Oscar Picks 2025

[Uncle John]

https://www.timesnewspapers.com/webster ... 38a14.html

[Dicktar2023]

Best Picture
-Will win: Conclave
(Anora is the safer bet, but my gut tells me the British voting bloc is going to break in favor of the more traditional choice--based on an British bestseller, no less--rather than 2.5 hours of a shrill New York sex worker screaming at Russian thugs.)
-Should win: I think Dune 2 is the best of these movies.

Best Actor
-Will win: Timmy
-Should win: Timmy. Or Brody. I'm fine with either.
(Most of the "buzz" points to Brody here, but Timmy as Dylan is high-grade AMPAS catnip. Are they going to avoid pouncing on a young performer doing his own singing in a biopic about a beloved Boomer icon in favor of a Big, Serious Drama they'll eventually get around to finishing? I dunno. Then again...Brody plays a Holocaust survivor. Sheesh. This is a close one.)

Best Actress
-Will win: Mikey Madison
-Should win: Demi Moore
(Or at least, I'm rooting for Moore. It would cap off an incredible career comeback. That said, Madison clearly gave the better performance. But she'll get other chances.)

Best S. Actor
-Will Win: Culkin
-Should win: Culkin (full disclosure: I have not seen The Apprentice)
(IMO, the only interesting thing about A Real Pain was seeing Culkin dust off his Roman Roy schtick. It remains to be seen what else he can do as actor, but it will carry him this far.)

Best S. Actress
-Will Win: Saldana
-Should win: Monica Barbaro (I have not seen Wicked)
(The best version of A Complete Unknown would have focused on the Dylan-Baez relationship. I know there are a bunch of reasons that didn't happen, but Barbaro left me wanting much, much more and that's kind of the defining criteria of the category.)

Best Director
-Will Win: Sean Baker
-Should Win: Coralie Fargeat
(My real pick would be Villeneuve, but for some reason that didn't happen. Of these choices, I think Fargeat produced the movie with the boldest and most coherent vision. Like Baker and Corbet, her movie went on too long, but with The Substance, I barely noticed. Honestly, doesn't her schlocky horror flick make these other directors look timid?)

[Pink Freud]

I saw "Conclave" for the second time (both times in a movie theater) just this afternoon, and the theater is also screening "Anora"; "The Brutalist"; "The Substance"; "A Complete Unknown"; and "Wicked" this weekend through Thursday, so I can finally see what all the hootin' 'n hollerin' is about.

The Best Supporting Actress category names two actresses who didn't even utter a line until nearly an hour into their films: Isabella Rossellini at :59 in "Conclave", and Felicity Jones after the intermission in "The Brutalist".

Just waiting to see how Conan makes light of Best Picture nominees with characters such as a transsexual drug lord; a black witch who finds it isn't easy being green; a hermaphrodite; an actress who literally sheds her skin in a Dorian Gray parable; and a young sex worker who marries into Russian oligarch money.

[3dender]

Best Picture
-Will win: Conclave
(Anora is the safer bet, but my gut tells me the British voting bloc is going to break in favor of the more traditional choice--based on an British bestseller, no less--rather than 2.5 hours of a shrill New York sex worker screaming at Russian thugs.)
-Should win: I think Dune 2 is the best of these movies.

Best Actor
-Will win: Timmy
-Should win: Timmy. Or Brody. I'm fine with either.
(Most of the "buzz" points to Brody here, but Timmy as Dylan is high-grade AMPAS catnip. Are they going to avoid pouncing on a young performer doing his own singing in a biopic about a beloved Boomer icon in favor of a Big, Serious Drama they'll eventually get around to finishing? I dunno. Then again...Brody plays a Holocaust survivor. Sheesh. This is a close one.)

Best Actress
-Will win: Mikey Madison
-Should win: Demi Moore
(Or at least, I'm rooting for Moore. It would cap off an incredible career comeback. That said, Madison clearly gave the better performance. But she'll get other chances.)

Best S. Actor
-Will Win: Culkin
-Should win: Culkin (full disclosure: I have not seen The Apprentice)
(IMO, the only interesting thing about A Real Pain was seeing Culkin dust off his Roman Roy schtick. It remains to be seen what else he can do as actor, but it will carry him this far.)

Best S. Actress
-Will Win: Saldana
-Should win: Monica Barbaro (I have not seen Wicked)
(The best version of A Complete Unknown would have focused on the Dylan-Baez relationship. I know there are a bunch of reasons that didn't happen, but Barbaro left me wanting much, much more and that's kind of the defining criteria of the category.)

