Actual full Keith Law take on Hels trade
Posted: 31 Jul 2025 01:22 am
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/652635 ... ed_article
The Mets acquired one of the best relievers available in trade this month and didn’t give up a single one of the top 10 prospects in their system. Helsley led the National League in saves last year with 49, which doesn’t matter at all, but I put it in there to see who’s paying attention. He’s a slider/four-seam guy who gets extremely high whiff rates on the breaking ball, over 50 percent last year and at 45.6 percent this year, throwing both pitches for strikes. He’s been a little worse this year than he was the previous three, partly due to just some typical randomness, but also because his fastball is a little straighter, although it’s still 99-101.
Helsley is a free agent after the season, so the Mets get two months of his production plus, they hope, some work in October. The Mets’ bullpen took a hit with the injury to Max Kranick, although even before that they didn’t have anyone as effective as Helsley in the bullpen other than closer Edwin Díaz, so the deal is a clear upgrade for their relief corps.
I don’t like this for the St. Louis Cardinals, to put it mildly. Yes, Helsley’s a rental, so it won’t be hard for them to end up “winning” the deal in terms of value returned — if any of these guys gets to the majors, which is not a guarantee, they’ll probably come out ahead by WAR or your metric of choice. Helsley was one of the best relievers on the market, though, and this can’t have been the best possible return.
Infielder Jesus Baez is the most talented of the three prospects the Cardinals received, easily top five in the Mets’ system just on raw tools, but he’s not a very good baseball player. His approach at the plate is just bad, he doesn’t play hard on either side of the ball, and he showed up out of shape this season. He has great bat speed and projects to plus power, although he gets ready so late at the plate, I’m surprised he can get to better velocity. He’(poop) .244/.334/.406 this year in High A as a 20-year-old after spending the first week in Low A, with just a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
Right-hander Nate Dohm was popular with model-heavy teams in the 2024 draft, as he gets huge extension in his delivery and his fastball has good ‘shape’ along with its 92-95 mph velocity. His slider was plus in college but has played a little below that in pro ball, still with sharp downward break to it but not missing bats as much as I expected. He’s been healthy this year after missing half of his draft spring with an elbow injury, throwing more innings in 2025 (62 2/3) than he did in any calendar year as a college player. He might be a starter, more likely a long reliever.
Right-hander Frank Elissalt was the Mets’ 19th-round pick last year out of Nova Southeastern, and the 23-year-old has had a solid pro debut against younger hitters in Low A, with two relief appearances so far in High A. He sits 94-95 with an average or slightly better slider, with a starter’s delivery, lacking much of a weapon for lefties and perhaps not having the command and control to go through an order more than once. He’s got a chance to get to the big leagues, which is an incredible possibility for a college senior signed that late in the draft.
The Mets acquired one of the best relievers available in trade this month and didn’t give up a single one of the top 10 prospects in their system. Helsley led the National League in saves last year with 49, which doesn’t matter at all, but I put it in there to see who’s paying attention. He’s a slider/four-seam guy who gets extremely high whiff rates on the breaking ball, over 50 percent last year and at 45.6 percent this year, throwing both pitches for strikes. He’s been a little worse this year than he was the previous three, partly due to just some typical randomness, but also because his fastball is a little straighter, although it’s still 99-101.
Helsley is a free agent after the season, so the Mets get two months of his production plus, they hope, some work in October. The Mets’ bullpen took a hit with the injury to Max Kranick, although even before that they didn’t have anyone as effective as Helsley in the bullpen other than closer Edwin Díaz, so the deal is a clear upgrade for their relief corps.
I don’t like this for the St. Louis Cardinals, to put it mildly. Yes, Helsley’s a rental, so it won’t be hard for them to end up “winning” the deal in terms of value returned — if any of these guys gets to the majors, which is not a guarantee, they’ll probably come out ahead by WAR or your metric of choice. Helsley was one of the best relievers on the market, though, and this can’t have been the best possible return.
Infielder Jesus Baez is the most talented of the three prospects the Cardinals received, easily top five in the Mets’ system just on raw tools, but he’s not a very good baseball player. His approach at the plate is just bad, he doesn’t play hard on either side of the ball, and he showed up out of shape this season. He has great bat speed and projects to plus power, although he gets ready so late at the plate, I’m surprised he can get to better velocity. He’(poop) .244/.334/.406 this year in High A as a 20-year-old after spending the first week in Low A, with just a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
Right-hander Nate Dohm was popular with model-heavy teams in the 2024 draft, as he gets huge extension in his delivery and his fastball has good ‘shape’ along with its 92-95 mph velocity. His slider was plus in college but has played a little below that in pro ball, still with sharp downward break to it but not missing bats as much as I expected. He’s been healthy this year after missing half of his draft spring with an elbow injury, throwing more innings in 2025 (62 2/3) than he did in any calendar year as a college player. He might be a starter, more likely a long reliever.
Right-hander Frank Elissalt was the Mets’ 19th-round pick last year out of Nova Southeastern, and the 23-year-old has had a solid pro debut against younger hitters in Low A, with two relief appearances so far in High A. He sits 94-95 with an average or slightly better slider, with a starter’s delivery, lacking much of a weapon for lefties and perhaps not having the command and control to go through an order more than once. He’s got a chance to get to the big leagues, which is an incredible possibility for a college senior signed that late in the draft.