Reality Check

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Army's Mom
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Re: Reality Check

Post by Army's Mom »

theograce wrote: 10 Apr 2025 10:03 am No matter what happens, a lot of the young guys are hitting which is great. And Thomas is leading. He’s been a boss.
I do enjoy your positive posts. And you're right. Some numbers from notorious Blues-hater Dom, over at the Athletic:

"It’s not just the coach, though — it’s the players executing. Robert Thomas has been the leader, elevating his game to a whole new level since the 4 Nations break (and perhaps showing why he belongs on Team Canada in 2026). In 23 games, Thomas has 34 points, fueled by an absurd 27 assists. The Blues have outscored opponents 24-9 in his minutes, and his average Game Score of 1.79 is the fourth-best mark in the league. He’s been incredible — all while taking on the team’s toughest minutes.

For the season, Thomas is now pacing for 93 points and a plus-15.3 Net Rating. Those are franchise-player numbers and his leap to that level is part of what’s changed the math around St. Louis’ contention window."
Harry S Deals
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Re: Reality Check

Post by Harry S Deals »

Army's Mom wrote: 10 Apr 2025 10:35 am
theograce wrote: 10 Apr 2025 10:03 am No matter what happens, a lot of the young guys are hitting which is great. And Thomas is leading. He’s been a boss.
I do enjoy your positive posts. And you're right. Some numbers from notorious Blues-hater Dom, over at the Athletic:

"It’s not just the coach, though — it’s the players executing. Robert Thomas has been the leader, elevating his game to a whole new level since the 4 Nations break (and perhaps showing why he belongs on Team Canada in 2026). In 23 games, Thomas has 34 points, fueled by an absurd 27 assists. The Blues have outscored opponents 24-9 in his minutes, and his average Game Score of 1.79 is the fourth-best mark in the league. He’s been incredible — all while taking on the team’s toughest minutes.

For the season, Thomas is now pacing for 93 points and a plus-15.3 Net Rating. Those are franchise-player numbers and his leap to that level is part of what’s changed the math around St. Louis’ contention window."
Going forward there should only be optimism the Blues have accelerated their timeline with the offer sheet boys the sky is no the limits
seattleblue
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Re: Reality Check

Post by seattleblue »

Significant changes this year

1. Thomas major leap, as articulated by Dom of all people. He and Buch had really been struggling before this burst.
Verdict: looks sustainable, this is HUGE. It's the #1 most important thing IMO.

2. Kyrou has truly grown up. That play he made while McDavid was hooking him to keep the puck in the zone and generate a scoring chance, that is a Kyrou I have not seen or believed existed. I realize it's one play and he's made many strides throughout the year (other plays) but there was something about this one when I saw it, I can now actually believe in Kyrou.
Verdict: looks sustainable, given how long the runway was to get here, and getting here is a series of committed decisions

3. Holloway was not on the team this year, and now he is the most important player to expand the offense past Thomas' line. Adding this specific 23 year old player accelerated the team's RE-.
Verdict: Probably getting a Holloway jersey. Well deserved new fan favorite. Sustainable. What a smart, hustling, skilled player.

4. Parayko has not been the "true #1 D" that Armstrong had hoped for when he made that major earlier decision on the other guy, but this year he built on some of what he started last year and this year could be properly called a true 1D season.
Verdict: This could be a peak year for Parayko, or part of a 2-3 year peak year period, but at any rate his NHL games 700-1000 which he is in now look like they will be very solid ones at a minimum.

5. Binnington changed the Blues season when he did what he did for Canada. I cannot prove this, but I have a sense of how people work, and I think watching their doubted teammate, who they love, do what he did, for Canada, it made them believe they could beat anyone with him in net. The emotional boost from that is completely inextricable from what the Blues did after the break.
Verdict: I'm not ever going to have a more favorite goalie in my lifetime.

6. Fowler (and a 4th!) for a 2d. I mean (bleep). The whole Fowler-Suter of it all this year has really worked out
Verdict: Not necessarily sustainable, BUT there are some quality 2d-5th defenders percolating in the nearish term right now in the system.

