CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

[Quincy Varnish]

My team has more depth than yours. I did not waste high draft picks on closers, but currently I’m ahead of you in saves by farting around with guys who are 1) filling in for injured closers or 2) new on the job, with little security. I’m getting sick of that [shirt]. A pitcher like Hader is probably going to get his act together and start accumulating saves, so he would have appeal to me - the roster spots I’m using for temporary fixes could be used to address other arising issues. Theoretically, I could trade you Yates AND Foley (both of whom could hold their jobs) and get back Hader (who is GUARANTEED to hold his job).

By the way, this hypothetical trade (Yates and Foley for Hader + throw in to balance rosters), is exactly the kind of "sell it as a potential win-win trade which likely becomes a win-lose trade" that I was talking about.

You sell me on taking Yates and Foley because they are, maybe, better in the short term. If they both lose their saves opportunities in short order, you have Hader, who is indeed guaranteed to hold his job and eventually rack up saves, and I have two RPs who are worth very little and I can't move them on to get back the value I gave up in Hader. You win, I lose.

If, by sheer luck, both Yates and Foley hold on to their saves opportunities, maybe I end up with more saves from the two of them than Hader. I win, you lose.

We only win-win if (1) I get marginally more saves out of Yates and Foley than you get out of Hader, to make up for the fact that I'm tying up an extra roster spot in two RPs instead of one and (2) you find a way to use the extra roster spot to add other value. That's why I say that a "win-win" is an unlikely scenario.

I want to point out that I respect your approach to this. You're approaching it a bit like a stock market day trader - get an asset, get something out of it in the short term, then flip it for something else. I fully see where it COULD work, if you consistently make move that are a net "win" for you, getting more in value than you give up.

It’s going to work.

I also fully respect your approach, because it’s well considered… but it’s not wise, in this format. I think you’ll still finish well. I’m offering you sound advice, which is against my competitive instincts - but it appears you must live and learn.

Again, I fully agree that it can work. But if it does work, it will not be because you executed a lot of actual "win-win" trades. It will be because you posed a lot of possible "win-win" trade scenarios, and got people to accept them, but they turn out to be a "win" for you, but a "loss" for someone else.

You mean someone usually comes out ahead? That’s how it goes… not sound reasoning to avoid trades altogether.

It's simply not possible to make a semi-infinite number of "win-win" trades, because since there are a fixed number of fantasy points to be won, eventually most trades have to work out over the long run to be "win-lose" to some degree or another.

The other analogy is you are playing aggressive, high variance poker vs. me playing more sound, patient, fundamental A-B-C poker. Your aggressive, high variance approach, over many hands, if done well, will probably next more profits than sound, patient, fundamental A-B-C poker. But, over the short term, can blow up dramatically (hence, high variance).

That isn’t what I’ve been doing. No doubt, I’ve been aggressive… but primarily I’ve been trading to optimize specific roster slots, and shedding high-ceiling players for certainty. Most of the players I’ve acquired (Lindor, Steer, Walker, Santander) were my original draft targets. There is very little risk of anything “blowing up” when I’m only squeezing out uncertainty and raising my floor. Losing my 1st round pick, Strider - that was blowing up.

[Quincy Varnish]

Again, I fully agree that it can work. But if it does work, it will not be because you executed a lot of actual "win-win" trades. It will be because you posed a lot of possible "win-win" trade scenarios, and got people to accept them, but they turn out to be a "win" for you, but a "loss" for someone else.

You mean someone usually comes out ahead? That’s how it goes… not sound reasoning to avoid trades altogether.

I have no intention of categorically "avoiding trades altogether." I'm just going to avoid making trades out of any sense of desperation because the guys I was banking on have gotten off to slow starts for one month out of six.

That isn’t what I’ve been doing. No doubt, I’ve been aggressive… but primarily I’ve been trading to optimize specific roster slots, and shedding high-ceiling players for certainty. Most of the players I’ve acquired (Lindor, Steer, Walker, Santander) were my original draft targets. There is very little risk of anything “blowing up” when I’m only squeezing out uncertainty and raising my floor. Losing my 1st round pick, Strider - that was blowing up.

