Fedde and other considerations

[RichieRichSTL]

ERA is a good indicator, but not always foolproof.

If a pitcher has a lot of unearned runs, it can show he doesn't know how to pitch around mistakes.

If a pitcher has 2 6 inning/1 run starts and 3 inning 6 run start, his team is more likely than not to win 2 of the 3. But his ERA might be near 5.

If he has a 4.00 ERA during the season, but turns it on in the playoffs and othet times when it counts most, he is a stud.

Fedde had one really good start and one awful one. Basically, one very winnable and one not so winnable. If his ratio is anywhere near this, then his value is low. If every 5 starts he has 3 high quality (6+ innings, 1 or less run) starts, one other QS and one horibble, his ERA might be so so but he has a lot of value.

So, let's look at how many high quality starts he has, how many quality (but not high quality), how many tolerable (6IP/4R), bad 1R per inning, and awful (like today).

We are looking for games that he pitches that are likely wins or very winnable vs. likely losses or are more likely to lose.
That's the name of the game. Give your team a chance to win a good majority of the time you are big asset. Hope that they win in spite of you much of the team and you are a liability.

Today wasn't making the case that he's a good asset, 1 of two acceptable starts so far, but it is way too early to assess him. His ratio has to improve though. That much is true.

[Goldfan]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

[Quincy Varnish]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

Today he was sitting around 92 with his sinker, 90 on the cutter. Threw both 93-94 a few times. So, yes?

[Goldfan]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

Today he was sitting around 92 with his sinker, 90 on the cutter. Threw both 93-94 a few times. So, yes?

2025 Sinker STL R 22 93.8
2025 Sweeper STL R 12 83.3
2025 Changeup STL R 11 87.1
2025 Cutter STL R 28 90.8

The league’s SP live at 95 and most of our staff don’t even tough it

[Quincy Varnish]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

Today he was sitting around 92 with his sinker, 90 on the cutter. Threw both 93-94 a few times. So, yes?

2025 Sinker STL R 22 93.8
2025 Sweeper STL R 12 83.3
2025 Changeup STL R 11 87.1
2025 Cutter STL R 28 90.8

The league’s SP live at 95 and most of our staff don’t even tough it

Neat. Roycroft throws 95. I guess they should start him.

[Goldfan]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

Today he was sitting around 92 with his sinker, 90 on the cutter. Threw both 93-94 a few times. So, yes?

2025 Sinker STL R 22 93.8
2025 Sweeper STL R 12 83.3
2025 Changeup STL R 11 87.1
2025 Cutter STL R 28 90.8

The league’s SP live at 95 and most of our staff don’t even tough it

Neat. Roycroft throws 95. I guess they should start him.

Not sure how neat it is…..most of the league has power arms, we’re stuck with nibblers that if they miss its meatball time

[Quincy Varnish]

Does he throw a pitch over 90?

Today he was sitting around 92 with his sinker, 90 on the cutter. Threw both 93-94 a few times. So, yes?

2025 Sinker STL R 22 93.8
2025 Sweeper STL R 12 83.3
2025 Changeup STL R 11 87.1
2025 Cutter STL R 28 90.8

The league’s SP live at 95 and most of our staff don’t even tough it

Neat. Roycroft throws 95. I guess they should start him.

Not sure how neat it is…..most of the league has power arms, we’re stuck with nibblers that if they miss its meatball time

Woe is us.

[mattmitchl44]

What I expect will be true is that we'll look back on his 2024 season as his "career year" that he won't replicate going forward.

As noted this past winter, the Cardinals mistake wasn't acquiring Fedde last year - but it probably was not making it a priority to move him this past offseason.

[rockondlouie]

One VG start

One very bad start

Way too early for overreaction time.

[scoutyjones2]

One VG start

One very bad start

Way too early for overreaction time.

Not for CT. Bipolar whiny (female canine animals, especially dogs).

[woofy25]

What I expect will be true is that we'll look back on his 2024 season as his "career year" that he won't replicate going forward.

As noted this past winter, the Cardinals mistake wasn't acquiring Fedde last year - but it probably was not making it a priority to move him this past offseason.

I’ve been stating the same thing for months. Completely agree

[rockondlouie]

One VG start

One very bad start

Way too early for overreaction time.

Not for CT. Bipolar whiny (female canine animals, especially dogs).

I mean there's some ready to run WillyC out of town after 30 PA's totally ignoring his .263 .367 .468 .835 slash as a Cardinal coming into the season.

BTW, glad you Pen's didn't break our 11 game winning streak.

[scoutyjones2]

One VG start

One very bad start

Way too early for overreaction time.

Not for CT. Bipolar whiny (female canine animals, especially dogs).

I mean there's some ready to run WillyC out of town after 30 PA's totally ignoring his .263 .367 .468 .835 slash as a Cardinal coming into the season.

BTW, glad you Pen's didn't break our 11 game winning streak.

pens can't even tank properly.

[renostl]

One VG start

One very bad start

Way too early for overreaction time.

Not for CT. Bipolar whiny (female canine animals, especially dogs).

I mean there's some ready to run WillyC out of town after 30 PA's totally ignoring his .263 .367 .468 .835 slash as a Cardinal coming into the season.

BTW, glad you Pen's didn't break our 11 game winning streak.

pens can't even tank properly.

Vets with pride can't tank.
It's commendable.

[Chubbs0910]

I think his success boils down to 2 things.

His sweeper which he throws a ton.

Control which I'm pretty impressed with.

A nice player to have while his contract is low, but not one id invest big money or term in.

[renostl]

I think his success boils down to 2 things.

His sweeper which he throws a ton.

Control which I'm pretty impressed with.

A nice player to have while his contract is low, but not one id invest big money or term in.

What is a 33 y/o with 30 starts and with a 1.25 - 1.3 WHIP worth to the Cards who will have several job opportunities in 2026?

In 2024 they spent for

37 y/o Lynn's with a recent 1.30ish WHIP
36 y/o Gibsons with his recent 1.30ish WHIP
35 y/o Mikolas with his recent 1.27+ WHIP
33 y/o Matz and his 1.30+ WHIP and low durability

The cheapest being Lynn's $11 million.

Now if we don't like Fedde, then no reason to pursue. That need or job opening
however will be there in 2026. I'm thinking 3/$36-$40 is a comparative bargain.