seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 11:30 am
but you're also not giving what the Blues have done with their picks enough credit IMO
I really like our young prospects. I have fallen in love with each of them. They are all quality young men, and I'm glad that they wear our jersey.
However, I'm not going to let that hide the obvious. They don't match up well to the marquis players around the league. They never will. While it would be great to have the best 3rd- and 4th-line in the NHL, I want the best 1st-line and power play. That is way more important and way more exclusive to have. I want to see fast skating, domination, and I want to see the other team's players go flying when we hit them.
The best thing that could happen to our existing recruits is to have the next Ovechkin skating with them. The worst thing that could happen to our existing recruits is that they become the next Barbashev and Oshie.
Setting aside that both Barbashev and Oshie helped earn Cups, let's take stock of the apparent situation and try to get to the Cup from where that is instead of where anyone wished it would be. Up until they went 20-4-3 to finish this season, there was a legitimate chance the team could have picked around #7 or even won the lottery. That corner has been turned though now and we're in a new era. We just are. Things change. This team was able to meld and a viable second line emerged which means we are now going to have playoff runs because the key forwards are young and core.
So ... the question is moot! You can pick at what you perceive as a scab endlessly but the reality is they aren't going to be picking in the top 5 or 10 for awhile unless they acquire someone's first rounder there in some trade we don't know about yet. It's going to have to be either a hockey trade that works out, an opportunist RFA stealing moment like Holloway/Broberg, or UFA signing, or some freak luck at the exact right timing when some 6th rounder miraculously hits or one of the current draftees far exceeds his current projection.
The Blues have not turned a corner. They have succeeded in getting to the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. The Blues have succeeded in acquiring a roster that will keep them middle of the pack for another 5 years.
Let's see how well the "new era Blues" do against one of the best teams in the NHL in the playoffs - when everyone is playing hard.
I don't think the Blues are a full scale contender yet. I would be happily surprised with a series win or even a 7 game series this year. But I expect a playoff push next year and for a few years, and I didn't originally expect one this year. I had the Blues around 9-11 out of 16 in the conf, now they could comfortably be a 4-8 team in the conference with two established lines, good team defense and competitors in net. They haven't turned all corners but they have turned "a" corner IMO. If I'm right and that's where they are, 4th-8th in conference, they still have to get both continued improvement from within and finishing moves by the GM. I think the first is likely and I think whatever happens with the second, I think they're getting more dialed in on the piece(s) they are missing to finish off the puzzle.
Now, if you ask me how I truly feel about the success of the second one my real honest answer is I don't know. I know the reasons I'm skeptical and I know that a happy surprise is in the wheelhouse of this GM also. I am eager to see how it unfolds.
Although the Blues are looking turn the corner with their prospects ( and the addition of Snuggerud and Dvorsky into the mix), you cannot ignore that it's going to still be a dogfight frankly for at least 12 teams in the western conference in upcoming years. We essentially supplanted Nashville and Vancouver who took big steps back but can we count on them to stay down? Utah is charging and will only get better. Are any teams ahead of us in the conference realistically looking to drop off next season? I know that I am getting ahead and let's enjoy this playoff but the road to the post season is not getting any easier next season.
I think you're right and it's that reason I have them in the middle of that top 12 (4th-8th) as currently constructed.
I completely reserve the right to change my opinion with the offseason acquisitions/subtractions of various teams.
In any event it's difficult to see the Blues not being in the playoff mix next year as they should have a sustainably consistent & potent offense and they have a vet defense and solid goaltending along with a coach who can get the whole team to buy in defensively.
PPG wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:06 pm
ASOGG- In comparing Montreal to the Blues the last 5 years, I missed the logic. Saying we were JUST one game better for every 10 games played, doesn't sound like much until you look at the actual numbers.
One game out of 10 equates to 8 games per year, or a total of 16 points. With all of the parity in the NHL, 16 points is huge.
For instance, if the Blues JUST had only 16 more points, they would have the 2nd best record in the entire league, just a few points behind Winnipeg.
Conversely, if they had 16 fewer points, they would have the 23rd best record and would be drafting in the top 10 this year at #9 overall.
And most every team likes to break down there season in 5 or 10 game segments when they try and set reasonable goals for them to achieve.
Just going 6-4 every 10 games for instance, means you finish with at least 98 points and a guaranteed playoff spot.
Conversely, going 4-6 every 10 games leaves you with 64 points & guarantees you a lottery pick every year. This year would be no worse than #3 behind SJ & Chicago.
Thank you for your clear and insightful reply. I'll explain my point further based on your understanding that there is a lot of parity in the NHL. The difference in winning between the losingest team and the winningest team is not that much.
So what, you likely ask...
