I asked Grok
To assess the trade values of Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals compared to Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera of the Miami Marlins, we need to consider their current performance, contract status, team control, and market value based on available data, including the provided web results and general baseball trade valuation principles. Below, I’ll break down each player’s profile and evaluate whether a trade involving these players would be fair.
### Player Profiles and Trade Values
#### Nolan Gorman (St. Louis Cardinals, 2B/3B)
- **Performance**: Gorman, a 25-year-old infielder, has shown significant power potential but struggles with consistency. In 2025, his performance has been underwhelming, with a projected slash line around .230/.310/.400 (based on recent trends and past seasons) and a high strikeout rate (around 30%). His power (15-20 HRs per season) and versatility (playing 2B and 3B) are assets, but his offensive inconsistency and defensive limitations lower his value.
- **Contract and Control**: Gorman is arbitration-eligible through 2027, earning approximately $2-3M in 2025. His cost-controlled status for three more seasons adds value, but his inconsistent performance tempers expectations.
- **Trade Value**: Gorman’s trade value is moderate due to his youth, power, and team control. On BaseballTradeValues.com, players like Gorman typically have a trade value in the 10-20 range (arbitrary units used by the site), reflecting a mid-tier prospect or a solid MLB regular. His value is suppressed by his high strikeout rate and lack of elite defensive skills.[](
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/)
#### Jordan Walker (St. Louis Cardinals, OF)
- **Performance**: Walker, a 23-year-old outfielder, was a top prospect but has struggled to translate his minor-league success to the majors. In 2025, he’s been demoted to Triple-A, with a major league slash line around .220/.280/.350 and limited power (5-10 HRs). His athleticism and raw tools (plus power and arm strength) are promising, but his high strikeout rate and poor plate discipline have hurt his stock.[](
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/550532 ... s-players/)
- **Contract and Control**: Walker is pre-arbitration, under team control through 2029, with a minimal salary (around $750K in 2025). His long-term control is a significant asset, but his current production lowers his immediate value.
- **Trade Value**: Walker’s trade value is higher than Gorman’s due to his youth and longer control, likely in the 20-30 range on BaseballTradeValues.com. However, his recent struggles make him a risky asset, akin to a high-upside prospect with question marks.
#### Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins, RHP)
- **Performance**: Alcantara, a 29-year-old former NL Cy Young winner (2022), missed 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and has struggled in 2025 with a 6.98 ERA (4-8 record) over 17 starts. However, he showed signs of recovery in June 2025, posting a 2.74 ERA over four starts, with his fastball velocity (97.3 mph) intact. His control issues (high walk rate early in 2025) and inconsistent results post-surgery lower his value, but his pedigree and recent improvement make him a high-upside target.[](
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/456 ... l-30-teams)[](
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/646756 ... ra-naylor/)[](
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 345919007/)
- **Contract and Control**: Alcantara is signed for $17M in 2025, $17M in 2026, and a $21M club option ($2M buyout) for 2027. This affordable contract for a potential ace is attractive, but his high 2025 ERA creates risk.[](
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/ ... dline.html)
- **Trade Value**: Alcantara’s trade value is depressed due to his 2025 performance but bolstered by his contract and past dominance. On BaseballTradeValues.com, his value is estimated around 20-30, reflecting a gamble on his return to ace form. Teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees see him as a fixable asset with significant upside.[](
https://fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/mia ... d-cabrera/)[](
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/646756 ... ra-naylor/)
#### Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins, RHP)
- **Performance**: Cabrera, a 27-year-old right-hander, has shown breakout potential in 2025 with a 3.41 ERA over 71.1 innings, including a 2.05 ERA since May with improved command (9% walk rate). His mid-90s fastball, changeup, and new curveball generate swing-and-miss, but his injury history and past command issues (15% walk rate in prior seasons) are concerns.[](
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rank ... ing-spots/)[](
https://www.si.com/mlb/marlins/mlb-insi ... rd-cabrera)[](
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/ ... dline.html)
- **Contract and Control**: Cabrera is arbitration-eligible through 2028, earning around $1.95M in 2025. His four years of cheap control make him highly valuable, especially given his recent performance.[](
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/ ... dline.html)
- **Trade Value**: Cabrera’s value is higher than Alcantara’s due to his better 2025 performance and longer, cheaper control, likely in the 30-40 range on BaseballTradeValues.com. The Marlins are reluctant to trade him, viewing him as a potential cornerstone, but a strong offer could sway them.[](
https://www.si.com/mlb/marlins/mlb-insi ... rd-cabrera)[](
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/646756 ... ra-naylor/)
### Trade Value Comparison
- **Gorman (10-20) + Walker (20-30)**: Combined trade value of approximately 30-50. The Cardinals would be trading two young, cost-controlled players with upside but current underperformance. Gorman offers immediate MLB production (albeit inconsistent), while Walker is a high-risk, high-reward prospect with longer control.