7. Tyler Tucker is not a bum. He is a solid 3d pairing defender. Last year at this time I thought for sure it was Kessel because Kessel looked really good in the actual NHL for a large stretch last year. But this moon-faced google eye kid found something. Granted he can still be beat to the outside like the collision in the crease last night when his man went around him, but he was getting turnstiled before and he has figured it out.
Verdict: New Bortuzzo 6-7 dman

8. Neighbours & Bolduc are progressing as very solid middle sixers. Neighbours I thought would be right where he is but Bolduc / Montgomery is a fantastic match, they are clearly on the same page with how his game needs to build.
Verdict: With Snuggerud, Dvorsky, Stenberg, Stancl all looking like real NHL talent the Blues have options.

9. Montgomery is the right coach. I don't need to belabor this.
Verdict: Great assertiveness in getting this coach by Armstrong.

10. Broberg is going to take a few years to improve, but he will. He is a top four defender.
Verdict: adding a top four defender and a PPG scoring line catalyst for a 2d, two 3ds and a (good) depth prospect is just a huge coup.

Overall verdict is Armstrong made decisions to put himself in position where, if other things went well, the team could leap forward. That is his job, He did his job. I loathed the decisions of 9/27/20, that horror dark day, and we've been twiddling thumbs for a few years as a result, but he battled back this year. I appreciate the grit of it.
STL fan in MN
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Re: Reality Check

Post by STL fan in MN »

The Blues have become more sloppy the last 4-5 games. Hopefully these last 2 games in particular are the kick in the pants they needed to get back to peak performance. Parayko is on the trip as well so perhaps he plays the last game or two. Getting him back would be huge.

Hopefully this team didn’t peak too early. That said, I think the winning streak raised expectations for some fans too high. They’re still a huge underdog in the playoffs. The goal here should be gaining playoff experience for the young guys. Winning any rounds would be gravy. That said, they’re capable of beating anyone…but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Holloway injury and his hopeful eventual return is key. Our 2nd line has been near useless since he went out. He’s the catalyst to a well balanced attack. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him in Round 1. Solid chance we don’t see him on the ice again until training camp but I hope I’m wrong on that.
seattleblue
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Re: Reality Check

Post by seattleblue »

Before I am corrected repeatedly, I acknowledge a typo in the Holloway part. "was not on the team this time last year" is what I meant to say.
callitwhatyouwant
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Re: Reality Check

Post by callitwhatyouwant »

STL fan in MN wrote: 10 Apr 2025 11:31 am The Blues have become more sloppy the last 4-5 games. Hopefully these last 2 games in particular are the kick in the pants they needed to get back to peak performance. Parayko is on the trip as well so perhaps he plays the last game or two. Getting him back would be huge.

Hopefully this team didn’t peak too early. That said, I think the winning streak raised expectations for some fans too high. They’re still a huge underdog in the playoffs. The goal here should be gaining playoff experience for the young guys. Winning any rounds would be gravy. That said, they’re capable of beating anyone…but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Holloway injury and his hopeful eventual return is key. Our 2nd line has been near useless since he went out. He’s the catalyst to a well balanced attack. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him in Round 1. Solid chance we don’t see him on the ice again until training camp but I hope I’m wrong on that.
I agree completely with you. It's kind of why during the winning streak I told people to stop assuming playoffs are coming. I will not start talking about matchups until this team is actually in it. There is nothing saying we are going to get 3 points out of our next 2 games. There is nothing indicating that Calgary won't pull a rabbit out of their hat. They choked off yesterdays game, but they also have done the inverse like 3 times in the last 6.

The Blues are still 7-10 in the west, but probably close to 6 then they are 9. They have shown they can beat calgary convincingly so I'd like to say they are the more deserving team to get into the playoffs. Their goal differential definitely shows that they are better than them. I won't hold that over the mild since they have been hampered by injuries. But this Blues team if it gets anything close to Parayko as Parayko was playing will still be a tough out. What made this team good even when we weren't winning was that the defense was playing a pretty high level brand. Our weakest points were the PP and our forward goals production. The Blues had elite scoring coming from the D because of the Emergence of Parayko and Fowler offensively. I think we were 4th? before Parayko went down from scoring from the defense.

