CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

[An Old Friend]

Yeah, the "in a nutshell" summary of why they have you 6th in their "power rankings" going forward is that they think your lineup has significantly overachieved and is due for a correction.

It’s his pitching that’s overachieving… basically everyone after Skubal.

If I go back to the preseason projection on page 21, it had AOF as (range based on starters only or total roster):

Runs - proj. 10th - 12th (now 3rd), so +7
HR - proj. 12th - 13th (now 2nd), +10
RBI - proj. 12th - 13th (now 3rd), +9
SB - proj. 5th (now 10th), -5
BA - proj. 4th - 5th (now 2nd), +2
OPS - proj. 8th (now 3rd), +5

+28 on offense

Wins - proj. 9th - 11th (now 8th), +1
QS - proj. 9th - 11th (now 1st), +8
SVs - proj. 5th - 6th (now T-11th), -4.5
Ks - proj. 7th - 10th (now 1st), +6
ERA - proj. 13th - 14th (now 8th), +5
WHIP - proj. 11th - 12th (now 3rd), +8

+23.5 in pitching

So way overachieving in runs, HRs, RBI, QS, Ks, and WHIP, and moderately overachieving in OPS and ERA.

That seems pretty good.

Yeah, you can argue whether you think their preseason take was accurate, and your roster has changed somewhat between then and now, but that initial take probably continues to influence their season long expectation for your roster.

Well... I think it's a fundamental difference in draft strategy. I'm usually targeting players rather than going by the expert / board projections and rankings. If there are a couple of guys that I'm between, I lean on skill sets / statcast data over projections, so it wasn't and isn't a surprise that they wouldn't like my roster construction.

Take a guy like Josh Naylor - I targeted him in every draft because I thought he was under ranked / under projected. I'd look at their projection and say it has nothing to do with the player and everything to do with ONLY their results from the last couple of seasons. Consider:
2022-2023: averaged 496 PA / 450 PA, 18 HR, 88 RBI, .282 AVG, .807 OPS
FP Projection: 513 AB, 20 HR, 85 RBI, .280 AVG, .806 OPS

So they projected slightly MORE playing time and LESS production with a flat batting line. They didn't put any extra weight, it doesn't appear, on 2023, but he clearly demonstrated across the board improvement and is in his prime. Why would his projection be worse than his most recent season? Why the regression? No data supported regression.

So I had him WAY higher on the board than rankings did and then really just HOPE he stays healthy. Is he going to play 157 games like he's on pace to play? Probably not... but he's also pacing at 37 HR, 125 RBI. Their projection can be way off on players like these because they only take a handful of data elements when projecting.

Just my two cents on that...

I took more chances than maybe I intended to with my pitching staff, but so far it's held up pretty well. I have less confidence there than I do with my lineup, so trying to get as many valuable innings as possible while they're good and healthy.

[An Old Friend]

Fantasy Pros generally gives the impression that they get their information based on "expert elicitation" - basically taking the inputs from many experts and combining them under the premise that an average of experts gets you closer to your best prediction. Expert elicitation is used in a wide variety of fields.

That's certainly how they generate their pre-draft ranking. And I assume that approach carries over to their numerical projections.

Makes sense - just looked at Fangraphs at Naylor's projections and all of Steamer, The Bat, The Bat X, and ZiPS had him in the same range of 18-22 HR, 69-76 RBI, OPS of .790-.840

[Quincy Varnish]

Yeah - and if you were all in on Josh Naylor and he goes on to significantly outperform those "expert" expectations, then good on ya. You outpredicted the universe of fantasy baseball "experts."

I would expect every fantasy team to have a few players who exceed expert expectations, a few who fail to meet expectations, and a lot that end up pretty close to expectations.

You have an inordinate number right now who are exceeding expectations, while I have an inordinate number (in particular my most important) who are failing to meet expectations.

Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Houck, Erick Fedde & Keaton Winn are all top-100 overall. I think Fedde is the only one he even drafted.

[An Old Friend]

Yeah - and if you were all in on Josh Naylor and he goes on to significantly outperform those "expert" expectations, then good on ya. You outpredicted the universe of fantasy baseball "experts."

I would expect every fantasy team to have a few players who exceed expert expectations, a few who fail to meet expectations, and a lot that end up pretty close to expectations.

You have an inordinate number right now who are exceeding expectations, while I have an inordinate number (in particular my most important) who are failing to meet expectations.

Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Houck, Erick Fedde & Keaton Winn are all top-100 overall. I think Fedde is the only one he even drafted.

Pretty solid identification of guys who could perform / be useful...

FAB Dollars:
Keaton Winn - $6, replaced Jared Triolo
Reynaldo Lopez - $11, replaced Thairo Estrada
Tanner Houck - $7, replaced Jhony Brito

Added Houck after his first start
Added Lopez after his second start
Added Winn after his fifth start - haven't gotten all of that value, but perhaps the league was sleeping on him?

