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rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.
Just for fun let's assume:
-NADO
$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)
BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)
-Gray
$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll
BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)
-WillyC
$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout
BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch
But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)
So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)
With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:
$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.
(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)
Not easily why would the top free agents come to St. Louis when they could go to good teams? Cards aren’t going to be the highest bidders and even if they were it would be another Hayward situation where they go to a team that’s better for less moneyGoldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:28 amrockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.
Just for fun let's assume:
-NADO
$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)
BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)
-Gray
$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll
BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)
-WillyC
$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout
BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch
But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)
So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)
With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:
$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.
(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)
So Bloom could easily add
Bellinger 30mil
SCHwarber 30mil
Top SP
AND STILL BE UNDER 150MIL
My #1 get is Z. Gallen and would love to see C. Bellinger patrolling CF.Goldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:28 amrockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.
Just for fun let's assume:
-NADO
$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)
BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)
-Gray
$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll
BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)
-WillyC
$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout
BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch
But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)
So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)
With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:
$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.
(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)
So Bloom could easily add
Bellinger 30mil
SCHwarber 30mil
Top SP
AND STILL BE UNDER 150MIL
if you think we are spending anywhere near 150 million I've got a unicorn to sell yaGoldfan wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:28 amrockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 09:19 am Depends on how much BDWJr has to eat.
Just for fun let's assume:
-NADO
$42M left on his 2 yr deal
$-5M coming in 2026 from Rockies
$37M actually on Cardinals payroll
($6M deferred)
BDWJr eats $20M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring teams gets NADO for $22M/2 yrs $6M is deferred)
-Gray
$35M left on deal
$5M buyout
$40M actually on Cardinals payroll
BDWJr eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets Gray for $25M/1 yr + $5M buyout if they decline)
-WillyC
$36.5M left on 2yr deal
$5M buyout
BDWJr shouldn't have to eat much given Willy is still an excellent hitter and a solid 1st baseman who can also still catch
But let's say he eats $10M so C. Bloom can get a better return (acquiring team gets WillyC for $26.5M/2yrs + $5M buyout)
So BDWJr is responsible for $40M ($35M in 2026 and $5M in 2027)
With estimates for ARB cases that would leave the 2026 payroll at:
$50+M est. 2026 payroll if all the above occurs.
(Before Bloom deals anyone else (re: Donny or Noot or Burly or a catcher?) and adds thru free agency and trades for major league players)
So Bloom could easily add
Bellinger 30mil
SCHwarber 30mil
Top SP
AND STILL BE UNDER 150MIL
The first statement is silly. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect the cardinals payroll to be higher, much higher than it would be going into 2026 with the guys currently on the roster. Even if they all stay, Grays increase is more than offset by mikolas and matz $31M. Arenado actually makes a few million less next season as well. Oh, and helsley made $8M, not a ton but not nothing. With no other moves, the cardinals are shedding $40M from payroll. I know there will be some arbitration increases but that’s not going come close to offsetting $40M
You keep posting this matt knowing good and well that #1) Philly, Atlanta and Houston are MASSIVELY bigger markets w/owners willing to spend and #2) that BDWJr has and is never going to spend anywhere close to $200+M on the 26 man roster which he didn't do even when he was drawing 3.4M!mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.
Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.
It’s $75 million WITH Contreras, Arenado and Gray. Arbitration is projected around $30 million total. We could keep our current players, add a 2 x SP’s and an OF for under $175 million.
They are - and yet they had no problem dropping below $100 million as part of their rebuilding years.rockondlouie wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:32 amYou keep posting this matt knowing good and well that #1) Philly, Atlanta and Houston are MASSIVELY bigger markets w/owners willing to spend and #2) that BDWJr has and is never going to spend anywhere close to $200+M on the 26 man roster which he didn't do even when he was drawing 3.4M!mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑05 Oct 2025 11:21 am When they were rebuilding, the Phillies' payroll dropped to $95 million (2018) and now stands at $284 million; Atlanta's dropped to $86 million (2016) and now stands at $216 million; and Houston's dropped to $26 million (2013) and now stands at $220 million.
Especially if they eat $30, $40, $50 million to trade Gray, Arenado, and Contreras, I don't know why one would be surprised if they had an actual roster payroll under $100 million.
And the Cardinals having a payroll under $100M is for one reason and one reason only as I've been telling you for months:
LOW ATTENDANCE
Since BDWJr has ALWAYS tied Payroll to ATTENDANCE.