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What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:24 pm
by Basil Shabazz
1. Would you entertain a Burly extension?
2. If so, how does he compare to Tyler Soderstrom?

Tyler Soderstrom just got a 7-year $86m extension with an AAV of $12.3m. He has bonus provisions and an 8th-year club option that could add another $45m to the deal. Soderstrom is 3 years younger, had one more year of team control before the extension, and plays much better defense.

Is Burly 3/4 of the player Soderstrom is? If so, would a 5-year $50m extension with a one-year club option and incentives totalling another $25m get Burly interested? Is that too much to invest in an Alec Burleson?

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:29 pm
by craviduce
there's a 3 year age difference I think?

Burly wouldn't get the length of contract. Maybe a 5 year contract is my thinking...which could get him a slightly higher AAV....5/15 for a 75million contract? Maybe a bigger organization could get him more?

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:32 pm
by Basil Shabazz
craviduce wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:29 pm there's a 3 year age difference I think?

Burly wouldn't get the length of contract. Maybe a 5 year contract is my thinking...which could get him a slightly higher AAV....5/15 for a 75million contract? Maybe a bigger organization could get him more?
Yeah, I mentioned the 3-year age difference. If he is getting $15m AAV, I will probably opt out, and I will let arbitration run its course with him. At best he is probably a 20 HR, 80 RBI, 2 WAR player. Good to have, but I am not sure I'd go that high for it when I can still have it the next few years at arbitration numbers.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:37 pm
by craviduce
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:32 pm
craviduce wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:29 pm there's a 3 year age difference I think?

Burly wouldn't get the length of contract. Maybe a 5 year contract is my thinking...which could get him a slightly higher AAV....5/15 for a 75million contract? Maybe a bigger organization could get him more?
Yeah, I mentioned the 3-year age difference. If he is getting $15m AAV, I will probably opt out, and I will let arbitration run its course with him. At best he is probably a 20 HR, 80 RBI, 2 WAR player. Good to have, but I am not sure I'd go that high for it when I can still have it the next few years at arbitration numbers.
Sorry...I'm not taking low salary Arb years into account....clubs like to round numbers as they go....4, 8, 12? Is that what his Arb under an extension would look like? They have to increase him to get him to sign the extension.....24million for Arb, then 36million for 2 FA years? That's 5y/12AAV...60million total? Is that more in line?

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:38 pm
by renostl
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:24 pm 1. Would you entertain a Burly extension?
2. If so, how does he compare to Tyler Soderstrom?

Tyler Soderstrom just got a 7-year $86m extension with an AAV of $12.3m. He has bonus provisions and an 8th-year club option that could add another $45m to the deal. Soderstrom is 3 years younger, had one more year of team control before the extension, and plays much better defense.

Is Burly 3/4 of the player Soderstrom is? If so, would a 5-year $50m extension with a one-year club option and incentives totalling another $25m get Burly interested? Is that too much to invest in an Alec Burleson?
Where do you think that he projects playing?
Do you think he can be a 25 HR guy?

Tyler did hit 60% of his HR's in the River Cats stadium, so they might be the
same there. Ball flies there and in Reno.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:43 pm
by Basil Shabazz
renostl wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:38 pm
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:24 pm 1. Would you entertain a Burly extension?
2. If so, how does he compare to Tyler Soderstrom?

Tyler Soderstrom just got a 7-year $86m extension with an AAV of $12.3m. He has bonus provisions and an 8th-year club option that could add another $45m to the deal. Soderstrom is 3 years younger, had one more year of team control before the extension, and plays much better defense.

Is Burly 3/4 of the player Soderstrom is? If so, would a 5-year $50m extension with a one-year club option and incentives totalling another $25m get Burly interested? Is that too much to invest in an Alec Burleson?
Where do you think that he projects playing?
Do you think he can be a 25 HR guy?

Tyler did hit 60% of his HR's in the River Cats stadium, so they might be the
same there. Ball flies there and in Reno.
I think he plays either 1B, LF, or RF. He plays none of them very well. I'd say he is probably an average 1B and negative corner OF. I think 25 HR would be a career year for Burly.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:45 pm
by rockondlouie
No

Too soon

Just now ARB eligible

Not a FA until 2029

Hit better in 2025 but career .235 .272 .335 .606 vs LHP

No reason to rush, let's see how he handles being a F-T 1st baseman and how he hits vs LHP in 2026.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:48 pm
by rockondlouie
craviduce wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:29 pm there's a 3 year age difference I think?

Burly wouldn't get the length of contract. Maybe a 5 year contract is my thinking...which could get him a slightly higher AAV....5/15 for a 75million contract? Maybe a bigger organization could get him more?
:wink:

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 14:54 pm
by Mort Gage
He had a nice year at the plate. Still a 2 WAR player at a position where serious contenders have mashers. They could ride out the next couple years with him at 1B and hopefully by then have developed or acquired a star hitter at that slot.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 15:06 pm
by mattmitchl44
If they were serious about extending him, I'd offer 4 yrs. guaranteed + 1 or 2 team option years.