Anything can blow up - one of your trade targets could underperform significantly for a month like Acuna, Seager, Torres, etc. have done for me in April. And the "high-ceiling" players you traded away to get them could continue to achieve at their ceiling.

If your guys - Lindor, Steer, etc. - tank for a month, are you going to sell them off as "distressed assets", or are you going to ride it out and expect them to turn it around at some point?

I traded Steer for Lindor, who had already been tanking for a month… one could say he WAS a distressed asset. That trade happened b/c I wanted more value out of the SS slot. I actually didn’t want give up Steer… but if you want to trace the lineage, I got Steer for Holliday/McMahon, then flipped Steer for Lindor and a closer. The combination of high-end players (barring injury) I would have in Strider, Riley, Lindor & Yamamoto would not have been possible to attain in our draft format w/o a trade.

I think you are right to trade "uncertainty" for "certainty," as much as any player is "certain."

Going down your theoretical path, I could try to trade O'Neill, my most notable "overachiever", for pitching. But this being the Cards Talk Invitational, no one is going to be the guy who traded for O'Neill.

True, but you have other possibilities.

[Quincy Varnish]

Eh, not so much. Henderson is playing well, but I drafted him in the 2nd round to be a core part of my team anyway. Then I don't have a full time player with even an .800+ OPS except Gurriel (.820).

Even if I thought I was "selling high" on Gurriel (and he's not much over expected right now), I'm not getting a difference-maker SP for him. Again, my offense is generically underperforming by a sizeable bit.

His pre-rank was 177, and current rank is 41. I’m pretty sure he was ranked top-10, two weeks ago. That is much better than expected. I’m not sure many are basing their decisions on ranking in this league, but in some public leagues… it would have been a mistake NOT to trade him. It also looks like you have too many bats, and not enough pitching, regardless of quality.

Anyway, maybe your “wait-and-see” approach will work… and I’ve never suggested you make ‘desperate’ trades. Nothing I’ve done has been desperate either… I’m only repositioning value into slots that I want hammered down.

[Quincy Varnish]

His pre-rank was 177, and current rank is 41. I’m pretty sure he was ranked top-10, two weeks ago. That is much better than expected. I’m not sure many are basing their decisions on ranking in this league, but in some public leagues… it would have been a mistake NOT to trade him. It also looks like you have too many bats, and not enough pitching, regardless of quality.

By the valuations I have, it looks like a "fair" trade that might be accepted would be Gurriel for Pepiot or Edward Cabrera, although in each case Gurriel is, in absolute terms, more valuable. Bryce Miller is also suggested, but unlikely to be accepted.

Those suggestions do not mean anything. The motive behind a trade must be to satisfy the needs of both parties.

I think you might also be underestimating the potential interest in TO. He dropped below his expected draft position, but that was before he did all this… and though some will want to avoid the risk, he still has fans.

[An Old Friend]

His pre-rank was 177, and current rank is 41. I’m pretty sure he was ranked top-10, two weeks ago. That is much better than expected. I’m not sure many are basing their decisions on ranking in this league, but in some public leagues… it would have been a mistake NOT to trade him. It also looks like you have too many bats, and not enough pitching, regardless of quality.

By the valuations I have, it looks like a "fair" trade that might be accepted would be Gurriel for Pepiot or Edward Cabrera, although in each case Gurriel is, in absolute terms, more valuable. Bryce Miller is also suggested, but unlikely to be accepted.

Those suggestions do not mean anything. The motive behind a trade must be to satisfy the needs of both parties.

I think you might also be underestimating the potential interest in TO. He dropped below his expected draft position, but that was before he did all this… and though some will want to avoid the risk, he still has fans.

Pitching should become more expensive to acquire as the season goes on because of attrition and the limited number of arms that can make a difference

[Quincy Varnish]

His pre-rank was 177, and current rank is 41. I’m pretty sure he was ranked top-10, two weeks ago. That is much better than expected. I’m not sure many are basing their decisions on ranking in this league, but in some public leagues… it would have been a mistake NOT to trade him. It also looks like you have too many bats, and not enough pitching, regardless of quality.

