Page 1 of 2
Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 07:14 am
by pitchingandefense
BTV tweet on the Matz trade:
“Today the #RedSox reportedly acquired LHP Steven Matz (-$1.2M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for 1B Blaze Jordan ($1.8M).
The deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Boston.”
BTV tweet on the Helsley trade:
“Today the #Mets reportedly acquired RHP Ryan Helsley ($4.7M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for IF Jesus Baez ($8.2M) and RHPs Nate Dohm ($1.8M) and Frank Elissalt (not in system) ($10.0M total).
The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by NYM.”
So their model likes both trades for the Cards, FWIW. The Cards needed depth up and down their system, and these two trades helped that. Hopefully more to come today.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 07:21 am
by ClassicO
pitchingandefense wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:14 am
BTV tweet on the Matz trade:
“Today the #RedSox reportedly acquired LHP Steven Matz (-$1.2M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for 1B Blaze Jordan ($1.8M).
The deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Boston.”
BTV tweet on the Helsley trade:
“Today the #Mets reportedly acquired RHP Ryan Helsley ($4.7M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for IF Jesus Baez ($8.2M) and RHPs Nate Dohm ($1.8M) and Frank Elissalt (not in system) ($10.0M total).
The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by NYM.”
So their model likes both trades for the Cards, FWIW. The Cards needed depth up and down their system, and these two trades helped that. Hopefully more to come today.
Many object to the BTVs, but it seems more accurate than Law or other pundits when considering their history.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 07:31 am
by MrPostman01
Our posters went goo goo gaga over the Ozuna trade not valuing what was shipped out from the farm.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 20:25 pm
by pitchingandefense
BTV tweet on the Maton trade:
“Today the #Rangers reportedly acquired RHP Phil Maton ($2.0M surplus trade value) from the #STLCards in exchange for RHP Skylar Hales ($1.6M), LHP Mason Molina (not yet in system) and international bonus pool money.
The deal is tentatively accepted by our model, pending Molina”
So in total the BTV model has the Cardinals ending up with about $8M in surplus value at the end of the deadline. They have gained 6 prospects, who will join with the 2025 draftees to help replenish the thin minor league ranks. It was a good business deadline that hopefully helps continue to shape the future under Bloom.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
by jbrach
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 21:02 pm
by pitchingandefense
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Definitely some nonsense to it, but their model has been pretty accurate in assessing trades as far as attaching monetary value to each name. At the end of the day, a .500 team turned three relievers with expiring contracts into 6 minor league prospects.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 21:09 pm
by Braund241
pitchingandefense wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 21:02 pm
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Definitely some nonsense to it, but their model has been pretty accurate in assessing trades as far as attaching monetary value to each name. At the end of the day, a .500 team turned three relievers with expiring contracts into 6 minor league prospects.
A .500 team who will continue to be a .500 team. You go Mo!
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 21:18 pm
by An Old Friend
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Then why are you even here debating the merits of anything?
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 22:12 pm
by hugeCardfan
At least there is numerical application to the analysis. You have to question the valuation of the loaners we traded; which totally depends on how they perform the next couple months and in the postseason. They could be much more valuable to the acquiring team than the surplus trade value assigned. That actually matters little to the Cardinals. We had no place to go or future plans for the departing "soldiers".
I am not disappointed with our augment to the farm and I though I would be..... So there is that.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 22:14 pm
by Alex Reyes Cy Young
pitchingandefense wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 21:02 pm
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Definitely some nonsense to it, but their model has been pretty accurate in assessing trades as far as attaching monetary value to each name. At the end of the day, a .500 team turned three relievers with expiring contracts into 6 minor league prospects.
Well put.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 23:34 pm
by cardstatman
BTV likes the trades for the Cardinals.
2.0 Out: Maton 2.0
1.6+ In: Hales 1.6 + Molina ??? + 250K intl signing bonus allowance
-1.2 Out: Matz -1.2
1.8 In: Jordan 1.8
4.7 Out: Helsley 4.7
10.0+ In: Baez 8.2 + Dohm 1.8 + Elissalt ???
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 01 Aug 2025 06:53 am
by pitchingandefense
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 22:12 pm
At least there is numerical application to the analysis. You have to question the valuation of the loaners we traded; which totally depends on how they perform the next couple months and in the postseason. They could be much more valuable to the acquiring team than the surplus trade value assigned. That actually matters little to the Cardinals. We had no place to go or future plans for the departing "soldiers".
I am not disappointed with our augment to the farm and I though I would be..... So there is that.
They have definitely augmented the farm this year. 21 draftees, 17 international signings (spotrac info), and now 6 prospects traded for has added 44 players to the system.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 01 Aug 2025 07:10 am
by Cranny
MrPostman01 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 07:31 am
Our posters went goo goo gaga over the Ozuna trade not valuing what was shipped out from the farm.
Ozuna had 37 home runs and 124 RBI for the Marlins in 2017. He slashed .312/.376/.548/.924. That’s what the Cardinals traded for. Alcantara had a 4.31 ERA in 22 starts at Springfield that season. Gallen had a 3.79 ERA at Springfield and in 4 starts at Memphis had a 3.48 ERA. The Cardinals badly needed a MOTO bat. Most on CT thought it was a great trade.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 01 Aug 2025 07:13 am
by Cranny
Braund241 wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 21:09 pm
pitchingandefense wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 21:02 pm
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
Definitely some nonsense to it, but their model has been pretty accurate in assessing trades as far as attaching monetary value to each name. At the end of the day, a .500 team turned three relievers with expiring contracts into 6 minor league prospects.
A .500 team who will continue to be a .500 team. You go Mo!
That’s the spirit, Braund.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 01 Aug 2025 08:27 am
by Midrange Jay
jbrach wrote: ↑31 Jul 2025 20:42 pm
total and complete nonsense,nobody knows good or bad and wont for years
As long as people click for the “assessment.” All about engagement.
Re: Baseball Trade Value Trade Assessments
Posted: 01 Aug 2025 08:51 am
by HorseTrader
If you look at immediate value we lost, if you consider future, we won on all three.