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Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 17:46 pm
by craviduce
The Mets are 1 of 5 teams who have to take a 10 pick penalty per the CBA for exceeding the 2nd Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2025. The Mets are in the Draft lottery at the 17th spot, just ahead of Houston and behind K.C.
The questions are : Do the Mets lose their Draft Lottery slot and move to 27th in the 2026 draft? Are the Mets allowed to participate in the Lottery and take their penalty based off the results tomorrow? IE : They could win a 1-6 spot, say #5 and then take the 10 spot penalty from there and pick 15th?
Theoretically, they could hit #1, and then pick....14th? 11th - 13th are already awarded to Rockies, Nats and Angels.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 17:53 pm
by Shady
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 17:46 pm
The Mets are 1 of 5 teams who have to take a 10 pick penalty per the CBA for exceeding the 2nd Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2025. The Mets are in the Draft lottery at the 17th spot, just ahead of Houston and behind K.C.
The questions are : Do the Mets lose their Draft Lottery slot and move to 27th in the 2026 draft? Are the Mets allowed to participate in the Lottery and take their penalty based off the results tomorrow? IE : They could win a 1-6 spot, say #5 and then take the 10 spot penalty from there and pick 15th?
Theoretically, they could hit #1, and then pick....14th? 11th - 13th are already awarded to Rockies, Nats and Angels.
I could care less about the Mets. Sheesh ! My hope is for the Cardinals to luck into a top five pick.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 17:57 pm
by craviduce
anyways.
Lottery is being held 90 minutes earlier than last year. Drive time for most.
5:30pm EST/4:30pm CST
get your Simulations out of your system before tomorrow's draft.
Link to the Sim. Play responsibly
https://www.tankathon.com/mlb
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 18:17 pm
by Whatashame
Just looking at the top 100 early draft prospects, there is one 65 grade prospect and 7 60 grade prospects. The Cardinals are currently slated as having the 8th pick in the draft before the lottery. There’s a full college baseball season ahead of us so there is some change coming BUT as of today the Cardinals are in line for a 60 grade prospect. Looking forward to the lottery tomorrow.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
by DewittDaman11
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 18:44 pm
by greyhawk
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 17:57 pm
anyways.
Lottery is being held 90 minutes earlier than last year. Drive time for most.
5:30pm EST/4:30pm CST
get your Simulations out of your system before tomorrow's draft.
Link to the Sim. Play responsibly
https://www.tankathon.com/mlb
so you're saying once the draft lottery is over we won't be inundated with 3-5 msn links per week telling us who the cardinals will pick? how soon will they start?
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 18:49 pm
by craviduce
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
oh my...Seattle won from the 17th spot last year, so Mets are a threat to bumping us down...the odds are unlikely, but again...M's in 2025, Reds in 2024. It has happened
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 18:55 pm
by zuck698
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:49 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
oh my...Seattle won from the 17th spot last year, so Mets are a threat to bumping us down...the odds are unlikely, but again...M's in 2025, Reds in 2024. It has happened
That is a B.S. ruling by MLB. Totally takes the supposed punishment away from spending too much money.They should have to move back 10 spots with even winning the lottery i.m.o.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:03 pm
by craviduce
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
and thanks, D.D.
I meant to put that with the other post.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:20 pm
by DewittDaman11
Like a lot of folks have stated, the Cards might be better served not winning the lottery this year, depending on how high of a pick they end up getting, because we theoretically will suck bad enough this year to get a higher percentage pick next year. My question is whether or not next year's draft will be stronger or weaker than this year, or is it too volatile that far out to predict?
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:39 pm
by Carp4Cy
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:20 pm
Like a lot of folks have stated, the Cards might be better served not winning the lottery this year, depending on how high of a pick they end up getting, because we theoretically will suck bad enough this year to get a higher percentage pick next year. My question is whether or not next year's draft will be stronger or weaker than this year, or is it too volatile that far out to predict?
You want the highest pick can possibly get now so you can pick the closest to MLB ready player that can contribute in our next window of opportunity.
If we pick first in 2027 and take a HS player they might not hit MLB and be very good until the early 2030s, and many of the youngsters on our current prospect list/roster might be gone by then, especially if the new CBA shortens pre FA years down to 4 like in other sports.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:52 pm
by DewittDaman11
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:03 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
and thanks, D.D.
I meant to put that with the other post.
