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As the Cardinals search for pitching help this winter, how do you feel about acquiring pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery? The recovery rates are good, but there is a risk.

Depends on the pitcher and the cost

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 07:59 am As the Cardinals search for pitching help this winter, how do you feel about acquiring pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery? The recovery rates are good, but there is a risk.

It's a pretty safe bet. But you usually don't get back to where you were completely until 2 years out. The first year back you are basically re-learning your arm and how to throw, control pitches etc

When i had mine i was completely physically recovered in 12 months. But i didn't feel comfortable throwing full tilt again, or feel confident in my pitches until close to 18 to 20 months

If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

For sure, Cardinals should be taking calculated risks on as many 1 year deals as possible on the pitching side to flip at the deadline for additional prospects.

lordoffatness wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 09:03 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

For sure, Cardinals should be taking calculated risks on as many 1 year deals as possible on the pitching side to flip at the deadline for additional prospects.

This is why I've been so excited about Bloom replacing Mo for a long time, we finally have a smart & hungry POBO who hopefully will find those diamonds in the rough.

In Boston he did:

-Traded Aldo Ramirez for Kyle Schwarber

-Traded Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to Philadelphia for Connor Seabold and Nick Pivetta.

-Traded Christian Vazquez to the Houston Astros for Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez

And after he left the Sox used three of his draft picks to land G. Crochet!

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

You mention shoulders- how do we feel about shoulders? Are they off-limits? I'm talking about pitchers like Nick Frasso, or Gavin Stone of the Dodgers, both of whom had shoulder surgery about a year ago. Are they interesting, or given the uncertainty of their health, not so much?

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 12:56 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

You mention shoulders- how do we feel about shoulders? Are they off-limits? I'm talking about pitchers like Nick Frasso, or Gavin Stone of the Dodgers, both of whom had shoulder surgery about a year ago. Are they interesting, or given the uncertainty of their health, not so much?

I'm scared to death about shoulders!

I know things worked out w/Carp but shoulder injuries on pitchers can end careers.

I would be way, way more leery going after pitchers w/shoulder issues than I would one coming off TJS.

TJS is now almost routine, maybe even expected.

Pitchers can rebound and velocity returns quickly, usually within one year.

Given a choice, I pass on the shoulder surgery starters, take my risk shots on starters coming off TJS.

JMO

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 12:56 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

You mention shoulders- how do we feel about shoulders? Are they off-limits? I'm talking about pitchers like Nick Frasso, or Gavin Stone of the Dodgers, both of whom had shoulder surgery about a year ago. Are they interesting, or given the uncertainty of their health, not so much?

shoulders are far more risky. they don't return to full strength at near the rate of elbows. RUN AWAY!!!

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 07:59 am As the Cardinals search for pitching help this winter, how do you feel about acquiring pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery? The recovery rates are good, but there is a risk.

In 2024, they drafted a couple of pitchers recovering from TJS. One of them had a pretty good run late in the 2025 season.

https://www.milb.com/player/andrew-dutkanych-iv-702254

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 07:59 am As the Cardinals search for pitching help this winter, how do you feel about acquiring pitchers coming off of Tommy John surgery? The recovery rates are good, but there is a risk.

Most pitchers eventually regain their pre-surgery efficiency; but some don’t. Wainwright was never the same pitcher after his, and lost several mph off his fastball. However he succeeded pitching through his curveball and command

I’ve been following this topic for many decades now ( and remember when TJ was an outstanding lefty for the White Sox). It seems that recoveries follow a certain pattern, probably depending on the degree of the damage. First, speed returns between 12-18 months. Secondly, control returns, usually after 18 months. By the 24th month, the pitcher should attain his pre-TJ speed, control, and endurance.

In short, it’s not quite a good strategy for bolstering immediate needs, but you can gamble on having a suitable pitcher after 2years.

Yeah, shoulders are much more likely to be career-ending injuries.

Alcantara, Strider, Bautista, and deGrom returned this year after TJS with results I'd call mixed. It was deGrom's second procedure.

Shane McClanahan was due back but didn't fare as well. He was limited to 3 innings in the minors, although I don't know if the reason was his cut arm or something else.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

many come back from labrum surgery (carpenter, clemens, Ohtani) extremely few come back well from rotator cuff surgery ( Pedro and ?).

This team needs to take short term fliers on guys. They are desperate for pitching.

jcgmoi wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 17:40 pm Yeah, shoulders are much more likely to be career-ending injuries.

Alcantara, Strider, Bautista, and deGrom returned this year after TJS with results I'd call mixed. It was deGrom's second procedure.

Shane McClanahan was due back but didn't fare as well. He was limited to 3 innings in the minors, although I don't know if the reason was his cut arm or something else.

McClanahan has had TJ twice. This season he was due to return but had a nerve issue in his triceps that required surgery to correct.

Clubmaker2 wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 21:14 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 08:59 am If you can get them on one/two year deals, then I have no problem rolling the dice if the pitcher was successful in MLB before the TJS.

Not the same, his was a rotator cuff/labrum, but the Cardinals rolled the dice once and it paid off in two (2) World Series championships when they brought in C. Carpenter!

I trust C. Bloom to do the homework.

many come back from labrum surgery (carpenter, clemens, Ohtani) extremely few come back well from rotator cuff surgery ( Pedro and ?).

I remember C. Kershaw, J. Verlander and B. Woodruff this season coming back successfully from RCS but the list of successful starters i indeed small.

Pitcher Shoulder Surgeries scare the c r a p out me, I'd be loathe to sign one on more than a one year, low AAV deal.