Best Director
-Will Win: Sean Baker
-Should Win: Coralie Fargeat
(My real pick would be Villeneuve, but for some reason that didn't happen. Of these choices, I think Fargeat produced the movie with the boldest and most coherent vision. Like Baker and Corbet, her movie went on too long, but with The Substance, I barely noticed. Honestly, doesn't her schlocky horror flick make these other directors look timid?)

Thanks for the rundown. Maybe I'll check out Anora at some point, and if I do it'll be thanks to you.

Your esteem for Dune is heartwarming.

[Dicktar2023]

Thanks for the rundown. Maybe I'll check out Anora at some point, and if I do it'll be thanks to you.

Your esteem for Dune is heartwarming.

[Pink Freud]

The Academy will be making a big social and economic statement with their Best Picture winner.

If it's "Anora", they'll have anointed a sex & nudity-soaked film that grossed less at the box office than any other BP winner.

If it's "Emilia Perez".... AMPAS will join the New York/Los Angeles Times in apparently believing half the population is LGBTQ-BIPOC-ABCDEFG-lamma lamma ding gong.

If it's "Conclave", look for the Catholic Church to demand full medical histories of seminarians.

If "The Brutalist" wins, watch Rick Steves take "Travels In Europe" tours of marble mines in Carrara, Italy.

If it's "Wicked", theater operators and millions of casual moviegoers will applaud, seeing the top honor go to something THEY liked, while film critics and cinephiles howl.

If it's "A Complete Unknown" and/or wispy Timmy wins Best Actor, watch the Fourth Reich deplore the continuing feminization of American males.

If "The Substance" wins, just wait for the inevitable classic rock ripoff TV commercial jingle for the Rx for moderate to severe Hollywood aging.

[Pink Freud]

The Oscars start in a half hour, and I just got back from seeing "Anora" in a theater that's screening 7 BP noms this week.

Observations (fwiw):

After the first half hour I wondered if Mikey Madison could ever earn an Oscar nomination with her clothes ON. And then...she certainly does. Very impressive.

I had Demi Moore as my Best Actress favorite, but no longer. Moore and Margaret Qualley split screen time in "The Substance", and I felt Qualley was also excellent; Moore and Qualley could have switched lead and supporting for Oscar consideration. By contrast, Madison was not only in nearly every scene of "Anora", but almost every shot...and I didn't tire of her, despite the (too long) 2:20 run time. She IS that movie.

I really would have preferred they cut about 200 f-bombs from "Anora". Some belonged, but hey: Show some scriptwriting skill.

Rarely has a broken nose been so funny for so long.

Great job by the director Sean Baker with all the subtitles. Too many films expect viewers to have Berlitz tapes on the your Audible list.

I really disliked Baker's "The Florida Project", though it made me eternally grateful for never having a kid.

If you see "Anora" in a movie theater and hear a viewer scream, he's a tow-truck driver.

Had Madison reared back and smacked the holy hell out of her Game Boy-addict Russian playboy who's 21 going on 12, the entire audience would have stood and applauded.

After seeing the original "Frankenstein" at a classics screening a few years ago, the older man behind me said, "You wanna create a monster? Make your kids rich while they're young."

How do you say "Hell hath no fury...." in Russian?

[3dender]

Anora the big winner (Picture, Director, Actress, Script, Editing) followed by Brutalist (actor, cinematography, score).

A Complete Unknown and The Substance shut out.

Wicked, Conclave and Emilia pick up some marginal hardware.

[Dicktar2023]

I'm sad about Moore, but MM is worthy.

Anora is a better movie than Conclave, so I'm happy about that split. Five Oscars is ridiculous, but there is a truly great movie in Anora. If only Baker had edited it with the discipline that he showed with Tangerines.

It had not occurred to me until he was accepting his Oscar for Best Editing tonight that the director of Anora was also the editor.

Boy...that scans.

[Dicktar2023]

Also...

-I'm a Conan fan, but that was lame.

-Brody's speech must surely be one of the longest in the modern era. It sure felt that way. I'm still happy it's over.

-Emilia Perez losing foriegn language film caps off its legendary collapse. Wow.

-why was there an extended James Bond tribute?

[3dender]

Also...

-I'm a Conan fan, but that was lame.

-Brody's speech must surely be one of the longest in the modern era. It sure felt that way. I'm still happy it's over.

-Emilia Perez losing foriegn language film caps off its legendary collapse. Wow.

-why was there an extended James Bond tribute?

Brody came across as extremely self important. I kinda hate that he can now call himself a 2 time Oscar winner. Preventing that outcome should have been reason enough to give it to Timmy - that level of ego should never be rewarded.

Also no clue about the Bond tribute. I guessed at first that it might have something to do with them recently selling it to Amazon to probably destroy, but no mention of it. That was 10 minutes they could have shaved for all of our welfare.

