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Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
by Carp4Cy
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 20 Nov 2025 21:46 pm
by brock118
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
Kent Bottenfield came from nowhere to win 18 but not in his second year. Thank god too we traded him for Jim Edmonds!
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 20 Nov 2025 22:19 pm
by Cardinals4Life
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:14 am
by WaltsSuccessor
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
You just stacked three if statements on top of each other. And that’s just in the rotation. Say each one has a 30% chance of happening individually. Then the odds of all happening together are 30% x 30% x 30% = 2.7%.
That’s the kind of hope Mo built rosters on this past half decade.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:26 am
by sikeston bulldog2
My next thread- will we ever see another World Series- goes down this road. As we stand, which is knee deep in kimshee, the WS is a dream.
It will take exactly as OP stated- from nowhere career years from a pitcher, reliever, and two hitters.
Who are these mystery men.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:30 am
by alw80
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 22:19 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol
Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:35 am
by sikeston bulldog2
alw80 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:30 am
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 22:19 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol
Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.
He has a point. If yanked in 5-6 innings of a game, leading, chances are the pen will give up enough runs to turn the decision into a no decision. Thus lowering the win total.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:46 am
by Talkin' Baseball
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:26 am
My next thread- will we ever see another World Series- goes down this road. As we stand, which is knee deep in kimshee, the WS is a dream.
It will take exactly as OP stated- from nowhere career years from a pitcher, reliever, and two hitters.
Who are these mystery men.
Knee deep in kimshee- that's nasty!
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 06:56 am
by ScotchMIrish
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
I suppose it's possible but McGreevey is a pitch to contact type with an upside down H/9 for his career. He fooled me because I thought he would give up a lot of runs. Perhaps because his stuff is different from what teams normally see is why he had success but I wonder as teams see him more often whether he will continue to have as much success.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 07:00 am
by nighthawk
Russ Ford, Lefty Gomez, Bill James, Red Faber... ....I'm sure there are many more.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 07:01 am
by BrockFloodMaris
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
“Career years” used to happen in the Cards all the time. Bottenfield is a good example. Tommy Herr with 100 RBIs is another. Healthy winning culture creates a space for those years to happen.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 07:26 am
by alw80
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:35 am
alw80 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:30 am
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 22:19 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol
Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.
He has a point. If yanked in 5-6 innings of a game, leading, chances are the pen will give up enough runs to turn the decision into a no decision. Thus lowering the win total.
This is how MLB handles their SPs nowadays, its not solely a Cardinals thing. What Cardinals SPs would have won 18 games the last few years if they were kept in the game to pitch 7 innings?
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 07:31 am
by sikeston bulldog2
alw80 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 07:26 am
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:35 am
alw80 wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 06:30 am
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 22:19 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 21:43 pm
It’s not likely, but what if…
-McGreevey got in a groove and goes 18-7 next year.
-Libby wins 14.
-We decide to keep Gray and he repeats last season or better record wise.
I have no idea who the rest of the rotation would be, but if they pitch at a .500 level, would this put the team at a 2003 level (85 wins)? Higher? A shot at playoffs?
It’s been a long time since thing went right at this level - when multiple existing players suddenly took steps forward at the same time. Is it still possible? Maybe if we had a TLR type to help propel things forward, it could still happen.
No shot any Cardinal wins 18 games with Marmol managing, as he pulls them at 65 pitches in the 4th inning! Lol
Yea, thats whats holding them back from having an 18 game winner.
He has a point. If yanked in 5-6 innings of a game, leading, chances are the pen will give up enough runs to turn the decision into a no decision. Thus lowering the win total.
This is how MLB handles their SPs nowadays, its not solely a Cardinals thing. What Cardinals SPs would have won 18 games the last few years if they were kept in the game to pitch 7 innings?
Good points. To answer your question, none. It takes a career year from nowhere. Been awhile.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 08:58 am
by rockondlouie
He didn't come out of nowhere but Doc Gooden had that terrific 2nd season when he won 24 games w/a 1.53 ERA.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 09:59 am
by Carp4Cy
rockondlouie wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 08:58 am
He didn't come out of nowhere but Doc Gooden had that terrific 2nd season when he won 24 games w/a 1.53 ERA.
No - he came from the absolute pinnacle of prospect rankings. Though it sure would be nice if Doyle developed even a slight resemblance to Gooden's early career.
Re: Has a second year pitcher ever come from nowhere to win 18+ ?
Posted: 21 Nov 2025 10:13 am
by rockondlouie
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 09:59 am
rockondlouie wrote: ↑21 Nov 2025 08:58 am
He didn't come out of nowhere but Doc Gooden had that terrific 2nd season when he won 24 games w/a 1.53 ERA.
No - he came from the absolute pinnacle of prospect rankings. Though it sure would be nice if Doyle developed even a slight resemblance to Gooden's early career.
That would be insanely great!