at the post season press conference is still the goal. I thought much could be accomplished with what they were describing and so I liked the idea. I like the idea because I think the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to do this. They aren’t “bad”, but as described often, they are stuck in the middle. They actually have some veteran players that teams will want, as well as some redundancies among young players at some positions. So, there is something to work with- if they just will. They have already begun hedging this position, and more than it being a case of them changing their mind, I actually think it is because they are scared to death to do it. The front office has been very poor at talent evaluation and though they would never admit it, I think they realize this. I think Mozeliak also realizes that the moves he makes this summer are his last ones and he will leave the final impression of his work. He doesn’t want to mess it up and so he lays out an alternate goal of trying to win this year that he can pivot to if he can’t accomplish a reset. Likewise, if they don’t win, he can say, “This year was never about the record, it was a reset”. Your first goal was a good one- execute the plan. Be bold- execute the plan.
Having said that, I expect half measures. He will perform a “middling” reset. Here is what I think a bolder reset of the roster might look like. Be the most active team at the trade deadline regardless of the record. Aim for bigger targets than we have in the past. Package some players where you can and aim to get one, better player in return. Don’t trade the best trade chips for a couple of guys in the other teams’ teens and twenties on their prospect list. Get someone from their top 5 prospect list. Move early if you can. Tell teams that you intend to trade Player X within 10 days after the All-Star break. Get to teams before the market narrows. With 3-4 days left before the deadline circle back to Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and see if their position on staying has changed. It’s interesting that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles in the AL East all need the same thing from us. That could be fun.
For the “It’s way too early crowd”, it is early, but it’s never too early to be evaluating, and never to early to be developing plans. Some suggestions:
#1-Erick Fedde and Ryan Helsley to the Baltimore Orioles for Coby Mayo. Fedde has a Baseball Trade Value (BTV) of 14.2, Helsley of 13, and Mayo of 27.2. Coby Mayo is 23 years old. He is the #13 prospect in the major leagues according to MLB. He is Baltimore’s #2 prospect. Mayo plays primarily 3B, but also can play 1B. He is 6’4” and goes 230. He has extreme power and a very strong arm. He is currently at AAA. The MLB.com scouting report lists Austin Riley as a comp. Why would Baltimore trade him? They tanked for a long time for the chance to compete and they are 2 years into their window. They have started poorly and their pitching is a mess. Corbin Burnes left and they are dealing with injuries. Frankly, if they don’t make the playoffs this year- someone is getting fired. POBO, GM, Manager, or all of the above. They also have no place to play him. Their infield consists of Westburg at 3B, Henderson at SS, Holliday at 2B and Mountcastle at 1B. Also, the only prospect Baltimore has ahead of Mayo also plays 1B. Trading for Fedde and Helsley would not only shore up their pitching, it would prevent the Yankees, or Red Sox from getting them. This trade would have the best chance of being completed well before the deadline. The Orioles have started poorly and they may be willing to make moves with short-term benefits to secure their jobs. An infield of Contreras (or, whoever) at 1b, Wetherholt at 2B, Winn at SS, and Mayo at 3B would be one to go into battle with.

#2-Nolan Arenado and $12M to the Dodgers for Jackson Farris. Nolan’s value is improving as the deadline approaches due to his performance, 2/3 of his contract for the year being paid by the deadline, and stronger need from the receiving team. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Arenado’s remaining contract goes like this; 2025 he makes 32M, the Rockies pay 5M, and 6M is deferred (the Cardinal’s do deferrals too). Under these terms he is being paid 21M this season, and by the deadline there will be approximately 7M remaining. In 2026 he is slated to make 27M with the Rockies paying 5M, and 6M being deferred. So, his salary is effectively 16M. In 2027 Arenado will make 15M with no other monies being paid. The Cardinals should pay the deferrals ($12M) and try not to include any other money. The Dodgers get him for 7M this year, 16M next year, and 15M the following year. Who the heck is Jackson Farris? He is a 21 year-old lefthander who is in AA presently. He is MLB’s #67 overall prospect and the Dodgers’ #4 prospect. He is their top pitching prospect and was their minor league pitcher of the year. He has a mid-90’s fastball. Jackson stands 6’4” and is listed at 195 pounds. MLB.com lists Blake Snell as having a similar type of profile, but states that Farris is farther along in his development than Snell was at this age. Why would the Dodgers do this? (This is where the "it is early" caveats come in) They have a much tougher dog fight in their division than I think anyone anticipated. That isn’t going away. The Dodgers window for championships is wide open now. They have spent a ton of money to get there. They don’t have many weaknesses, but 3B presently is awful for them. They weren’t expecting Max Muncy to fall of a cliff offensively. At this writing he has 0 home runs, a .193 batting average, a .572 OPS, and a 69 OPS+. Yikes! He has never been a good defensive 3B and Betts at SS is also below average defensively. Nolan Arenado is the very best available fix for their problem- and that is how the Dodgers roll. Jackson Farris, while valuable, is 12th, or 13th in line for a shot at the rotation (no exaggeration). The Dodgers won’t bat an eye at letting that go if it gets them where they want to be this year.

#3-Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Jimmy Crooks, and Gordon Graceffo to the Miami Marlins for Eury Perez. Trade Values are Gorman 16.8, Burleson 11.6, Crooks 12.2 and Graceffo 1.4 for a total of 42. Perez has a BTV of 43.7. Perez is a 6’8” 220 pound righthander. He is 22 years old and has 19 big league starts. He is coming off TJ surgery and is scheduled to be pitching again after the All-Star break. He has true #1 stuff. In 2023 he put up 2.7 WAR in 19 starts. Perez won’t be a free agent until 2030. Why would the Marlins consider this? They might not (aim for bigger targets, remember?). He has a lot of team control left and a big upside. However, there is a risk to them if they keep him, and to us if they trade him, that he won’t be the same pitcher. In the NL East they may be in last place for years to come if they don’t take drastic action. They could trade Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara and really overhaul their whole position player outlook, and the Marlins would still have several pretty good pitchers left, though not on the level of these two. They may need quantity more badly than they need quality. This trade would give them three players that would probably start for them. We need the quality more badly than the quantity. He would be so important to us that I would be willing to overpay if they would make him available. This is a risk worth taking. This is a difference maker.

Obviously it doesn’t have to be exactly this, but this is an example of the types of trades they should be looking at. Reduce roster clutter. Get some players with upside. There are going to be so many teams in the playoff hunt- it should be a sellers’ market. The Cardinals should have something for everyone. Will they have the courage to capitalize on it even it they kind of, sort of, think they might have a chance at a wildcard spot too? I hope they will. It’s a unique opportunity in that they have the right kind of players to offer, the right teams in the market, and a fanbase that will largely give them the “runway” to carry this out.

This team is pathetic...cards..pirates..braves and rockies are a combined 6-38 on the road....I don't ever remember the redbirds being this bad on the road...

Yeah, the road record is really bad. Really bad. I don't see the team as pathetic though. The roster, while oddly constructed does have some compelling players to build around. I'm not living and dying with every play and every loss. They are successfully answering some of the questions they need answered and the players who need to be traded at the deadline are doing a good job of building their value. It won't happen this year, but the Cardinals are not that far from being sustainably competitive. With demonstrated progress in key areas I am willing to overlook some results this year.