STLtoday.com

Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

Can there be a negative WAR?

So what does this mean? How does it compare to league both individually and for team.

WAR is gibberish and not sure what to make of this post.

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

That's interesting because Liberatore has only gone 5 innings once since June. Apparently WAR doesn't take that into account. One of a few flaws with WAR.

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:23 am

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

That's interesting because Liberatore has only gone 5 innings once since June. Apparently WAR doesn't take that into account. One of a few flaws with WAR.

It probably does take it into account, cause you don't know what his WAR was in June/July... it may have gone down.

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

Does Oli even teach these guys anything?

McG

More fWAR than Mikolas + Fedde

3dender wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:28 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:23 am

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

That's interesting because Liberatore has only gone 5 innings once since June. Apparently WAR doesn't take that into account. One of a few flaws with WAR.

It probably does take it into account, cause you don't know what his WAR was in June/July... it may have gone down.

Not sure where those numbers are from. Here's baseball reference

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... hing.shtml

They have Liberatore at 1.0 and #155 in MLB.

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:45 am

3dender wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:28 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:23 am

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

That's interesting because Liberatore has only gone 5 innings once since June. Apparently WAR doesn't take that into account. One of a few flaws with WAR.

It probably does take it into account, cause you don't know what his WAR was in June/July... it may have gone down.

Not sure where those numbers are from. Here's baseball reference

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... hing.shtml

They have Liberatore at 1.0 and #155 in MLB.

It's from FanGraphs, which differs considerably from Baseball-Reference with pitching. I believe FG is based more around pitcher-dependent stats like FIP, whereas B-R is based more on ERA. Not sure though.

From the interwebs:

fWAR (FanGraphs):
.
fWAR focuses on pitcher performance metrics like strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit-by-pitch, which are largely independent of the defense behind the pitcher. This approach provides a more accurate assessment of a pitcher's true talent and skill level, as it minimizes the impact of external factors like fielding.

bWAR (Baseball-Reference):
.
bWAR uses a pitcher's earned runs allowed and adjusts for the defensive quality behind them. This can lead to inconsistencies and potentially inaccurate evaluations, especially when comparing pitchers across different teams with varying defensive strengths

3dender wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 11:12 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:45 am

3dender wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:28 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 10:23 am

Baseball Savant wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 09:06 am Pitchers WAR

Sonny and a cast of misfits

IP. WAR

Sonny Gray STL 135.1 3.2
Matthew Liberatore STL 117.0. 1.8
Michael McGreevy STL 51.0 0.9
Kyle Leahy STL 66.0 0.9
Andre Pallante STL 123.2 0.7
JoJo Romero STL 42.0 0.6
Miles Mikolas STL 117.2 0.5
Matt Svanson STL 36.2 0.4
Gordon Graceffo STL 31.0 0.4
Riley O'Brien STL 32.0. 0.2

Traded players
Matz 1.2, Helsley 1.1 Maton 1.0, Fedde 0.0

That's interesting because Liberatore has only gone 5 innings once since June. Apparently WAR doesn't take that into account. One of a few flaws with WAR.

It probably does take it into account, cause you don't know what his WAR was in June/July... it may have gone down.

Not sure where those numbers are from. Here's baseball reference

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... hing.shtml

They have Liberatore at 1.0 and #155 in MLB.

It's from FanGraphs, which differs considerably from Baseball-Reference with pitching. I believe FG is based more around pitcher-dependent stats like FIP, whereas B-R is based more on ERA. Not sure though.

I see. FanGraphs has him at #55 sorting for FIP WAR. #133 sorting for RA/9 #87 50/50 split. Baseball reference has him at #155.

He is either a #2 starter, a #3 starter, a #5 starter or a AAA starter depending on which WAR is used. My head hurts just trying to figure it out. I think he has the potential to be very good if he can build his stamina and not hurt his arm.

Hartfan1 wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 11:59 am From the interwebs:

fWAR (FanGraphs):
.
fWAR focuses on pitcher performance metrics like strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit-by-pitch, which are largely independent of the defense behind the pitcher. This approach provides a more accurate assessment of a pitcher's true talent and skill level, as it minimizes the impact of external factors like fielding.

bWAR (Baseball-Reference):
.
bWAR uses a pitcher's earned runs allowed and adjusts for the defensive quality behind them. This can lead to inconsistencies and potentially inaccurate evaluations, especially when comparing pitchers across different teams with varying defensive strengths

Especially also bc B-R's defensive evaluation is considered weaker than FG.

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 15:15 pm

3dender wrote: ↑14 Aug 2025 11:12 am It's from FanGraphs, which differs considerably from Baseball-Reference with pitching. I believe FG is based more around pitcher-dependent stats like FIP, whereas B-R is based more on ERA. Not sure though.

I see. FanGraphs has him at #55 sorting for FIP WAR. #133 sorting for RA/9 #87 50/50 split. Baseball reference has him at #155.

He is either a #2 starter, a #3 starter, a #5 starter or a AAA starter depending on which WAR is used. My head hurts just trying to figure it out. I think he has the potential to be very good if he can build his stamina and not hurt his arm.

That last sentence is the key takeaway imo. Lib's a relatively special circumstance with respect to this season's starting pitchers, and getting hung up on his 2025 WAR value is missing the forest for the trees.