No problem, I meant for my last post to be off this one, but my tech challenged (bleep) forgot to hit quote, lol!
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 19:57 pm
by DewittDaman11
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:39 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:20 pm
Like a lot of folks have stated, the Cards might be better served not winning the lottery this year, depending on how high of a pick they end up getting, because we theoretically will suck bad enough this year to get a higher percentage pick next year. My question is whether or not next year's draft will be stronger or weaker than this year, or is it too volatile that far out to predict?
You want the highest pick can possibly get now so you can pick the closest to MLB ready player that can contribute in our next window of opportunity.
If we pick first in 2027 and take a HS player they might not hit MLB and be very good until the early 2030s, and many of the youngsters on our current prospect list/roster might be gone by then, especially if the new CBA shortens pre FA years down to 4 like in other sports.
Maybe, but if there is a definitive Cholowoski(spelling) overall number one, or 2, of r even 3 next year, which is possible, sucking our way to last place would really help our odds on landing one of them. Doesn't really matter what we want, as it's in the hands of fate, at this point. Still fun to dream on a really high pick.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 20:07 pm
by Carp4Cy
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:57 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:39 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 19:20 pm
Like a lot of folks have stated, the Cards might be better served not winning the lottery this year, depending on how high of a pick they end up getting, because we theoretically will suck bad enough this year to get a higher percentage pick next year. My question is whether or not next year's draft will be stronger or weaker than this year, or is it too volatile that far out to predict?
You want the highest pick can possibly get now so you can pick the closest to MLB ready player that can contribute in our next window of opportunity.
If we pick first in 2027 and take a HS player they might not hit MLB and be very good until the early 2030s, and many of the youngsters on our current prospect list/roster might be gone by then, especially if the new CBA shortens pre FA years down to 4 like in other sports.
Maybe, but if there is a definitive Cholowoski(spelling) overall number one, or 2, of r even 3 next year, which is possible, sucking our way to last place would really help our odds on landing one of them. Doesn't really matter what we want, as it's in the hands of fate, at this point. Still fun to dream on a really high pick.
I like High pics too, but I actually wish mlb would Institute even more anti-tanking rules around the draft order (make it more random or add incentives to finish over .500 and trying to compete) to discourage this. I think it is likely in the next CBA as they’ve already been going this direction for several years, by disallowing the consecutive lottery wins and by adding a lottery at all instead of just picking in reverse standings.
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 20:08 pm
by renostl
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:49 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
oh my...Seattle won from the 17th spot last year, so Mets are a threat to bumping us down...the odds are unlikely, but again...M's in 2025, Reds in 2024. It has happened
Only 15 spots I believe this time with the 3 that were eliminated.
Here are the odds of each eligible team receiving the first overall pick in next summer’s draft, per MLB.com:
White Sox – 27.73%
Twins – 22.18%
Pirates – 16.81%
Orioles – 9.24%
Athletics – 6.55%
Braves – 4.54%
Rays – 3.03%
Cardinals – 2.35%
Marlins – 1.85%
Diamondbacks – 1.51%
Rangers – 1.34%
Giants – 1.01%
Royals – 0.84%
Mets – 0.67%
Astros – 0.34%
Re: Draft Lottery question: Eligibility of the NY Mets?
Posted: 08 Dec 2025 20:36 pm
by zuck698
renostl wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 20:08 pm
craviduce wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:49 pm
DewittDaman11 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2025 18:40 pm
Per mlb.com, if the Mets "win the lottery" they get to keep that spot, and their second pick moves down 10 slots.
oh my...Seattle won from the 17th spot last year, so Mets are a threat to bumping us down...the odds are unlikely, but again...M's in 2025, Reds in 2024. It has happened
Only 15 spots I believe this time with the 3 that were eliminated.
Here are the odds of each eligible team receiving the first overall pick in next summer’s draft, per MLB.com:
White Sox – 27.73%
Twins – 22.18%
Pirates – 16.81%
Orioles – 9.24%
Athletics – 6.55%
Braves – 4.54%
Rays – 3.03%
Cardinals – 2.35%
Marlins – 1.85%
Diamondbacks – 1.51%
Rangers – 1.34%
Giants – 1.01%
Royals – 0.84%
Mets – 0.67%
Astros – 0.34%
Give me $20 down on the Mets winning. That 0.67% seems a little low considering what rules are being adjusted for them accordingly.