STLtoday.com

from Joe Trezza, MLB.com


With the 2025 regular season in the books and all 30 teams' records and winning percentages final, the '26 Draft order and lottery odds have begun to take shape.
The MLB Draft Lottery -- ping pong balls and all -- has become a staple of the offseason. For the fourth consecutive year, a lottery during December's Winter Meetings will be used to determine the top of the Draft order.
2026 Draft:
Top 20 College prospects | Draft Tracker
All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) -- ineligible
Since the Rockies received a lottery pick in the 2023 and '24 Drafts, they are not eligible for this year’s lottery -- teams cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. The Nationals and Angels are “payor clubs” -- teams that give rather than receive revenue sharing dollars -- and payors cannot receive a lottery pick in consecutive years.

basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

It’s a bit confusing for myself
What are odds we just stay where we are currently?

Lefley 25 wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 17:08 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

It’s a bit confusing for myself
What are odds we just stay where we are currently?

odds are slim to none we stay right where we are

Lefley 25 wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 17:08 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

It’s a bit confusing for myself
What are odds we just stay where we are currently?

Most likely the Cardinals pick 9th in the first round. A decent chance they slip to 13. But also a chance the cardinals get into the top 6.

I'll leave the math to someone else. You can go to tankathon.com and run 100 trials.

Lefley 25 wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 17:08 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

It’s a bit confusing for myself
What are odds we just stay where we are currently?

I'm not sure on the "exact" odds, but the best odds are with staying 8th, as Billybaseball pointed out the other day. And he also noted with a chuckle, that we haven't stayed where we were the last 2 lotteries (5th to 7th, and 15th to 5th). So....that's a weird/strange outcome, yeah?

We expect to move up to 1-6 or drop to 13th, based off history, but the math says we'll likely do neither.

With the odds, drafting 8th in a reported draft that's stronger than last year would be fine. And might save DeWitt some signing bonus money over 1 through 6. Hopefully, to spend elsewhere for serious needs.

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

what are the odds of picking top 4? That would've gotten us Ethan Holliday this year.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 18:27 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑29 Sep 2025 16:31 pm basically, we'll pick 13th, 8th, 9th or 1-6th....outside chance of 14th, if 3 better teams win the lottery.

what are the odds of picking top 4? That would've gotten us Ethan Holliday this year.

not good....two of the best records won the lottery last year, the Cards and Mariners...but it can be done...proof in the pudding last year.

We get #1.

kinda funny we're in the lottery again cuz we didn't have two top-6 picks in a row.
5 and 7 pretty durn close
LOL

If we get top 6 this year we’re ineligible next draft correct? I think I’d rather take my chances with #1 next draft than move from 8 to 6 this draft.

I’d be happy with #1 this year too of course