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The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

He hasn't pitched overly well this year. If you don't trade him and he continues to pitch mediocre to poor he knows his market value is dropping and dropping quick. It is not assured at all he would reject the QO

relievers peaks are historically very short. teams are not giving him 6 years

I can't see 1) BDWJr agreeing to a $21+M or 2) Helsley accepting it given he's going to get a solid LT deal from someone at $15-18M AAV.

Adam2 wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:55 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

He hasn't pitched overly well this year. If you don't trade him and he continues to pitch mediocre to poor he knows his market value is dropping and dropping quick. It is not assured at all he would reject the QO

relievers peaks are historically very short. teams are not giving him 6 years

It doesn't matter. What matters is he will want/expect a contract and want to explore that before he gets any older. A 3.09 ERA is not disqualifying for a multi year contract far exceeding $21M guaranteed money. So he will go that route.

And worst case he takes the QO? Its unlikely but even if he does, its only BDW's money (which I'm willing to smartly risk for a good draft pick) and its only a 1 year contract. So it in no way inhibits the Cardinals from spending in 2027 after the new CBA is signed And it gives us a 2nd chance to trade him at the deadline in 2026. I don't see a major downside here. There's no way we have to let him go for nothing or next to nothing.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:01 pm I can't see 1) BDWJr agreeing to a $21+M or 2) Helsley accepting it given he's going to get a solid LT deal from someone at $15-18M AAV.

Which is why risking the QO makes sense. Bill's not agreeing to anything, just a proceedural offer to get a pick.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

No QO for Helsley.

Trade him for whatever they can get.

Otherwise next year they’ll have a (bleep) team with a $20 million closer. And just because he wants a Hader type deal doesn’t mean he’ll get it, or anything close to it.

I find it hilarious that many of the same people who claimed the Cardinals didn’t get a good enough offer for him during the last offseason now believe other GM’s are going to shower him with large multiyear offers, especially since he hasn’t been that great this year.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:01 pm I can't see 1) BDWJr agreeing to a $21+M or 2) Helsley accepting it given he's going to get a solid LT deal from someone at $15-18M AAV.

We shall see, I think you’re wrong.

Bomber1 wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

No QO for Helsley.

Trade him for whatever they can get.

Otherwise next year they’ll have a (bleep) team with a $20 million closer. And just because he wants a Hader type deal doesn’t mean he’ll get it, or anything close to it.

I find it hilarious that many of the same people who claimed the Cardinals didn’t get a good enough offer for him during the last offseason now believe other GM’s are going to shower him with large multiyear offers, especially since he hasn’t been that great this year.

The way a QO works is we make it and Helsley has 5 days to accept or reject it. Only after rejecting it does he get to explore the FA market. He is definately going to want to explore it, and sure maybe he's wrong about market conditions, but this is his one big shot so he's sure to take the FA route. Plenty of players have turned down QOs in the past to explore more guaranteed money over more years (and a few times lost out big, but by then it was too late).

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:12 pm

Bomber1 wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:06 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

No QO for Helsley.

Trade him for whatever they can get.

Otherwise next year they’ll have a (bleep) team with a $20 million closer. And just because he wants a Hader type deal doesn’t mean he’ll get it, or anything close to it.

I find it hilarious that many of the same people who claimed the Cardinals didn’t get a good enough offer for him during the last offseason now believe other GM’s are going to shower him with large multiyear offers, especially since he hasn’t been that great this year.

The way a QO works is we make it and Helsley has 5 days to accept or reject it. Only after rejecting it does he get to explore the FA market. He is definately going to want to explore it, and sure maybe he's wrong about market conditions, but this is his one big shot so he's sure to take the FA route. Plenty of players have turned down QOs in the past to explore more guaranteed money over more years (and a few times lost out big, but by then it was too late).

We’ll see which way it goes.

Personally I doubt DeWitt ok’s the QO.

Trade him.

What a waste of money.

How big a return would be 'exactly what we want'? I don't think the return for three months of Helsley's services will be much more than a middling prospect and a wild-card, and wouldn't hold out for more knowing there's any chance of getting stuck with a QO.

He likes being with the Cardinals. He would take a $20-21M QO. How many closers make that much dough?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/st-louis-cardinals

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 11:51 am The comp draft pick is worth more than a bad lotto ticket, so that has to be considered the minimum return in any Helsley deal.

Helsley has already said he wants a Hader type contract worth near 9 figures, which means 6-7+ years, so he is guaranteed to reject the QO and explore FA. Those draft picks can be very valuable, so its not a bad option if we don't get a great offer for him, or for a package including him, such as a Spencer Jones.

No offense, but I hate everything about this.
1. Helsley isn't getting a Hader deal
2. Hader didn't have a qualifying offer limiting his market
3. No closer is getting 6-7 years...

And he'd be pretty crazy to reject a qualifying offer. It'd be an extremely limited set of teams willing to lose a pick to sign him. His peripherals have gone backwards.

The Cardinals are trying to reset their payroll... spending $20MM+ on a closer is the last thing they should do.

Helsley should be auctioned off this week.

They have to trade him.
He’s all smoke and mirrors now. And he’s due for an arm injury.

I don't think we need more guys who are 4 years away from making an impact on the big league club. If ownership and the front office keep wanting to say this is a retool and not a rebuild, you don't let your closer walk for a 30-50 ranked prospect who won't begin heavy minor league ball until 2027 and who may not help your club until 2029. You trade them now for either multiple players or for someone who is ready to help next year or 2027.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:04 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑25 Jul 2025 12:01 pm I can't see 1) BDWJr agreeing to a $21+M or 2) Helsley accepting it given he's going to get a solid LT deal from someone at $15-18M AAV.

Which is why risking the QO makes sense. Bill's not agreeing to anything, just a proceedural offer to get a pick.

You have to follow Helsley's comments C4C

He wants to stay here badly and I wouldn't put it past him accepting that QO that's life changing money for him, his children and grandchildren!

I just don't think BDWJr would take that risk (even though I'm pretty certain Helsley's agent would talk him into declining).

But we shall see