I think I had Fedde quite a bit higher than the rankings... recall I was beating that drum for the Cardinals to add him early in the offseason!

[Quincy Varnish]

Yeah - and if you were all in on Josh Naylor and he goes on to significantly outperform those "expert" expectations, then good on ya. You outpredicted the universe of fantasy baseball "experts."

I would expect every fantasy team to have a few players who exceed expert expectations, a few who fail to meet expectations, and a lot that end up pretty close to expectations.

You have an inordinate number right now who are exceeding expectations, while I have an inordinate number (in particular my most important) who are failing to meet expectations.

Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Houck, Erick Fedde & Keaton Winn are all top-100 overall. I think Fedde is the only one he even drafted.

Pretty solid identification of guys who could perform / be useful...

FAB Dollars:
Keaton Winn - $6, replaced Jared Triolo
Reynaldo Lopez - $11, replaced Thairo Estrada
Tanner Houck - $7, replaced Jhony Brito

Added Houck after his first start
Added Lopez after his second start
Added Winn after his fifth start - haven't gotten all of that value, but perhaps the league was sleeping on him?

I think I had Fedde quite a bit higher than the rankings... recall I was beating that drum for the Cardinals to add him early in the offseason!

Ya, no argument. You picked them well (and maybe got a little lucky)… but I think it’s fair to say your pitching is outperforming expectations more so than your offense, which Matt cannot seem to accept.

[Quincy Varnish]

Y’all better look out

I’m getting Blake Perkins

[Quincy Varnish]

Well, FP's power rankings are for the rest of the season. I can give you their projections for your roster, but it will take some time.

It has Josh H. Smith as .242 BA/.717 OPS/26 R/5 HR/22 RBI/3 SB going forward.
It has Riley Greene as .267 BA/.781 OPS/64 R/15 HR/53 RBI/6 SB going forward.

I want to hear more about the proprietary MATT-VORP system. How does it value Jose Berrios (10 MATT-VORP) as nearly interchangeable with Logan O’Hoppe (9 MATT-VORP)? Are these numbers based on pre-season projections?

[An Old Friend]

Well, FP's power rankings are for the rest of the season. I can give you their projections for your roster, but it will take some time.

It has Josh H. Smith as .242 BA/.717 OPS/26 R/5 HR/22 RBI/3 SB going forward.
It has Riley Greene as .267 BA/.781 OPS/64 R/15 HR/53 RBI/6 SB going forward.

I want to hear more about the proprietary MATT-VORP system. How does it value Jose Berrios (10 MATT-VORP) as nearly interchangeable with Logan O’Hoppe (9 MATT-VORP)? Are these numbers based on pre-season projections?

I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

Your climb in the standings is making me uncomfortable. Stay away.

[Quincy Varnish]

Well, FP's power rankings are for the rest of the season. I can give you their projections for your roster, but it will take some time.

It has Josh H. Smith as .242 BA/.717 OPS/26 R/5 HR/22 RBI/3 SB going forward.
It has Riley Greene as .267 BA/.781 OPS/64 R/15 HR/53 RBI/6 SB going forward.

I want to hear more about the proprietary MATT-VORP system. How does it value Jose Berrios (10 MATT-VORP) as nearly interchangeable with Logan O’Hoppe (9 MATT-VORP)? Are these numbers based on pre-season projections?

I think Riley Greene is well on his way to exceeding expectations...

Your climb in the standings is making me uncomfortable. Stay away.

Well… my quest for innings has been temporarily interrupted. That’s about the only news you could find comforting

[Quincy Varnish]

New strategery - stream whatever pitcher shows up to face the Cardinals

Last two nights combined - 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, 1 W, 1 QS

[An Old Friend]

New strategery - stream whatever pitcher shows up to face the Cardinals

Last two nights combined - 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, 1 W, 1 QS

Not an awful idea.

Today's dilemma.

Mikolas vs Bryce

What do I do???

Run em both out there and hope for a low scorer. Since we don't net W-L's the worry one cancels the other out not much of a concern.

But Mikolas has truly sucked. Maybe Hernandez's insight that he was tipping pitches will lead to corrective action. WTF is Bryce, been good but WTF is he?

Cards are overdue for a Win. Mikolas overdue for a good start. Brewers are due for a let down game and same for Bryce. The Cards look like Dead Men Walking. They have nothing but Quit in Em. They don't do well against bums, has beens, never will be's, rooks, leftys. Bryce might be one of that category.

Decision Time:

Put injured pitcher in Mikolas spot and roll with Bryce.

Good chance this will get the Cards a win. Can Thank Me later.

You can bench someone and just leave the spot open.

