STLtoday.com

The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

I trust that he will stick to players that match the profiles
of what he wants.

A portion of why lap top GM's do it are to add some legitimacy
to their own suggestions. jmo, It was a worse conversation without a third party POV.

When dealing with prospects having
some information is better than no information.

renostl wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 16:42 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

I trust that he will stick to players that match the profiles
of what he wants.

A portion of why lap top GM's do it are to add some legitimacy
to their own suggestions. jmo, It was a worse conversation without a third party POV.

When dealing with prospects having
some information is better than no information.

To win trades one side needs more insight, vision, future seeing, luck than the other. Let’s think really deep about this, if ALL trades are these “even value” swaps eventually there are no winners just mediocrity. I know spending big money on FA is differentiator, but fleecing the other side in trades should be the goal. The other 29 teams are the competition.

If all teams now have very similar data about players, unlike the days of Walt Jocketty with the Cardinals when we had the analysis advantage, how are we supposed to swindle other teams? No one in their right mind will agree to a trade that isn’t “fair” and fills the gaps you need. There is nothing wrong with trading from a position of strength with another team with a different position of strength that fills both teams’ needs. Please tell me what I’m missing.

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 17:07 pm

renostl wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 16:42 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

I trust that he will stick to players that match the profiles
of what he wants.

A portion of why lap top GM's do it are to add some legitimacy
to their own suggestions. jmo, It was a worse conversation without a third party POV.

When dealing with prospects having
some information is better than no information.

To win trades one side needs more insight, vision, future seeing, luck than the other. Let’s think really deep about this, if ALL trades are these “even value” swaps eventually there are no winners just mediocrity. I know spending big money on FA is differentiator, but fleecing the other side in trades should be the goal. The other 29 teams are the competition.

No, that’s not the goal

It would be interesting to see how Matt Arnold Brewers Exec of Year two years in a row , approaches his moves.

One thing that even he said last year . You make some good ones and others that don't work out . Pat Murphy, his manager, said Matt has hit on some of our trades and missed on others but he sure seems to 'hit ' more than 'miss' and why the team continues to improve.

Will be the same with Bloom ...There will be trades that don't turn out too well and hopefully others where he does very well . He will be successful if he makes a few more of the good ones over the bad ones.

While analytics come into play and all the other metrics, there is always the 'feel' for another player... his heart, his desire, etc. that is tough to measure thru math. Sometimes using ones 'gut' on those intangibles are part of the equation.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:07 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 17:07 pm

renostl wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 16:42 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

I trust that he will stick to players that match the profiles
of what he wants.

A portion of why lap top GM's do it are to add some legitimacy
to their own suggestions. jmo, It was a worse conversation without a third party POV.

When dealing with prospects having
some information is better than no information.

To win trades one side needs more insight, vision, future seeing, luck than the other. Let’s think really deep about this, if ALL trades are these “even value” swaps eventually there are no winners just mediocrity. I know spending big money on FA is differentiator, but fleecing the other side in trades should be the goal. The other 29 teams are the competition.

No, that’s not the goal

Exactly. You trade to fill needs. You don’t need to screw the other guy to make a good deal. In fact, if you fleece the other guy but you don’t make your team appreciably better, have you really accomplished anything?

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:22 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

Sure both side could win. But if a team gives up very little of future value and receives great future value over time. That team should have more chance of being a successful team. If the opposite occurs then that team has a very good chance of being an unsuccessful team. In general how does the forum think teams stock better talent than the other 29 teams? Whether it be drafting, trading, or signing FA. The bottom line goal is to acquire and have better talent than the 29 competitor teams. If I can exchange less future output from my org and return great future output I am depleting my competition and expanding my own. This mindset that “fair” value is the objective is a much less competitive goal than what I outline. Now you may want the trading partner to think they’re getting at least “equal” value that’s where having the better drafting staff, better scouting/trading staff and deep pockets owners for FA ……produces best talent for org.
Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottonfeld
Brock for Brolio
McGee for Sykes
Smith for Templeton

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 22:19 pm

ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:22 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

Sure both side could win. But if a team gives up very little of future value and receives great future value over time. That team should have more chance of being a successful team. If the opposite occurs then that team has a very good chance of being an unsuccessful team. In general how does the forum think teams stock better talent than the other 29 teams? Whether it be drafting, trading, or signing FA. The bottom line goal is to acquire and have better talent than the 29 competitor teams. If I can exchange less future output from my org and return great future output I am depleting my competition and expanding my own. This mindset that “fair” value is the objective is a much less competitive goal than what I outline. Now you may want the trading partner to think they’re getting at least “equal” value that’s where having the better drafting staff, better scouting/trading staff and deep pockets owners for FA ……produces best talent for org.
Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottonfeld
Brock for Brolio
McGee for Sykes
Smith for Templeton

Unfortunately, the Cards talent evaluation fell off for the last several years. But, doesn't a trade a few veterans for higher future value accomplish what you suggest? All the trades you provided were great baseball trades at the time. But, they were not current value for future value trades. They were current value for current value trades where the other team made a blunder of huge proportions. Those appear to be rarer these days with expanded analytics. So to win, doesn't it have to be a team gives up future prospects with higher analytic value to try to win now when receiving a veteran player with lower analytic value? The extreme example in baseball history was Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. The Tigers received a lot of immediate value for that trade. The Braves received a huge amount of future value.

