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All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Way too back and white way of looking at it.

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Especially because it seems like no one is capable of simply hitting a sac fly anymore. Growing up, a sac fly was almost automatic as far as I recall.

Don't know if it's because of how many pitchers throw with movement or sinkers or what but whatevs... hopefully this is just extra juice to implement the cap and floor.

blackinkbiz wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:30 pm

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Especially because it seems like no one is capable of simply hitting a sac fly anymore. Growing up, a sac fly was almost automatic as far as I recall.

Don't know if it's because of how many pitchers throw with movement or sinkers or what but whatevs... hopefully this is just extra juice to implement the cap and floor.

This exactly. There is no directional hitting, everyone swings for the fences. Suicide squeezes if done right are almost impossible to defend. Of course you have to have a batter that will sell out to make contact though and it amazes me how many batters in key situations contort their bodies to miss being hit. I know it hurts but in a key situation it could decide a game. Personally I think the proper play is to bunt the runner to third. Then a fly ball, infield hit, ground ball in a hole wild pitch, passed ball, error can all tie or win a game.

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Playing to score exactly one run in an inning (which is what you are doing if you are giving up an out to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd) typically only makes sense in close and late situations, if it makes sense then.

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Or....all it takes is a flyball to score.

If you played small ball to its extent, then add in timely hits and xtra bases, you could be a problem.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 05:06 am

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Playing to score exactly one run in an inning (which is what you are doing if you are giving up an out to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd) typically only makes sense in close and late situations, if it makes sense then.

Yeah - I haven’t seen the run probability chart (the likelihood of scoring a run) for the last decade. Overall run expectancy goes down going from 2nd with 0 out to 3rd with 1 out, but probability of scoring is marginally higher - https://tangotiger.net/re24.html

Feels very dependent on who is coming up. If you have high contact rate guys coming up, the efficacy of a bunt is much higher. In today’s game, I don’t think there is value gleaned from bunting there. At best you’re basically net neutral but gave away an out.

blackinkbiz wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:30 pm

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Especially because it seems like no one is capable of simply hitting a sac fly anymore. Growing up, a sac fly was almost automatic as far as I recall.

Don't know if it's because of how many pitchers throw with movement or sinkers or what but whatevs... hopefully this is just extra juice to implement the cap and floor.

I think your memory fails you

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 05:06 am

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Playing to score exactly one run in an inning (which is what you are doing if you are giving up an out to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd) typically only makes sense in close and late situations, if it makes sense then.

If you score 1 run an inning you’ll win a lot of ball games.

CCard wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 04:56 am

blackinkbiz wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:30 pm

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Especially because it seems like no one is capable of simply hitting a sac fly anymore. Growing up, a sac fly was almost automatic as far as I recall.

Don't know if it's because of how many pitchers throw with movement or sinkers or what but whatevs... hopefully this is just extra juice to implement the cap and floor.

This exactly. There is no directional hitting, everyone swings for the fences. Suicide squeezes if done right are almost impossible to defend. Of course you have to have a batter that will sell out to make contact though and it amazes me how many batters in key situations contort their bodies to miss being hit. I know it hurts but in a key situation it could decide a game. Personally I think the proper play is to bunt the runner to third. Then a fly ball, infield hit, ground ball in a hole wild pitch, passed ball, error can all tie or win a game.

But it doesn't.

Living in the past

Red7 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 09:13 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 05:06 am

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Playing to score exactly one run in an inning (which is what you are doing if you are giving up an out to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd) typically only makes sense in close and late situations, if it makes sense then.

If you score 1 run an inning you’ll win a lot of ball games.

If you only score 1 run in many of the innings where you could have scored multiple runs, you'll lose a lot of games.

Kiner-Falefa had a .184 OBP in the playoffs, following his unimpressive .298 in the regular season. I understand the bunt call.

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 06:58 am If you played small ball to its extent, then add in timely hits and xtra bases, you could be a problem.

Possibly .. that was the Brewers style ball . With their team speed, the Brewrs led the MLB in infield hits. (A lot of those high choppers, slow bouncers were beat out at 1st base. IF they got the runner on , then they had the speed steal 2nd . THeir style with limited long ball won the most games in the MLB this season . They looked decent vs the Cubs in the division series but they could not hit vs. the Dodgers starters at all .
Not many bat to ball times for the Brewrs from those high strikeout pitchers of the LAD.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 09:03 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 05:06 am

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Playing to score exactly one run in an inning (which is what you are doing if you are giving up an out to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd) typically only makes sense in close and late situations, if it makes sense then.

Yeah - I haven’t seen the run probability chart (the likelihood of scoring a run) for the last decade. Overall run expectancy goes down going from 2nd with 0 out to 3rd with 1 out, but probability of scoring is marginally higher - https://tangotiger.net/re24.html

Feels very dependent on who is coming up. If you have high contact rate guys coming up, the efficacy of a bunt is much higher. In today’s game, I don’t think there is value gleaned from bunting there. At best you’re basically net neutral but gave away an out.

Sadly, bunts are OFTEN unsuccessful, meaning you gave away on out for nothing.

Even when they are successful, your chance are scoring multiple runs are diminished and your chance of scoring one run only increases a tiny bit.
I believe that you have to be successful at bunting over 90% of the time or your chances of scoring even 1 run also diminish! I believe the Cardinal bunters fall far short of that mark.

Also, if the game is on the line, after a successful bunt the opposing team usually just chooses which of the next 2 hitters their pitcher prefers to face.

Looking at box scores, there really aren't that many flyouts which travel more than 250 feet during a game... and then when the pitcher is specifically trying to prevent a fly ball, it may be even less.

The Cardinals had 332 sacrifice fly opportunties this year (runner on 3B, less than 2 outs).
87 hits (21 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR) (26%)
75 strikeouts (23%)
39 sacrifice flies (12%)
30 walks + HBP (includes 6 IBB) (9%)
13 GDP (4%)

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 11:26 am

CCard wrote: ↑02 Nov 2025 04:56 am

blackinkbiz wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:30 pm

ZouMiz2424 wrote: ↑01 Nov 2025 23:22 pm All it takes is a walk and ground ball to escape. Statistically it lowers your chances of scoring to give away out s

Especially because it seems like no one is capable of simply hitting a sac fly anymore. Growing up, a sac fly was almost automatic as far as I recall.

Don't know if it's because of how many pitchers throw with movement or sinkers or what but whatevs... hopefully this is just extra juice to implement the cap and floor.

This exactly. There is no directional hitting, everyone swings for the fences. Suicide squeezes if done right are almost impossible to defend. Of course you have to have a batter that will sell out to make contact though and it amazes me how many batters in key situations contort their bodies to miss being hit. I know it hurts but in a key situation it could decide a game. Personally I think the proper play is to bunt the runner to third. Then a fly ball, infield hit, ground ball in a hole wild pitch, passed ball, error can all tie or win a game.

But it doesn't.

Living in the past

Prove it.