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FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 09:04 am
by mattmitchl44
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pre-arb ... a-success/
Although a side point to the main point of the article, I draw your attention to the tables in about the middle of the article.
fWAR produced across MLB by various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~40% of total fWAR
ARB: ~30% of total fWAR
Players who reached FA: ~30% of total fWAR
Total amount of payroll across MLB tied up in various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~15% of total payroll
ARB: ~25% of total payroll
Players who reached FA: ~60% of total payroll
One way of looking at that would be: $ spent on pre-ARB players are about 5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs, and $ spent on ARB players are about 2.5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs in terms of generating fWAR.
If you were wondering why having a lot of young, talented ARB and pre-ARB players was important.
Re: FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 11:31 am
by Carp4Cy
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 09:04 am
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pre-arb ... a-success/
Although a side point to the main point of the article, I draw your attention to the tables in about the middle of the article.
fWAR produced across MLB by various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~40% of total fWAR
ARB: ~30% of total fWAR
Players who reached FA: ~30% of total fWAR
Total amount of payroll across MLB tied up in various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~15% of total payroll
ARB: ~25% of total payroll
Players who reached FA: ~60% of total payroll
One way of looking at that would be: $ spent on pre-ARB players are about 5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs, and $ spent on ARB players are about 2.5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs in terms of generating fWAR.
If you were wondering why having a lot of young, talented ARB and pre-ARB players was important.
I wonder if there will be a major shift towards paying the "pre-arb" players significantly more than the minimum wage in the new CBA, as is done in the NBA and NFL. Seems necessary to ever achieve a salary cap.
in 2023, Wemby earned 8 figures as a rookie on a scaled draftee contract and that's in addition to signing bonus.
How would the value of top prospects shift if we had to pay them at least $5-10M as soon as they reach the majors?
Re: FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 11:37 am
by C-Unit
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 11:31 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 09:04 am
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pre-arb ... a-success/
Although a side point to the main point of the article, I draw your attention to the tables in about the middle of the article.
fWAR produced across MLB by various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~40% of total fWAR
ARB: ~30% of total fWAR
Players who reached FA: ~30% of total fWAR
Total amount of payroll across MLB tied up in various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~15% of total payroll
ARB: ~25% of total payroll
Players who reached FA: ~60% of total payroll
One way of looking at that would be: $ spent on pre-ARB players are about 5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs, and $ spent on ARB players are about 2.5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs in terms of generating fWAR.
If you were wondering why having a lot of young, talented ARB and pre-ARB players was important.
I wonder if there will be a major shift towards paying the "pre-arb" players significantly more than the minimum wage in the new CBA, as is done in the NBA and NFL. Seems necessary to ever achieve a salary cap.
in 2023, Wemby earned 8 figures as a rookie on a scaled draftee contract and that's in addition to signing bonus.
How would the value of top prospects shift
if we had to pay them at least $5-10M as soon as they reach the majors?
I wonder what that would do to free agent contracts
Re: FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 11:38 am
by Carp4Cy
C-Unit wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 11:37 am
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 11:31 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑04 Dec 2025 09:04 am
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-pre-arb ... a-success/
Although a side point to the main point of the article, I draw your attention to the tables in about the middle of the article.
fWAR produced across MLB by various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~40% of total fWAR
ARB: ~30% of total fWAR
Players who reached FA: ~30% of total fWAR
Total amount of payroll across MLB tied up in various classes of players:
Pre-ARB: ~15% of total payroll
ARB: ~25% of total payroll
Players who reached FA: ~60% of total payroll
One way of looking at that would be: $ spent on pre-ARB players are about 5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs, and $ spent on ARB players are about 2.5 times more effective than $ spent on FAs in terms of generating fWAR.
If you were wondering why having a lot of young, talented ARB and pre-ARB players was important.
I wonder if there will be a major shift towards paying the "pre-arb" players significantly more than the minimum wage in the new CBA, as is done in the NBA and NFL. Seems necessary to ever achieve a salary cap.
in 2023, Wemby earned 8 figures as a rookie on a scaled draftee contract and that's in addition to signing bonus.
How would the value of top prospects shift
if we had to pay them at least $5-10M as soon as they reach the majors?
I wonder what that would do to free agent contracts
A salary cap would have the greatest effect on limiting the FA value. Depending on where the cap is set...
Re: FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 11:43 am
by Carp4Cy
NBA players also can become FAs 2 years earlier Plus they often begin their pro careers Much younger that baseball players reach MLB.
If MLB shortens the pre-FA years from 6 to 4, that would have a massive effect on strategy.
Re: FG Article on pre-ARB, ARB, and FA players
Posted: 04 Dec 2025 13:19 pm
by Hoosier59
You have fewer players making the big bucks, but they are more productive, thus their higher salaries. I don’t think the % numbers are that accurate due to there being way more pre arb. Players on teams these days.