BTV

[Talkin' Baseball]

I love Baseball Trade Values and I use it for reference all the time. It can be valuable as a guide, but it is only a guide. As in all endeavors in life, common sense must aslo be applied. It has a couple glaring weak spots. It has a glaring weak spot in regard to minor leaguers and prospects. It isn't that they don't evaluate them well, they just don't update them very often (like, twice a year for most). At this age, and in this developmental phase, things can change drastically, and rapidly. An example, Brycen Mautz. Up until this season he had struggled quite a bit. His BTV valuation has been 1.6M all season. He had a great year and has been named the Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Year, but his valuation hasn't deviated all year. Has his trade value increased? Of course it has. These variations are true of multiple prospects in every organization, but their valuations will not be updated until January, or so. So if you are evaluating a trade of prospects in, or out, use some common sense. The values might not line up exactly.

The other big deficiency can come with big contracts, or contracts that are underwater. Yes, you can throw a players age, position, WAR, and salary into an algorithm and come up with a number, but it doesn't always reflect the value of the player to the team. Their production can be so valuable that a team wouldn't give him up, or you would be glad to take him despite his low valuation. An example of this presently is Bryce Harper. His BTV valuation is 1.1M. Would the Phillies really consider moving Harper to the Cardinals for Ian Bedell who has a valuation of 1.3? Of course not! Not even close. People make all these crazy proposals because they can get the numbers to match, or refuse them because they don't.

So, use it, have fun with it, but have some common sense. Ask yourself what a team really needs and if this is really something both sides would consider. Make allowances for the deficiencies known in the system. It's not infallible.