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Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 13:56 pm
by ClassicO
They would have taken Marcelo Mayer at #18 instead of the Cards' selection of McGreevy, which is debatable. The surprise was Baez, whom they had the Yankees redraft at #20.

20. Yankees — OF Joshua Baez
Actual Pick: SS Trey Sweeney
Original Drafting Team: Cardinals (2.54)
Draft Rank: No. 31
Best BA Rank: 2026 Cardinals No. 4 prospect
Baez was a boom-or-bust prospect in the 2021 class who was both exceptionally young for the class and exceptionally toolsy. No one doubted his ability to impact the baseball, and he also had one of the most impressive throwing arms, but there were significant questions about his pure hitting ability. Those questions pushed him to the second round where the Cardinals took a shot on his upside potential for $2.25 million.

Prior to the 2025 season, it was looking like a lost cause for Baez, but he made adjustments that allowed him to tap into his power more frequently and turn in a career year. He hit .287/.384/.500 with 20 home runs between High-A and Double-A and cut his strikeout rate significantly, from 35.5% in 2024 to 20.6% in 2025. He now looks like a potential 30-homer hitter with above-average everyday upside.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:03 pm
by MIDMOBIRDTWO
An interesting prospect now.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:11 pm
by rockondlouie
Good stuff, thx for sharing CO!

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:16 pm
by zbasspro
Pick looks great in hindsight, although a year ago, not so much.

I'd trade McGreevy for Mayer in a heartbeat.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:20 pm
by ClassicO
zbasspro wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:16 pm Pick looks great in hindsight, although a year ago, not so much.

I'd trade McGreevy for Mayer in a heartbeat.


You're probably right on second thought. He struggled at the big level last fall but he's 23 and a great prospect.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:24 pm
by C-Unit
For now, we will be on the edge of our seats watching how follow-up season goes.

He showed a consistent ~20.5% strikeout rate at both levels A+/AA, a significant drop from his previous minor league career. And it's encouraging to see the .100 point split between his Avg. and OBP.

He looks to me like he has the potential to be a George Springer type of player. A tall right/centerfielder who can hit power with good plate discipline.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm
by Red7
I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 14:34 pm
by Basil Shabazz
Lofty comp for Baez, but when I watch clips and read about him, I see some Jose Canseco comps.

One can dream!

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 29 Dec 2025 23:03 pm
by 3dender
Basil Shabazz wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:34 pm Lofty comp for Baez, but when I watch clips and read about him, I see some Jose Canseco comps.

One can dream!
I can see the resemblance with the physique and the unique power/speed combo... that'd sure be something.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 05:33 am
by 2ninr
Red7 wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?
There's a lengthy review of him on TCN right now.


https://x.com/B_Walton/status/200563248 ... untdown%2F

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 11:50 am
by okcardfan
2ninr wrote: 30 Dec 2025 05:33 am
Red7 wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?
There's a lengthy review of him on TCN right now.


https://x.com/B_Walton/status/200563248 ... untdown%2F
Paywall. Can you summarize?

There was an article last summer in Baseball America which was going to analyze why a Joshua Baez was improving so much, but it had a paywall too.

Some of the credit may go to the new Bloom coaches, etc , but the bulk of it has to go to the player himself. Now we have to wait and see if the changes are still there, or if Baez reverts to old bad habits and thinking.

I did subscribe to MiLB TV and watched many of Springfield's games. Baez is one smooth athlete and hits some really deep HRs, like 400+ feet bombs. Also takes walks, doesn't strike out much over an even 20%. Fingers crossed.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 12:02 pm
by ClassicO
Red7 wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?
Article from BA on how he improved:

"On July 30, 2024, the Cardinals placed outfielder Joshua Baez on the Development List. Up to that point, Baez’s career had been marred by injuries and underwhelming production. Once rated as the Cardinals’ No. 7 prospect following his 2021 second-round selection, he had since fallen off the list and looked like a player desperately in need of a reinvention.

At that point, he was hitting .225/.306/.388 with a 37.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate across 71 games for High-A Peoria.

That’s when Baez made a career-altering change.

Baez used his four weeks on the Development List to his advantage, altering his swing and getting more upright in his setup. The changes worked. Upon returning to play, Baez identified balls and strikes with greater proficiency and was also more consistently on time with the barrel.

Though it was only a 15-game sample upon his return, Baez looked like a different player. He slashed .340/.459/.500 while cutting his strikeout rate to 27.9% and upping his walk rate to 13.1%. But three hot weeks to finish a season didn’t erase the memory of what had come before. As such, he entered 2025 unranked on the Cardinals’ Top 30 list for the first time.

Little did we know that this marked the beginning of a career transformation.

Baez entered the spring revitalized, and fresh off a healthy offseason, he impressed in spring training. He returned to High-A Peoria, but this time something was different. Over the first month of the season, Baez showed he could handle the treacherous April chill of the Midwest League. His reduced 23.8% strikeout rate was a sharp contrast to his career 34.4% mark entering the season.

Then, in May, things really took off. Baez hit .373/.466/.573 over 19 games for High-A Peoria and earned a promotion to Double-A Springfield on May 28. With the jump in level, Baez didn’t miss a beat, hitting .278/.394/.582 over his first month with Springfield and keeping his strikeout rate at 27.3%. In 36 games since, Baez’s strikeout rate has improved even more, dropping to 20.1%—a number that seemed unfathomable just 12 months earlier.

Under the hood, the data backs up Baez’s vast improvements. He’s making significantly more contact, making better swing decisions and hitting the ball harder with greater frequency than ever before.

