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Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 18:12 pm
by 82birds
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration.
service time indicated within ( )
Cardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
John King (4.148): $2.1MM
Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMservice time in ( )
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 18:17 pm
by RichieRichSTL
82birds wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:12 pm
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration.
service time indicated within ( )
Cardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
John King (4.148): $2.1MM
Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMservice time in ( )
Pallante didnt earn it. Gorman is a project still. Nootbaar should be traded.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 18:45 pm
by Absolut
Arbitrator is going rogue. Burly will get awarded $100m.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 18:55 pm
by icon
Noot worth more than Donovan? Okay.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 18:58 pm
by An Old Friend
82birds wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:12 pm
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration.
service time indicated within ( )
Cardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
John King (4.148): $2.1MM
Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMservice time in ( )
Had no idea who Alcala was until right now. That’s an easy non-tender
Jojo should be a top trade candidate
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 19:22 pm
by kyace
Nootbaar , JoJo and Gorman traded. Pallante non tendered
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 21:25 pm
by JohnnyMO
How is Burly worth the same as Pallante? Less than Noot? Less than Donovan? Barely outpacing Gorman? I mean - who would they rather have in the box against a tough righty???
Jokes aside, I’m serious those numbers don’t track for me.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 21:36 pm
by ramfandan
Last winter , Donovan came into his first arb year with request of $3.3 M while Cardinals offer was $2.85 M
The arbitor sided with the Cardinals ..so Donnie lost and got $450,000 less .
the two sides previously had not come together on an extension .
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 06 Oct 2025 21:55 pm
by Ozziesfan41
kyace wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 19:22 pm
Nootbaar , JoJo and Gorman traded. Pallante non tendered
Agree on all but I doubt pallante gets non tendered
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 06:34 am
by Talkin' Baseball
Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 21:55 pm
kyace wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 19:22 pm
Nootbaar , JoJo and Gorman traded. Pallante non tendered
Agree on all but I doubt pallante gets non tendered
I doubt it too. I could see John King being non-tendered.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 08:39 am
by Jatalk
82birds wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:12 pm
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration.
service time indicated within ( )
Cardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
John King (4.148): $2.1MM
Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMservice time in ( )
I’m hoping they reach agreement with Donovan instead of arbitration. Sure they won’t but he deserves better.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 08:49 am
by rockondlouie
82birds wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:12 pm
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration.
service time indicated within ( )
Cardinals (9)
Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
John King (4.148): $2.1MM
Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MMservice time in ( )
Alcala & King will be gone (IMO).
Donny likely too via trade and maybe Noot.
That leaves only around $17M in Arbs.
If they deal away S. Gray + NADO (I think WillyC stays unless some team blows C. Bloom away) and eat an est. $30-35M plus trade at least one of Donny or Noot, then we're looking at a 2026 payroll just above or below $100M.
Hopefully BDWJr gives Bloom some of that payroll savings to add SMART free agents or via trade players (re: YOUNG PLAYERS w/MLB experience) that fit the LT re-build mold.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 08:53 am
by Midrange Jay
That’s like $30 million of free agent signings! Time to see what we have and focus on player development while looking to the future.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 09:05 am
by Bomber1
icon wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:55 pm
Noot worth more than Donovan? Okay.
I guess these guys must have watched Nootbaar’s speed-swing video.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 09:20 am
by TXCardsFanX
kyace wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 19:22 pm
Nootbaar , JoJo and Gorman traded. Pallante non tendered
I think they definitely keep Gorman. I'm not a fan, but he's still cheap and they are HOPING he gets better. JoJo is still an OK value and I think they keep him too. They have to have some options in the pen.
Alcala shouldn't be kept. He was awful for us and they can find cheaper options for that production.
King was horrible in 2025. He pitched a TON and was
consistently bad. Don't let anyone speak to his 2.63 ERA post all-star game because he also had an opponent BA of 0.328 and a 1.54 WHIP in that same stretch! The guy was BAD.
Time to trade Noot, for sure. Not expecting much in return, but he's not even worth the roster spot and payroll when we can fill it with cheaper players with more potential.
We have to keep Pallante and Libby. We ain't got anyone else and can't replace them at that cost. Gotta hope Pallante pitches better.
Re: Projected arb salaries per MLBTR
Posted: 07 Oct 2025 10:45 am
by WaltsSuccessor
JohnnyMO wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 21:25 pm
How is Burly worth the same as Pallante? Less than Noot? Less than Donovan? Barely outpacing Gorman? I mean - who would they rather have in the box against a tough righty???
Jokes aside, I’m serious those numbers don’t track for me.
Arbitration is a 3 step ladder with raises at each step (usually).
Burley is going through arbitration for the first time. Made $750k this year. Noot ($2.95m this year) and Donovan ($2.85m this year) are on their second step, hence the higher projections. Service time matters more than who is the better player right now.
Got nothing on the Pallante and Gorman commentary...