When fans say... "I don't want #1 overall, because I don't want my team to "TANK", it is stupid logic. Montreal did very little worse in the regular season than the Blues for the last 5 years, and for that LITTLE PAIN, they GAINED DEMIDOV and HUTSON, as well as others. Army and the Blues try very hard to win every game when the season is essentially over, and they cost themselves exceptional prospect talent in doing so. That is what irks me! In another post, I showed how the Blues do very average until late March and April for the last 10 years, and then they start winning. Same thing happened this year.
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey.
It should also be pointed out in fairness that this particular season was sort of a weird one. Two teams have .463 and they hold the 4th and 5th overall picks at the moment. Not crazy weird, last year .463 also got 5th but two years ago it was 8th.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
What I was saying earlier is this ship has sailed because they're .585 right now on a trajectory to the low .600s which is a standard deviation ahead of the .520 you are talking about. That's why I said IMO the question is moot earlier
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
What I was saying earlier is this ship has sailed because they're .585 right now on a trajectory to the low .600s which is a standard deviation ahead of the .520 you are talking about. That's why I said IMO the question is moot earlier
That's what they say in Buffalo too, and their hopes are pinned on prospects that were selected TOP 5.
Here in STL, we are anticipating greatness from guys that were selected at the end of Round 1.
The really funny thing about this is that STL fans feel sorry for Buffalo fans.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
What I was saying earlier is this ship has sailed because they're .585 right now on a trajectory to the low .600s which is a standard deviation ahead of the .520 you are talking about. That's why I said IMO the question is moot earlier
That's what they say in Buffalo too, and their hopes are pinned on prospects that were selected TOP 5.
Here in STL, we are anticipating greatness from guys that were selected at the end of Round 1.
The really funny thing about this is that STL fans feel sorry for Buffalo fans.
Well yeah they're pitied by many ... they have never won a Cup and haven't made the playoffs in a generation and have horrendous management. But nobody in Buffalo says they're .585 (although they're one of the two teams, Montreal being the other, with additionally Calgary if they win tonight, to ever miss with 96 pts) on a trajectory to reach the low .600s because they aren't. But the Blues are literally .585 right now. They were .561 last year and since then they've gotten some key additions and levelups and a coaching change and two years closer to the 2023 draft class arriving.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
What I was saying earlier is this ship has sailed because they're .585 right now on a trajectory to the low .600s which is a standard deviation ahead of the .520 you are talking about. That's why I said IMO the question is moot earlier
That's what they say in Buffalo too, and their hopes are pinned on prospects that were selected TOP 5.
Here in STL, we are anticipating greatness from guys that were selected at the end of Round 1.
The really funny thing about this is that STL fans feel sorry for Buffalo fans.
Well yeah they're pitied by many ... they have never won a Cup and haven't made the playoffs in a generation and have horrendous management. But nobody in Buffalo says they're .585 (although they're one of the two teams, Montreal being the other, with additionally Calgary if they win tonight, to ever miss with 96 pts) on a trajectory to reach the low .600s because they aren't. But the Blues are literally .585 right now. They were .561 last year and since then they've gotten some key additions and levelups and a coaching change and two years closer to the 2023 draft class arriving.
Of the great prospects nearing the gate...
Which one replaces ROR?
Which one is as good as Tarasenko?
Barbashev?
Pietrangelo?
Young Schenn?
Bouwmeester?
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 15:51 pm
I think it was more like 1.4 out of every 10 per your numbers you posted which is small but significant in a world like you say doesn't have that much difference. I mean .383 is BRUTAL hockey
Our 2 options....
1) .383 and no chance to make it to playoffs.
Off-season is full of excitement regarding draft picks.
Future has hope.
The light can be seen at the end of the tunnel.
The kids know what name to put on their jersey.
2) .520 and no chance to make it pass Round 1 of playoffs.
Off-season is spent watching the teams that lost a few more than you pick up the next Ovechkin and Gretzky.
The kids buy no jersey because they don't know what name to put on it.
ASOGG is B_______ every day on BluesTalk.
What I was saying earlier is this ship has sailed because they're .585 right now on a trajectory to the low .600s which is a standard deviation ahead of the .520 you are talking about. That's why I said IMO the question is moot earlier
That's what they say in Buffalo too, and their hopes are pinned on prospects that were selected TOP 5.
Here in STL, we are anticipating greatness from guys that were selected at the end of Round 1.
The really funny thing about this is that STL fans feel sorry for Buffalo fans.
Well yeah they're pitied by many ... they have never won a Cup and haven't made the playoffs in a generation and have horrendous management. But nobody in Buffalo says they're .585 (although they're one of the two teams, Montreal being the other, with additionally Calgary if they win tonight, to ever miss with 96 pts) on a trajectory to reach the low .600s because they aren't. But the Blues are literally .585 right now. They were .561 last year and since then they've gotten some key additions and levelups and a coaching change and two years closer to the 2023 draft class arriving.
Of the great prospects nearing the gate...
Which one replaces ROR?
Which one is as good as Tarasenko?
Barbashev?
Pietrangelo?
Young Schenn?
Bouwmeester?