Season Level Swing% Z-Whiff% Miss% Chase% 90%EV HardHit% xwOBA
2025 AA 46.30% 20.60% 27.50% 22.10% 107.2 47.10% 0.347
2024 A+ 51.20% 28.10% 37.40% 28.50% 105.5 44.70% .290
2023 A 47.60% 37% 43.20% 29% 107.4 40.70% 0.284

Baez has now more than passed the threshold of contact and approach needed to find success. Now back up to No. 9 in the Cardinals’ system, his vast improvement has altered the course of his career, and his production this season clearly shows he’s better utilizing his impressive combination of power and speed.

Because he faces Rule 5 eligibility this offseason, the 22-year-old has an excellent chance of being added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. A big league debut next summer isn’t out of the question if he sustains his improved plate skills.

Once written off as a bust, Baez has used a strong 2025 season to blossom into one of the minor leagues’ biggest helium prospects."

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 12:25 pm
by 2ninr
okcardfan wrote: 30 Dec 2025 11:50 am
2ninr wrote: 30 Dec 2025 05:33 am
Red7 wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?
There's a lengthy review of him on TCN right now.


https://x.com/B_Walton/status/200563248 ... untdown%2F
Paywall. Can you summarize?

There was an article last summer in Baseball America which was going to analyze why a Joshua Baez was improving so much, but it had a paywall too.

Some of the credit may go to the new Bloom coaches, etc , but the bulk of it has to go to the player himself. Now we have to wait and see if the changes are still there, or if Baez reverts to old bad habits and thinking.

I did subscribe to MiLB TV and watched many of Springfield's games. Baez is one smooth athlete and hits some really deep HRs, like 400+ feet bombs. Also takes walks, doesn't strike out much over an even 20%. Fingers crossed.
There was plenty of technical stuff concerning his swing change. But they emphasized him re-dedicating himself to baseball as well.

Edit: you should be able to go to TCN free site and there's a thread with the information.Cardinals top 50 countdown

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 30 Dec 2025 15:13 pm
by Ronnie Dobbs
I can't believe he's still only 22 years old. It feels like he's been around forever. I know I'd written him off. Good for him for the hard work it took to get to where he is now.

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 31 Dec 2025 22:20 pm
by Red7
ClassicO wrote: 30 Dec 2025 12:02 pm
Red7 wrote: 29 Dec 2025 14:26 pm I’d be interested in the who, what, and how in Baez’s growth last year? Was it someone already in the organization? Was it a result of Bloom’s changes? Did Baez finally listen to someone? Maybe whoever got through to him should be put in charge of Gorman and Walker. Finally, the key thing is will this progress continue or has Baez peaked?
Article from BA on how he improved:

"On July 30, 2024, the Cardinals placed outfielder Joshua Baez on the Development List. Up to that point, Baez’s career had been marred by injuries and underwhelming production. Once rated as the Cardinals’ No. 7 prospect following his 2021 second-round selection, he had since fallen off the list and looked like a player desperately in need of a reinvention.

At that point, he was hitting .225/.306/.388 with a 37.3% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate across 71 games for High-A Peoria.

That’s when Baez made a career-altering change.

Baez used his four weeks on the Development List to his advantage, altering his swing and getting more upright in his setup. The changes worked. Upon returning to play, Baez identified balls and strikes with greater proficiency and was also more consistently on time with the barrel.

Though it was only a 15-game sample upon his return, Baez looked like a different player. He slashed .340/.459/.500 while cutting his strikeout rate to 27.9% and upping his walk rate to 13.1%. But three hot weeks to finish a season didn’t erase the memory of what had come before. As such, he entered 2025 unranked on the Cardinals’ Top 30 list for the first time.

Little did we know that this marked the beginning of a career transformation.

Baez entered the spring revitalized, and fresh off a healthy offseason, he impressed in spring training. He returned to High-A Peoria, but this time something was different. Over the first month of the season, Baez showed he could handle the treacherous April chill of the Midwest League. His reduced 23.8% strikeout rate was a sharp contrast to his career 34.4% mark entering the season.

Then, in May, things really took off. Baez hit .373/.466/.573 over 19 games for High-A Peoria and earned a promotion to Double-A Springfield on May 28. With the jump in level, Baez didn’t miss a beat, hitting .278/.394/.582 over his first month with Springfield and keeping his strikeout rate at 27.3%. In 36 games since, Baez’s strikeout rate has improved even more, dropping to 20.1%—a number that seemed unfathomable just 12 months earlier.

Under the hood, the data backs up Baez’s vast improvements. He’s making significantly more contact, making better swing decisions and hitting the ball harder with greater frequency than ever before.

Season Level Swing% Z-Whiff% Miss% Chase% 90%EV HardHit% xwOBA
2025 AA 46.30% 20.60% 27.50% 22.10% 107.2 47.10% 0.347
2024 A+ 51.20% 28.10% 37.40% 28.50% 105.5 44.70% .290
2023 A 47.60% 37% 43.20% 29% 107.4 40.70% 0.284

Baez has now more than passed the threshold of contact and approach needed to find success. Now back up to No. 9 in the Cardinals’ system, his vast improvement has altered the course of his career, and his production this season clearly shows he’s better utilizing his impressive combination of power and speed.

Because he faces Rule 5 eligibility this offseason, the 22-year-old has an excellent chance of being added to the Cardinals’ 40-man roster. A big league debut next summer isn’t out of the question if he sustains his improved plate skills.

Once written off as a bust, Baez has used a strong 2025 season to blossom into one of the minor leagues’ biggest helium prospects."
Lies. All lies. We all know altering a player’s swing ruins them!

Re: Baseball America 2021 redraft - Josh Baez

Posted: 01 Jan 2026 10:47 am
by Ronnie Dobbs
Red7 wrote: 31 Dec 2025 22:20 pmLies. All lies. We all know altering a player’s swing ruins them!
I know, right? Why didn't he just go back to doing what made him successful in highschool?