By the valuations I have, it looks like a "fair" trade that might be accepted would be Gurriel for Pepiot or Edward Cabrera, although in each case Gurriel is, in absolute terms, more valuable. Bryce Miller is also suggested, but unlikely to be accepted.

Those suggestions do not mean anything. The motive behind a trade must be to satisfy the needs of both parties.

I think you might also be underestimating the potential interest in TO. He dropped below his expected draft position, but that was before he did all this… and though some will want to avoid the risk, he still has fans.

Pitching should become more expensive to acquire as the season goes on because of attrition and the limited number of arms that can make a difference

Hmmm… maybe. The performers become harder to a acquire, but managers are also more apt to part with underachievers as the season progresses.

[Quincy Varnish]

I will say this about pitching in our league - I expect the range of ERA to condense a lot over the rest of the season. Right now the range is about 3.00 to 4.80, but by the end of the season, if everyone keeps competing, I would expect it to be more like 3.70 to 4.20. My current 4.04 is good for 4 pts., and will probably be good for about 4 pts. at the end, but I probably only need to get to 3.94 or so to get to 7 or 8 pts.

Shooting for the median, eh?

Yeah, I think around 3.90 could be a fair expectation, but it could land anywhere… I’d guess it will be over 4.00. Median ERA in competitive leagues looks like it was around 3.90 in 2023, but that was up from ~3.50 in 2022.

This league is much more difficult to forecast b/c of the size & roster slots. We have 5 general ‘P’ slots that were intended for RP… but, as expected, there aren’t 75 relief pitchers worth rostering - so many are using those slots for spare SP. Plus there is the expanded innings limit, which is bound to push it higher.

[Quincy Varnish]

I will say this about pitching in our league - I expect the range of ERA to condense a lot over the rest of the season. Right now the range is about 3.00 to 4.80, but by the end of the season, if everyone keeps competing, I would expect it to be more like 3.70 to 4.20. My current 4.04 is good for 4 pts., and will probably be good for about 4 pts. at the end, but I probably only need to get to 3.94 or so to get to 7 or 8 pts.

Shooting for the median, eh?

Yeah, I think around 3.90 could be a fair expectation, but it could land anywhere… I’d guess it will be over 4.00. Median ERA in competitive leagues looks like it was around 3.90 in 2023, but that was up from ~3.50 in 2022.

This league is much more difficult to forecast b/c of the size & roster slots. We have 5 general ‘P’ slots that were intended for RP… but, as expected, there aren’t 75 relief pitchers worth rostering - so many are using those slots for spare SP. Plus there is the expanded innings limit, which is bound to push it higher.

Yep - in some cases, being just above the median as opposed to just below the the median is going to be really valuable, and will probably be the difference in who wins or loses the league.

If the ERAs come out in a bell curve, you might get them like:

3.70
3.78
3.85
3.90
3.92
3.93
3.94

3.95 <-- median

3.96
3.97
3.98
4.00
4.05
4.12
4.20

So the relatively little difference between 3.98 (5 pts.) and 3.92 (11 pts.) will be significant. Probably be that way in BA, OPS, and WHIP as well.

At least that is what I'm figuring on.

Sure, but striving for the median in any category is nearly punting the cat - if that is your philosophy, you are breaking an age old rule in fantasy - never punt a category.

[Quincy Varnish]

Following the Quincy-Matt debate. More than half the fun of fantasy baseball is the camaraderie, chat and good-natured ribbing.

I've got one suggestion for next season--Remove the delay on standard waiver claims. Let me try to explain-

1). When a player is dropped by another team, he can be on waivers for, say, three days, and players can bid on him as they do now.
but
2). When a player passes that 3-day period, he should be available for immediate claim and addition to one's roster.