The 4 guaranteed yrs. take him through his age 30 season, with team options for age 31 and age 32. And he's nowhere near Soderstrom. Soderstrom was 3.4 fWAR player at age 23, Burleson was a 2.1 fWAR player at age 26.

I'd be like, 4 yrs./$30-$35 million, plus 1-2 team options at $14-$16 million each.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 15:08 pm
by 2ninr
That's an expensive tool. No. Unless he suddenly discovers consistent power. He may not be a Cardinal next year anyway. This isnt Mos Cardinals anymore. If Bloom had a good offer for him he gone. We have to start thinking bigger.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 15:11 pm
by renostl
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:43 pm
renostl wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:38 pm
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:24 pm 1. Would you entertain a Burly extension?
2. If so, how does he compare to Tyler Soderstrom?

Tyler Soderstrom just got a 7-year $86m extension with an AAV of $12.3m. He has bonus provisions and an 8th-year club option that could add another $45m to the deal. Soderstrom is 3 years younger, had one more year of team control before the extension, and plays much better defense.

Is Burly 3/4 of the player Soderstrom is? If so, would a 5-year $50m extension with a one-year club option and incentives totalling another $25m get Burly interested? Is that too much to invest in an Alec Burleson?
Where do you think that he projects playing?
Do you think he can be a 25 HR guy?

Tyler did hit 60% of his HR's in the River Cats stadium, so they might be the
same there. Ball flies there and in Reno.
I think he plays either 1B, LF, or RF. He plays none of them very well. I'd say he is probably an average 1B and negative corner OF. I think 25 HR would be a career year for Burly.
That's sort of the concerns imo.

He's the guy until something better happens and if he
doesn't get that SLG up a little it keeps him with that job description
of place holder. There's 25 in there, imo. Not sure that I'd gamble on it
and could do it after next season.
It kind of allows for increased clarity with Gorman and Walker.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 16:22 pm
by zuck698
2ninr wrote: 30 Dec 2025 15:08 pm That's an expensive tool. No. Unless he suddenly discovers consistent power. He may not be a Cardinal next year anyway. This isnt Mos Cardinals anymore. If Bloom had a good offer for him he gone. We have to start thinking bigger.
You just ruined little Shady's Christmas! Agreed on thinking bigger. He is a 2WAR player max IMO. Hope I am wrong and Shady is right with his "Next Joey Votto" thinking. Highly doubt I am wrong though. 8)

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 16:39 pm
by craviduce
mattmitchl44 wrote: 30 Dec 2025 15:06 pm If they were serious about extending him, I'd offer 4 yrs. guaranteed + 1 or 2 team option years.

The 4 guaranteed yrs. take him through his age 30 season, with team options for age 31 and age 32. And he's nowhere near Soderstrom. Soderstrom was 3.4 fWAR player at age 23, Burleson was a 2.1 fWAR player at age 26.

I'd be like, 4 yrs./$30-$35 million, plus 1-2 team options at $14-$16 million each.
I was way off, MattMitch. Contracts aren't my forte. At least I'm learning.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 16:43 pm
by renostl
zuck698 wrote: 30 Dec 2025 16:22 pm
2ninr wrote: 30 Dec 2025 15:08 pm That's an expensive tool. No. Unless he suddenly discovers consistent power. He may not be a Cardinal next year anyway. This isnt Mos Cardinals anymore. If Bloom had a good offer for him he gone. We have to start thinking bigger.
You just ruined little Shady's Christmas! Agreed on thinking bigger. He is a 2WAR player max IMO. Hope I am wrong and Shady is right with his "Next Joey Votto" thinking. Highly doubt I am wrong though. 8)
As a DH/1B profile it takes a bit
to get to 3 WAR. Probably near 30 HR's with his profile.

Re: What does a Burly extension look like?

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 16:49 pm
by RunSup
Basil Shabazz wrote: 30 Dec 2025 14:24 pm 1. Would you entertain a Burly extension?
2. If so, how does he compare to Tyler Soderstrom?

Tyler Soderstrom just got a 7-year $86m extension with an AAV of $12.3m. He has bonus provisions and an 8th-year club option that could add another $45m to the deal. Soderstrom is 3 years younger, had one more year of team control before the extension, and plays much better defense.

Is Burly 3/4 of the player Soderstrom is? If so, would a 5-year $50m extension with a one-year club option and incentives totalling another $25m get Burly interested? Is that too much to invest in an Alec Burleson?
Ivan Herrera is a better comp to Soderstrom than Burleson... Once they finally admit he is a LF/1B with really good bat. And RH, no less.

I'd extend Donovan before Burly. Both are still trade bait for me.

Also, you extend Burly and Shady will be insufferable. You asked for it.