The task this team has without Holloway is if we can produce goals from the 2nd and 3rd lines. I think Bolduc and Neighbours have shown they can get something done at a solid rate. Can we get Snuggy to light the lamp as well as Dvorsky is we are using Dvorsky? That will be the question.
Army's Mom
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Re: Reality Check

Post by Army's Mom »

STL fan in MN wrote: 10 Apr 2025 11:31 am The Blues have become more sloppy the last 4-5 games. Hopefully these last 2 games in particular are the kick in the pants they needed to get back to peak performance. Parayko is on the trip as well so perhaps he plays the last game or two. Getting him back would be huge.

Hopefully this team didn’t peak too early. That said, I think the winning streak raised expectations for some fans too high. They’re still a huge underdog in the playoffs. The goal here should be gaining playoff experience for the young guys. Winning any rounds would be gravy. That said, they’re capable of beating anyone…but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Holloway injury and his hopeful eventual return is key. Our 2nd line has been near useless since he went out. He’s the catalyst to a well balanced attack. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him in Round 1. Solid chance we don’t see him on the ice again until training camp but I hope I’m wrong on that.
Always appreciate your takes, and agree with the optimist take here. Two losses and a streak of 4 or 5 games doesnt undermine the strides made by the team (quality of play on ice) or roster (depth on paper).

I'd just add that every playoff game played is another goal met for this team at this juncture. They weren't projected to be a playoff team (though some fans rightly thought they could be one). Even if they get swept, that's valuable experience gained for guys like Neighbours and Bolduc, and even guys like Thomas and Kyrou.

That said, even without Hollywood, I expect them to push their R1 opponent hard.
dhsux
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Re: Reality Check

Post by dhsux »

STL fan in MN wrote: 10 Apr 2025 11:31 am The Blues have become more sloppy the last 4-5 games. Hopefully these last 2 games in particular are the kick in the pants they needed to get back to peak performance. Parayko is on the trip as well so perhaps he plays the last game or two. Getting him back would be huge.

Hopefully this team didn’t peak too early. That said, I think the winning streak raised expectations for some fans too high. They’re still a huge underdog in the playoffs. The goal here should be gaining playoff experience for the young guys. Winning any rounds would be gravy. That said, they’re capable of beating anyone…but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Holloway injury and his hopeful eventual return is key. Our 2nd line has been near useless since he went out. He’s the catalyst to a well balanced attack. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him in Round 1. Solid chance we don’t see him on the ice again until training camp but I hope I’m wrong on that.
Good post...and I agree with you.

The Blues fell off a bit of their extreme high even before the Holloway injury, which has altered the structure of the team. The fact the team kept winning was great to see and spoke to their across line depth.

We've all seen the bigger mistakes out there lately, but what I'm seeing more of is the fail on the smaller plays..... the simple clears, the cross ice tape to tape passing, the extra effort on fore and back checking....all prevalent during the big run.

Now they are in a bit of a pickle and I really don't know what to expect the next two games but I think it's fair to define them this year on just what the outcome will be. I guess I'll include Monty on this too.

The injuries are tough but....are they the play off team some of us thought they were....or not.

The answer is certainly being played out in grand fashion.
skilles
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Re: Reality Check

Post by skilles »

They seem out of gas to me but yeah they were always still an underdog going into the playoffs,

If we get in and get some playoff experience it will have been a relatively successful season IMO and hopefully the beginning of an upward trend and I think it will be.
Last edited by skilles on 10 Apr 2025 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DawgDad
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Re: Reality Check

Post by DawgDad »

Lots of good comments in this thread, what a treat!

These past two games cannot bring me down too hard on the Blues. What it shows is two of the top Cup contending teams in the league playing at home can without Holloway's presence match up on the Blues much more easily and relegate them to a one-line team, eliminating ALL of the secondary scoring save that SHG (a mistake by their PP unit). I believe they will show better vs Seattle and Utah.

Keep in mind vs Edmonton the Blues had two young forwards in the middle-6 with FIVE total games of NHL experience between them!

The Blues NEED to make the playoffs. Even if they get blown out the young players and the team as a whole need that experience. The veteran team leaders need to notch that achievement, a team goal achieved, hard work that paid off. 19, 20, 22, 23, 23, 24, 24, 25, 25, 25, 26, 28, 29. All the Blues players of those ages will grow from the experience of this playoff run and from making the playoffs, from feeling as a group they have taken one big step up the ladder versus another losing season to be forgotten.
blues2112
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Re: Reality Check

Post by blues2112 »

Jets have most points in league; Blues lost 3-1.