Those poor B____ have some big shoes to fill.
Here is where you have a legitimate question but you have to also acknowledge only three of those players were drafted by the Blues and three of them were acquired leveraging picks where the Blues were drafting in the 20s. The three players you cited we drafted 4, 16, 33. The latter two are the kind of picks they still do have and have been making.
I think they can acquire a scoring center(s) to accompany Thomas in the hockey trade/free agent market so that they have a comparable 1-2-3 to ROR-Schenn-Bozak with a young Dvorsky being analogous to a young Thomas. And Schenn is still at least short term viable even if he has a lot of miles. The captaincy of an up and coming team is buoying him.
I think it's going to be most difficult to replace an elite #1 defenseman because they don't have one in the system and it's difficult to trade for one. The rebuttal people make is that a team like Florida could win with a bunch of merely very good defenders, and the rebuttal to that is Ekblad went #1 overall, and the rebuttal to that is yeah but he's not really the "true #1 defenseman" in the traditional mold that we are talking about and wishing we had. I mean is Ekblad significantly better than Parayko? We have Parayko. So they are saying maybe Parayko plus four really strong defenders is a viable route as opposed to leaning on a top 3 (with a pinnacle #1 defenseman in the trio) for most minutes. Maybe. And if it's Parayko + four really strong defenders are Broberg, Fowler and Lindstein part of this in the near term too and can they add another player from outside the org to complement the group? Lot of unknowns but it's all in play now, and that to me is the fun of sports.
callitwhatyouwant wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 10:40 am
Burns is having a good year in the O, but it's hard to tell defensively how that ever translates from that league. still too early. It's easy to see guys lighting up the scoreboard on offense and if they do something around half that in the AHL, you know they will belong.
Speak of the devil he is having a big game as they try to even the series with Barrie. He assisted on the first goal and got into it with Cole Beaudoin at the end of the first and they each got roughing minors that split the intermission. Burns comes out of the box and scores, picks up another assist, they are up 6-2 thru 2 periods. Big game from the kid right now ...
Just to finish off Burns' statline for the night:
1G 2A +4 three SOG and two roughing minors in a series evening Game 4 8-4 win.
They do not display hit totals but he had plenty.
Jiricek had a seemingly good night in his team's series evening G4 3-2 loss to Oshawa. He picked up his first postseason assist and has a two game point streak going since he scored in the previous one. What I do not understand is why he plays in the offensive zone in the spot an RHD defends someone down low. It's like he positions himself where an RHD would be if they're hemmed in the zone no matter which zone he is in. He is an incredibly fluid skater getting back in position but that can't make up from his positioning. This is not a one off. I have seen him do it umpteen times he does it multiple times a game. When they pulled the goalie and had 6 attackers it was him so he could stand down there and try to catch a rebound. It is so weird. It is not a thing he can do in the NHL.
Miscellaneously, Ottawa won so the Blues will pick 18 if they lose in rounds 1 or 2.
seattleblue wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 20:50 pm
Just to finish off Burns' statline for the night:
1G 2A +4 three SOG and two roughing minors in a series evening Game 4 8-4 win.
They do not display hit totals but he had plenty.
Jiricek had a seemingly good night in his team's series evening G4 3-2 loss to Oshawa. He picked up his first postseason assist and has a two game point streak going since he scored in the previous one. What I do not understand is why he plays in the offensive zone in the spot an RHD defends someone down low. It's like he positions himself where an RHD would be if they're hemmed in the zone no matter which zone he is in. He is an incredibly fluid skater getting back in position but that can't make up from his positioning. This is not a one off. I have seen him do it umpteen times he does it multiple times a game. When they pulled the goalie and had 6 attackers it was him so he could stand down there and try to catch a rebound. It is so weird. It is not a thing he can do in the NHL.
Miscellaneously, Ottawa won so the Blues will pick 18 if they lose in rounds 1 or 2.
Thanks for the report. Isn't Jay McKee the coach for Brantford? Thought he would help Jiricek adapt his game more overall.
I'm in Portland and have been watching the 2nd round Winterhawks vs Everett. Have you seen Max Pšenička? He's a lanky RHD. He's up for 2025 draft. He seems like a decent shut down dman project that would be nice to have. Although, last night he was playing part time with Carter Sotheran, who also is RHD (drafted by PHI), who knows how to play.
I think he's projected in the 3rd round. Might be a good pick up to another RHD in the system.
I really wish I could see Carter Bear, poor kid (Achilles laceration).
bluetunehead wrote: ↑17 Apr 2025 20:40 pm
I’m not sure why it needs to be reiterated but tanking *did not* get Montreal Lane Hutson. He was the 62nd pick in the draft. That’s called luck.
Tanking did get Buffalo guys like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, who won Stanley Cups for other teams.
It really is a pointless argument because this franchise isnt going to tank i dont believe they can afford a lengthy drop in attendance nor did they need to. They have already drafted well so......