The Cards problem the last decade as they have been in the squishy middle. They never gave up a lot of prospects to get the 1-2 players in 2019 and 2022 when they might have won had they done so. They never previously traded away veteran players like they are now to stock the system with talent. Ultimately, I think the Cards can stock better talen by using the last couple of years to have big drafts and making trades that accumulate as many BV 55/55+ young talents as possible. Then they need to convert that into a winning team either by developing them into regular/star players or trading them to fill in the holes. The last 10 years, the Cards did none of that. Hence, we now have 4 55/55+ grade prospects total. If the Cards can increase that to 7-8 of those via trades and this years draft, their chances are higher, albeit, no guarantees.

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 17:07 pm

renostl wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 16:42 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

I trust that he will stick to players that match the profiles
of what he wants.

A portion of why lap top GM's do it are to add some legitimacy
to their own suggestions. jmo, It was a worse conversation without a third party POV.

When dealing with prospects having
some information is better than no information.

To win trades one side needs more insight, vision, future seeing, luck than the other. Let’s think really deep about this, if ALL trades are these “even value” swaps eventually there are no winners just mediocrity. I know spending big money on FA is differentiator, but fleecing the other side in trades should be the goal. The other 29 teams are the competition.

I don't know what "contrarian" point you think you are making.

BTV is simply a good, neutral, third party site that gives us idea of trades that might be close enough in value for both teams to find them acceptable.

Even if BTV scores a trade exactly 50-50, one team involved in the trade may, by their own proprietary evaluation, have is scored 60-40 in their favor, and the other team may have it scored 60-40 in THEIR favor.

Further, the real issue is when will that value be realized? The Cardinals are trading veteran players whose value is in 2026, 2027, etc. for prospects whose value will probably be maximized in 2029, 2030, etc.

I'll add - if you expect the Cardinals to "fleece" another team in a trade, the conditions under which that is likely to happen are those where there is greater uncertainty. And there is greater uncertainty when you are trading for prospects who are farther away from playing in the majors.

If you are trading ML players for ML players, both teams have much more reliable information about the players involved and there is much less uncertainty in the deal. But that means that both teams are more likely to value the players involved correctly, and therefore neither team is likely to "fleece" the other.

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 22:19 pm

ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:22 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

Sure both side could win. But if a team gives up very little of future value and receives great future value over time. That team should have more chance of being a successful team. If the opposite occurs then that team has a very good chance of being an unsuccessful team. In general how does the forum think teams stock better talent than the other 29 teams? Whether it be drafting, trading, or signing FA. The bottom line goal is to acquire and have better talent than the 29 competitor teams. If I can exchange less future output from my org and return great future output I am depleting my competition and expanding my own. This mindset that “fair” value is the objective is a much less competitive goal than what I outline. Now you may want the trading partner to think they’re getting at least “equal” value that’s where having the better drafting staff, better scouting/trading staff and deep pockets owners for FA ……produces best talent for org.
Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottonfeld
Brock for Brolio
McGee for Sykes
Smith for Templeton

Little known fact: for the Edmonds trade, the Angels also got Adam Kennedy—a player who was integral in the Angels’ 2002 World Series Championship. And a really nice player for them for 7 years.

Being reminded of this, does this make you think less of the Edmonds’ deal?

It’s a trade. You want Edmonds? You have to give up something… Jockety was trying to build a roster. He wasn’t consumed with debasing the Angels’ GM…

lol

ecleme22 wrote: ↑15 Dec 2025 05:43 am

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 22:19 pm

ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:22 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

Sure both side could win. But if a team gives up very little of future value and receives great future value over time. That team should have more chance of being a successful team. If the opposite occurs then that team has a very good chance of being an unsuccessful team. In general how does the forum think teams stock better talent than the other 29 teams? Whether it be drafting, trading, or signing FA. The bottom line goal is to acquire and have better talent than the 29 competitor teams. If I can exchange less future output from my org and return great future output I am depleting my competition and expanding my own. This mindset that “fair” value is the objective is a much less competitive goal than what I outline. Now you may want the trading partner to think they’re getting at least “equal” value that’s where having the better drafting staff, better scouting/trading staff and deep pockets owners for FA ……produces best talent for org.
Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottonfeld
Brock for Brolio
McGee for Sykes
Smith for Templeton

Little known fact: for the Edmonds trade, the Angels also got Adam Kennedy—a player who was integral in the Angels’ 2002 World Series Championship. And a really nice player for them for 7 years.