Just peeped your roster… man you have a lot of guys who have been complete a s s. Xander / Julio / Dansby / Springer / Abreu. Yuck

[Quincy Varnish]

New strategery - stream whatever pitcher shows up to face the Cardinals

Last two nights combined - 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, 1 W, 1 QS

Not an awful idea.

Today's dilemma.

Mikolas vs Bryce

What do I do???

Run em both out there and hope for a low scorer. Since we don't net W-L's the worry one cancels the other out not much of a concern.

But Mikolas has truly sucked. Maybe Hernandez's insight that he was tipping pitches will lead to corrective action. WTF is Bryce, been good but WTF is he?

Cards are overdue for a Win. Mikolas overdue for a good start. Brewers are due for a let down game and same for Bryce. The Cards look like Dead Men Walking. They have nothing but Quit in Em. They don't do well against bums, has beens, never will be's, rooks, leftys. Bryce might be one of that category.

Decision Time:

Put injured pitcher in Mikolas spot and roll with Bryce.

Good chance this will get the Cards a win. Can Thank Me later.

You have several players that should simply be dumped - Mikolas is probably one of them. He’s a nominal fantasy pitcher even when he’s ‘right’ b/c of his low K/9 - he makes it worse by throwing a lot of innings. There is an innings limit, and you want to be filling it up with better innings. If you have some gut feeling about Mikolas today (due for a win?) let him start, but… there are better fantasy pitchers on waivers.

And for the love of god - trim some of the other useless (bleep) from your roster… you could at least drop the utterly worthless LeMahieu and free up an IL slot. You have some very good players that do not deserve to be surrounded by such caca.

[Quincy Varnish]

New strategery - stream whatever pitcher shows up to face the Cardinals

Last two nights combined - 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, 1 W, 1 QS

I have Jose Soriano (4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and almost 9 K/9 for the season) for that purpose tomorrow - but that will of course be the one game this year when the Cardinals score like 8 ER in the first two innings.

I seem to have had an inordinate number of games vs. weak opponents (White Sox, A's, Tigers, Marlins, Cardinals, etc.) where at least average-ish SPs have been left out there to give up 6, 7, 8 ER in like three innings or less.

Even Lodolo was one pitch (the 2-out grand slam to Chapman in the 1st inning) away from having another outstanding outing yesterday, but instead he ends up with 6.00 ERA for the game.

I would have held on to Soriano a little longer if he hadn’t blown up v. the Pirates… he’s a decent streaming option in our league, esp in favorable matchups.

Hehe… you know that only happened w/ Chapman because you dropped him.

Sorry about your average-ish pitchers (I thought they were all better than Jared Jones?)

[Quincy Varnish]

I would have held on to Soriano a little longer if he hadn’t blown up v. the Pirates… he’s a decent streaming option in our league, esp in favorable matchups.

Hehe… you know that only happened w/ Chapman because you dropped him.

Sorry about your average-ish pitchers (I thought they were all better than Jared Jones?)

Never said that - I said I would keep Valdez, Peralta, Lodolo, and probably Berrios over Jones.

“LOLOLOLOL - I will take Peralta, Valdez (post trade), Lodolo, Berrios, etc. over Jones - by a lot.”

Who did you mean by “etc.”?

[Quincy Varnish]

I would have held on to Soriano a little longer if he hadn’t blown up v. the Pirates… he’s a decent streaming option in our league, esp in favorable matchups.

Hehe… you know that only happened w/ Chapman because you dropped him.

Sorry about your average-ish pitchers (I thought they were all better than Jared Jones?)

Never said that - I said I would keep Valdez, Peralta, Lodolo, and probably Berrios over Jones.

“LOLOLOLOL - I will take Peralta, Valdez (post trade), Lodolo, Berrios, etc. over Jones - by a lot.”

Who did you mean by “etc.”?

Your entire argument hinges on an "etc."?

I mean I do, hopefully, have Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez returning from the IL at some point.

Peralta, Valdez, Lodolo, Berrios, Kelly, and Rodriguez should be solid enough for a Top 6, with Hader, Fairbanks, and MacArthur as RPs, and one swing spot.

Yep - they’re all better than Jared Jones! Take it from the guy with the worst ERA in the league (by a lot)

All in good fun, Matt… I’m sure they will all be doing what they’re supposed to do, someday.

[Quincy Varnish]

Yep - they’re all better than Jared Jones! Take it from the guy with the worst ERA in the league (by a lot)

All in good fun, Matt… I’m sure they will all be doing what they’re supposed to do, someday.

Maybe even Cabrera who, when I traded for him had a 2.95 FIP vs. a 6.05 ERA and almost 14 K/9, but then immediately ended up in the IL with Kelly and Rodriguez when I got him.

Cabrera has an ERA over 7

Something tells me you think he was supposed to have an ERA around 2.95? Maybe we’re getting to the crux of your problem… hehe