- **Alcantara (20-30) + Cabrera (30-40)**: Combined trade value of approximately 50-70. The Marlins would be trading a former ace with recovery potential and a younger pitcher with breakout performance and long-term control. Cabrera’s value is higher due to his 2025 success and cost efficiency, while Alcantara’s value hinges on his past accolades and recent improvement.
### Would This Be a Fair Trade?
A straight swap of Gorman and Walker for Alcantara and Cabrera is unlikely to be fair or appealing to both teams for the following reasons:
1. **Value Mismatch**: The Marlins’ pitchers have a higher combined trade value (50-70) than the Cardinals’ players (30-50). Cabrera’s breakout and long-term control make him particularly valuable, and even Alcantara’s depressed value exceeds Gorman’s due to his potential to return to ace form. The Cardinals would need to add another asset (e.g., a mid-tier prospect) to balance the trade.
2. **Team Needs**:
- **Cardinals**: St. Louis is in playoff contention (5.5 games back in the NL Central as of July 10, 2025) and needs pitching to bolster their rotation, which has struggled recently (33 earned runs in 28 innings over a six-game skid). Alcantara and Cabrera would address this need, but trading Walker, a former top prospect, and Gorman, a power-hitting infielder, could weaken their offense and future outfield depth.[](
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings)[](
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/teams/st ... rdinals/26)
- **Marlins**: Miami is a seller, focused on rebuilding with prospects. Gorman and Walker fit their timeline (young, controllable players), but the Marlins’ rotation is already weak (worst ERA in MLB outside the Rockies), and trading two starters without a significant prospect haul would be counterproductive. They’d likely demand more than just Gorman and Walker, especially for Cabrera, whom they view as untouchable unless overwhelmed.[](
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/456 ... l-30-teams)[](
https://www.si.com/mlb/marlins/mlb-insi ... rd-cabrera)
3. **Market Dynamics**: The Marlins are receiving significant interest in both Alcantara and Cabrera from teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees, who can offer competitive prospect packages. For example, a proposed Yankees trade for Alcantara included OF Spencer Jones, RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, and C/1B Rafael Flores, while Cabrera could fetch prospects like George Lombard Jr., Cam Schlitter, and Roderick Arias. These packages include high-upside prospects, which Gorman and Walker alone may not match.[](
https://fishonfirst.com/news-rumors/mia ... d-cabrera/)
4. **Player Fit**:
- Gorman’s power could help the Marlins’ offense, but his high strikeout rate and defensive limitations don’t align perfectly with their analytical approach.
- Walker’s upside is appealing, but his demotion to Triple-A and lack of MLB production make him a risky centerpiece for two valuable pitchers.
- Alcantara and Cabrera would upgrade the Cardinals’ rotation, but losing Gorman and Walker could create holes in their lineup and outfield, especially with other young outfielders like Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar also underperforming.[](
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/550532 ... s-players/)
### Hypothetical Trade Scenarios
To make this trade fair, adjustments are needed:
- **Cardinals Add Assets**: The Cardinals could include a mid-tier prospect (e.g., Tink Hence or Victor Scott II) to bridge the value gap. For example, Gorman + Walker + Hence might approach the value of Alcantara + Cabrera, though the Marlins might still hesitate due to Cabrera’s high value.
- **Marlins Retain Salary**: If the Marlins retain part of Alcantara’s $17M salary for 2025-26, the trade could become more palatable for St. Louis, reducing the prospect cost.
- **One-for-One Swap**: A more balanced trade might be Gorman + a prospect for Alcantara alone, as Alcantara’s higher risk (post-surgery, 6.98 ERA) aligns better with Gorman’s inconsistent production. Cabrera’s inclusion would likely require Walker plus additional high-value prospects.
### Conclusion
A direct trade of Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker for Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera is not fair due to the higher trade value of the Marlins’ pitchers, particularly Cabrera’s breakout performance and long-term control. The Cardinals would need to add significant assets (e.g., a top prospect) to balance the deal, but this might not align with their playoff push, given the offensive holes it would create. The Marlins, as sellers, are unlikely to accept Gorman and Walker alone, as they can likely fetch better prospect packages from other contenders. A more realistic trade would involve Alcantara alone for a package centered around Walker or Gorman plus additional pieces, but the Marlins’ reluctance to move Cabrera makes the proposed deal unlikely without substantial adjustments.
If you’d like, I can simulate a trade on BaseballTradeValues.com or explore specific prospect packages to make this trade work. Let me know!