Being reminded of this, does this make you think less of the Edmonds’ deal?

It’s a trade. You want Edmonds? You have to give up something… Jockety was trying to build a roster. He wasn’t consumed with debasing the Angels’ GM…

lol

I have not forgotten Kennedy. He was a #1 draft pick for the Cards in '97. They had high hopes for the guy, but when they obtained Fernando Vina in winter '99, and Placido Polanco was also on the team - Kennedy was expendable. He was a decent player, kind of like a lesser version of Brendan Donovan, but the return of Edmonds for him and Bottenfield was still a steal. Kennedy came back to the Cards as a FA in '06 and was not good in his first year, but much better in the second.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑15 Dec 2025 05:43 am

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 22:19 pm

ICCFIM2 wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 21:22 pm

Goldfan wrote: ↑14 Dec 2025 15:25 pm The Grand Masters of Trading Baseball Players have the elite ability to see future talent and production in a player who has gone unnoticed or fallen off the BTV Meter. It’s not in swapping comparable BTV values……..
This robotic analytics nonsense has zapped the once free flowing/entertaining game, made players robots, and is now aligning trades to fulfill some stupid spreadsheet. “All exchanges must be within 0.5 of expected BTV values”
Please let Bloom be a Free Thinker and not chained to this lunacy

On this board, BTV is at least a tool to determine if a trade proposal is reasonable. I am certain all teams have a much more refined analysis of this to determine what they perceive the value of a player is. In a situation like Donovan, can't both teams be winners? If Donovan helps a team like Seattle win a WS in the next two years, for certain they have to feel like it was a winning trade. If the Cards get two players back, lets use the current trade proposal being widely circulated, Montes and Cijntje and Montes becomes a 750-850 OPS hitter and Cijntje becomes a 6 year SP who pitches to a 3.5 FIP, shouldn't the Cards be doing back flips over that trade? I would. The Cards most certainly would be obtaining an outsized WAR obtained over WAR traded. Seattle gets a WS title. Maybe the Cards do as well.

Sure both side could win. But if a team gives up very little of future value and receives great future value over time. That team should have more chance of being a successful team. If the opposite occurs then that team has a very good chance of being an unsuccessful team. In general how does the forum think teams stock better talent than the other 29 teams? Whether it be drafting, trading, or signing FA. The bottom line goal is to acquire and have better talent than the 29 competitor teams. If I can exchange less future output from my org and return great future output I am depleting my competition and expanding my own. This mindset that “fair” value is the objective is a much less competitive goal than what I outline. Now you may want the trading partner to think they’re getting at least “equal” value that’s where having the better drafting staff, better scouting/trading staff and deep pockets owners for FA ……produces best talent for org.
Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottonfeld
Brock for Brolio
McGee for Sykes
Smith for Templeton

Little known fact: for the Edmonds trade, the Angels also got Adam Kennedy—a player who was integral in the Angels’ 2002 World Series Championship. And a really nice player for them for 7 years.

Being reminded of this, does this make you think less of the Edmonds’ deal?

It’s a trade. You want Edmonds? You have to give up something… Jockety was trying to build a roster. He wasn’t consumed with debasing the Angels’ GM…

lol

Who got the better end of the deal? Cards or Angels? Jocketty could’ve kept a 18game winner and an up and coming good hit 2B…….
What was the BTV on that deal? Jocketty was getting a CF who played 55 games with 5 HR the previous year with bad attitude rep
On the flip side our MO trades Alcantara and Gallen for Ozuna
Whether it’s better scouting, intuition, gut, a feel…..being tied a some analytics formula that is void of MANY intangibles is stupid. Let’s hope Bloom isn’t stupid

ecleme22 wrote: ↑15 Dec 2025 05:43 amLittle known fact: for the Edmonds trade, the Angels also got Adam Kennedy—a player who was integral in the Angels’ 2002 World Series Championship. And a really nice player for them for 7 years.

Being reminded of this, does this make you think less of the Edmonds’ deal?

It’s a trade. You want Edmonds? You have to give up something… Jockety was trying to build a roster. He wasn’t consumed with debasing the Angels’ GM…

lol

Right. Adam Kennedy was a 1st round draft pick and top 100 prospect. He was a pretty (bleep) good piece to add in a trade for Edmonds, who was pretty much looked as a disgruntled player coming off a bad year. There was seriously a lot of bad press about how bad of a guy he was. He kind of got run out of town. Here's an older article from Vivaelbirdos about him in that time:

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/12/30 ... reputation

But yea, you have to give something to get something, and I would not describe that trade as a fleecing. Also, the Angels won a WS in 2002, with Adam Kennedy as their starting 2B. So it seems like it was win-win for both.

People might view trades that, after the dust has settled, one team clearly wins, but no one is out to "fleece" someone else. But that's more hindsight than anything else.