This is how Yahoo public leagues used to work, by default. I think they moved to the FAB system (like we use) about 5 years ago. I didn’t like it at first… but I now believe it levels the playing field. When all FAs are available to the first manager to claim them, it makes quickness a factor - meaning a player will go to whoever makes it their computer/phone the fastest. To me, this gives an unfair advantage to whoever has the most free time dedicated to monitoring who is in a closer’s role, who is losing it, etc. I prefer the FAB system because it gives everyone an equal opportunity to claim the same player, and adds an element of strategy in how you bid/manage your budget.

I have been playing fantasy baseball for about 10 seasons now. My weakness is drafting. But my strength is day-to-day roster management and taking advantage of streaks and matchups. The waiver system currently existing in our league makes it very difficult for people like myself because I have to try and anticipate three days forward and, often, matchups change in that time period.

No, you do not have to wait three days to claim a player. Players who have not been recently dropped are available to claim, and those claims are processed overnight. The only time there is a longer waiting period is when a team recently dropped that player.

It is a long season and I am going nowhere. I love baseball and enjoy fantasy. I'm too competitive to give up. I will continue to stay in the league, even with out adjustments, as long as it is a free league. But it would affect a stay-or-go decision if it became a pay league.

I’m glad to hear you’ll stick with it. I’ve already offered some unsolicited advice… it might be a good idea to deal from your strengths to help your weaknesses. If you do not make adjustments, you have basically quit - please do not do that.

This is a tough league, especially because the FA pool is so thin. If you’re accustomed to making adjustments to your team via waivers, and do not draft well - it gets tougher. Working up trades is really the only way to address major deficiencies, if you have them.

As if you asked for it, my opinion on strategy. I try to be patient. I tend to wait for players to come off IL. I tend to wait out big slumps before I trade someone. As far as categories are concerned, burning a category is a fatal error. you can't compete for a title only scoring 1 or 2 points in any category. It is best to be above average in all of them with 2-3 strong categories. The fun is always in trying to get there.

Agreed on all points.

[Quincy Varnish]

The combined underperformance of my top bats (Acuna, Seager, Henderson, Torres, Reynolds, Suzuki, and Pasquantino) is becoming pretty epic.

They are hitting .251 with a .743 OPS, 111 runs, 23 HR, 84 RBI, and 22 SB.

Based on Yahoo's projections they were expected to hit about .281 with a .855 OPS, 112 runs, 33 HR, 95 RBI, and 20 SB through 689 combined ABs.

They are pretty much spot on in runs and SBs, but way behind everywhere else.

Yahoo does not make 30-day projections, to my knowledge. If they did, it would be virtually useless data… especially when you have players like Reynolds & Torres, who will take their sweet time to meet yearly expectations.

[Quincy Varnish]

Thanks for clarifying the # of days. More than once, I have made a claim in the morning and it has not been there the next day. It is a little frustrating. It is possible that my frustrations are with Yahoo. I have become more accustomed to FanTrax, which has many more tools, but may have a fee base that doesn't make this league work. It may take me a season to become more familiar with Yahoo.

What are the fees? I’ve been using Yahoo for over 20 years… tried a bunch of others, but IMO Yahoo was still better. I haven’t tried FanTrax… what are the available tools? What does it have that Yahoo lacks?

I don't quit. You don't need to worry about that. You and I may differ somewhat on how strong my current strengths are at the the present. My biggest weakness is power. So I'm willing to trade from my strengths, saves, steals but the return has to be in solid, reliable power that can be expected to carry through the full season.

You have one or two more “big name” closers than you need to rank high in the SV category, especially when Sewald returns. Your offense is lacking R, HR, RBI & OPS. You need to trade one of those closers for a decent bat… but do not expect unrealistic returns (like Steer). It is unlikely anyone will trade you a player that will ‘carry’ you in 3-4 categories for a closer that only helps in one.

[Quincy Varnish]

The combined underperformance of my top bats (Acuna, Seager, Henderson, Torres, Reynolds, Suzuki, and Pasquantino) is becoming pretty epic.

They are hitting .251 with a .743 OPS, 111 runs, 23 HR, 84 RBI, and 22 SB.