I thought Conan was fine but wanted more of him. Seems like he didn't do almost anything for the entire 2nd half of the show.

[3dender]

I'm sad about Moore, but MM is worthy.

Anora is a better movie than Conclave, so I'm happy about that split. Five Oscars is ridiculous, but there is a truly great movie in Anora. If only Baker had edited it with the discipline that he showed with Tangerines.

It had not occurred to me until he was accepting his Oscar for Best Editing tonight that the director of Anora was also the editor.

Boy...that scans.

Was I the only one mystified at Brutalist getting a nomination for Best Editing? I feel like you should be automatically disqualified if your film surpasses the 3 hour mark.

And yes I know that the Editing category is more than just how efficient you can make your runtime. But still, a 3.5 hour film with plenty of fat to trim seems to be screaming that the editor maybe wasn't bold enough.

[Dicktar2023]

I'm sad about Moore, but MM is worthy.

Anora is a better movie than Conclave, so I'm happy about that split. Five Oscars is ridiculous, but there is a truly great movie in Anora. If only Baker had edited it with the discipline that he showed with Tangerines.

It had not occurred to me until he was accepting his Oscar for Best Editing tonight that the director of Anora was also the editor.

Boy...that scans.

Was I the only one mystified at Brutalist getting a nomination for Best Editing? I feel like you should be automatically disqualified if your film surpasses the 3 hour mark.

And yes I know that the Editing category is more than just how efficient you can make your runtime. But still, a 3.5 hour film with plenty of fat to trim seems to be screaming that the editor maybe wasn't bold enough.

This is my big problem with Anora. It's not just the runtime, it's that I kept wondering "why is this scene still going?" and "didn't we already have a scene just like this? Do we need to see them having a conversation in the van and then having the very same conversation walking down the street?"

This is why you need an editor, and now I see that Anora frankly didn't. I'm a little surprised the editors guild fell for it, but then again, we live in an age where a pitch for a two-hour movie is regularly puffed up into several seasons of a streaming show.

The same people who are preaching about how we all need to get back out to see movies don't realize that they are contributing to the decline of the art form by taking on the bloated, "more is more" artistic values of their competition. The best way to get people to return to the theaters is to return to making the kinds of movies that feel like movies. That means making films that don't take all day to watch.

[BarkCampbell]

Brody's speech is the embodiment of why people hate actors. He also waved off the orchestra when he won for The Pianist years ago and spoke way too long about the role of art in fighting all the blah blah 'isms and injustices around the world. Smug is off the charts. Definite successor to Sean Penn for president of Film Actors Guild.

[3dender]

Brody's speech is the embodiment of why people hate actors. He also waved off the orchestra when he won for The Pianist years ago and spoke way too long about the role of art in fighting all the blah blah 'isms and injustices around the world. Smug is off the charts. Definite successor to Sean Penn for president of Film Actors Guild.

On the plus side, he does come across as the type of guy who might get really bothered if upon meeting him you said something like, "Oh yeah, aren't you that acting guy who can't ever win awards unless you play a Holocaust survivor?"

[3dender]

I'm sad about Moore, but MM is worthy.

Anora is a better movie than Conclave, so I'm happy about that split. Five Oscars is ridiculous, but there is a truly great movie in Anora. If only Baker had edited it with the discipline that he showed with Tangerines.

It had not occurred to me until he was accepting his Oscar for Best Editing tonight that the director of Anora was also the editor.

Boy...that scans.

Was I the only one mystified at Brutalist getting a nomination for Best Editing? I feel like you should be automatically disqualified if your film surpasses the 3 hour mark.

And yes I know that the Editing category is more than just how efficient you can make your runtime. But still, a 3.5 hour film with plenty of fat to trim seems to be screaming that the editor maybe wasn't bold enough.

This is my big problem with Anora. It's not just the runtime, it's that I kept wondering "why is this scene still going?" and "didn't we already have a scene just like this? Do we need to see them having a conversation in the van and then having the very same conversation walking down the street?"

This is why you need an editor, and now I see that Anora frankly didn't. I'm a little surprised the editors guild fell for it, but then again, we live in an age where a pitch for a two-hour movie is regularly puffed up into several seasons of a streaming show.

The same people who are preaching about how we all need to get back out to see movies don't realize that they are contributing to the decline of the art form by taking on the bloated, "more is more" artistic values of their competition. The best way to get people to return to the theaters is to return to making the kinds of movies that feel like movies. That means making films that don't take all day to watch.

A narrative to watch on Anora... this seems unsourced for now but would certainly put his "only $6M budget" horn-tooting in a different light.

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