Oilers lost game 7 of Finals last year; beat Blues by a goal.

Both games on the road.

Agree with the need to be less sloppy, but no shame in losing the last two games.
Bluesfan1978
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Re: Reality Check

Post by Bluesfan1978 »

Great comments. Just want to reiterate my original post wasn’t meant to be negative or a doom in gloom post. I actually am feeling very positive about the steps this team has taken. The effort is there. The team keeps staying in games. They had a chance to win every game since the four nations.
I think the 12 game win streak had me getting a bit ahead of myself as far as what I’m now expecting the team to achieve in the playoffs. I do think if they get in that thats a success for this team. If they don’t get in and can’t overcome the Parayko and Holloway injuries I still think this year was a win for the team heading in the right direction. I also realize I’m comparing how they play to teams like Vegas who are one of the top teams in the league and have played the right way for the last several years.
As other pointed out the team could also just be tired the last few games. It’s been a busy schedule.
seattleblue
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Re: Reality Check

Post by seattleblue »

It's a time of resurgence for Jon Hamm, and us.
BalotelliMassive
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Re: Reality Check

Post by BalotelliMassive »

On Topic

Is Reality Czech still posting?
oldbattler
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Re: Reality Check

Post by oldbattler »

callitwhatyouwant wrote: 10 Apr 2025 11:48 am
STL fan in MN wrote: 10 Apr 2025 11:31 am The Blues have become more sloppy the last 4-5 games. Hopefully these last 2 games in particular are the kick in the pants they needed to get back to peak performance. Parayko is on the trip as well so perhaps he plays the last game or two. Getting him back would be huge.

Hopefully this team didn’t peak too early. That said, I think the winning streak raised expectations for some fans too high. They’re still a huge underdog in the playoffs.Th e goal here should be gaining playoff experience for the young guys. Winning any rounds would be gravy. That said, they’re capable of beating anyone…but I wouldn’t bet on them.

The Holloway injury and his hopeful eventual return is key. Our 2nd line has been near useless since he went out. He’s the catalyst to a well balanced attack. Unfortunately, I don’t expect him in Round 1. Solid chance we don’t see him on the ice again until training camp but I hope I’m wrong on that.
I will I agree completely with you. It's kind of why during the winning streak I told people to stop assuming playoffs are coming.not start talking about matchups until this team is actually in it. There is nothing saying we are going to get 3 points out of our next 2 games. There is nothing indicating that Calgary won't pull a rabbit out of their hat. They choked off yesterdays game, but they also have done the inverse like 3 times in the last 6.

The Blues are still 7-10 in the west, but probably close to 6 then they are 9. They have shown they can beat calgary convincingly so I'd like to say they are the more deserving team to get into the playoffs. Their goal differential definitely shows that they are better than them. I won't hold that over the mild since they have been hampered by injuries. But this Blues team if it gets anything close to Parayko as Parayko was playing will still be a tough out. What made this team good even when we weren't winning was that the defense was playing a pretty high level brand. Our weakest points were the PP and our forward goals production. The Blues had elite scoring coming from the D because of the Emergence of Parayko and Fowler offensively. I think we were 4th? before Parayko went down from scoring from the defense.

The task this team has without Holloway is if we can produce goals from the 2nd and 3rd lines. I think Bolduc and Neighbours have shown they can get something done at a solid rate. Can we get Snuggy to light the lamp as well as Dvorsky is we are using Dvorsky? That will be the question.
+1 To you both
We need to get in first and I not so sure the way the Blues have been playing of late and without Holliday if we will.
I also agree with STL Fan in MN. That getting in the playoffs even if they lose would be a Great experience for the young Blues Players.
dhsux
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Re: Reality Check

Post by dhsux »

If the Blues can get into the play offs I see that as a separate issue than what is happening right now.

I have no doubt the blues could win a round 1.

The matter at hand AND the challenge at hand right now is to just get in.

Monty...do your stuff my man.
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