Based on Yahoo's projections they were expected to hit about .281 with a .855 OPS, 112 runs, 33 HR, 95 RBI, and 20 SB through 689 combined ABs.

They are pretty much spot on in runs and SBs, but way behind everywhere else.

Yahoo does not make 30-day projections, to my knowledge. If they did, it would be virtually useless data… especially when you have players like Reynolds & Torres, who will take their sweet time to meet yearly expectations.

I was prorating based on their updated season projection.

Yes, I figured. Reynolds & Torres are doing what they usually do… suck, for extended periods of time. You can’t expect them to play up to prorated season projections in monthly installments.

[An Old Friend]

The combined underperformance of my top bats (Acuna, Seager, Henderson, Torres, Reynolds, Suzuki, and Pasquantino) is becoming pretty epic.

They are hitting .251 with a .743 OPS, 111 runs, 23 HR, 84 RBI, and 22 SB.

Based on Yahoo's projections they were expected to hit about .281 with a .855 OPS, 112 runs, 33 HR, 95 RBI, and 20 SB through 689 combined ABs.

They are pretty much spot on in runs and SBs, but way behind everywhere else.

Yahoo does not make 30-day projections, to my knowledge. If they did, it would be virtually useless data… especially when you have players like Reynolds & Torres, who will take their sweet time to meet yearly expectations.

I was prorating based on their updated season projection.

Yes, I figured. Reynolds & Torres are doing what they usually do… suck, for extended periods of time. You can’t expect them to play up to prorated season projections in monthly installments.

I don't know what Torres' projection is but he looks like complete [ash] right now. His .218 average is actually higher than his xBA of .203. His batted ball data sucks and he's striking out a bunch.

As for Reynolds... isn't this just who he generally is?

[Quincy Varnish]

I was prorating based on their updated season projection.

Yes, I figured. Reynolds & Torres are doing what they usually do… suck, for extended periods of time. You can’t expect them to play up to prorated season projections in monthly installments.

I don't know what Torres' projection is but he looks like complete [ash] right now. His .218 average is actually higher than his xBA of .203. His batted ball data sucks and he's striking out a bunch.

As for Reynolds... isn't this just who he generally is?

Pretty much w/ Reynolds.

Torres has been even more erratic over the years, but his last two seasons have been very good for a 2B, ~25 HR ~75 RBI ~.770 OPS… but right now, it looks like he could be reliving his 2021, which was basically useless. Thing is, he’s had moments like this in ‘22-23, which is why he regularly ends up on waivers in shallow leagues.

That’s my point… anyone that’s had the misfortune of having these dudes on their team would not be surprised by their performance to date.

It’s a rollercoaster I don’t want to ride… and why I end up trading them high, b/c you never know when it’s coming off the tracks.

[An Old Friend]

I was prorating based on their updated season projection.

Yes, I figured. Reynolds & Torres are doing what they usually do… suck, for extended periods of time. You can’t expect them to play up to prorated season projections in monthly installments.

I don't know what Torres' projection is but he looks like complete [ash] right now. His .218 average is actually higher than his xBA of .203. His batted ball data sucks and he's striking out a bunch.

As for Reynolds... isn't this just who he generally is?

Pretty much w/ Reynolds.

Torres has been even more erratic over the years, but his last two seasons have been very good for a 2B, ~25 HR ~75 RBI ~.770 OPS… but right now, it looks like he could be reliving his 2021, which was basically useless. Thing is, he’s had moments like this in ‘22-23, which is why he regularly ends up on waivers in shallow leagues.

That’s my point… anyone that’s had the misfortune of having these dudes on their team would not be surprised by their performance to date.

It’s a rollercoaster I don’t want to ride… and why I end up trading them high, b/c you never know when it’s coming off the tracks.

Correa back for me today without a rehab assignment - interested to see how he looks. I'm feeling pretty dang good about a lot of my draft so far.

[Quincy Varnish]

Correa back for me today without a rehab assignment - interested to see how he looks. I'm feeling pretty dang good about a lot of my draft so far.

I’m feeling pretty good about having your 11th round pick, for nothing.