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He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

I mean stranger later development stories have happened. Ride it till it dies, I'd say.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers can be so unpredictable.
Fingers crossed!

Riley has struggled with command. He's hard to hit. The pitch comes from a hard place to pick up on it and comes awfully fast. His future depends on command. Lately it hasn't been bad.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

hmoss859 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:45 pm Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

+1

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:56 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

Then how do you plan a bullpen roster for 2026 and beyond? How do you know when you have enough arms and can start drafting OF/DH bat first prospects? Seems like with relievers no amount of playing them will tell us "what we've got"? Is it just going to be a crapshoot every year?

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:17 pm

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:56 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

Then how do you plan a bullpen roster for 2026 and beyond? How do you know when you have enough arms and can start drafting OF/DH bat first prospects? Seems like with relievers no amount of playing them will tell us "what we've got"? Is it just going to be a crapshoot every year?

If a guy wants too much money- let them walk- but plan on having depth each year with a few guys with options to stash in minors. Dont plan on all your minor league arms to make the opening roster. Because outside the elite arms- no one is consjstent and guys like ryan fernandez may be good one year and bad the next so you need to have some backup options in triple a ready so you can keep trying til you find what works.

And maybe target a few guys in free agency that have strung a few good years in a row together. Or a few cheap guys with upside so you ha e deoth options

Its important to enter the year thinking the bp is stacked because at least 1 or 2 guys will disappoint. So if you enter with 8 telievers you feel good about, you can habdke 2 flaming out.

But if you enter thin only feeling good about 5 or 6 guys and already feel you have 2-3 mediocre to mop up relievers to statt the year, them you are in trouble if 1 or 2 of the good arms dont hit that year.

Dont enter the year already thinkjng you have weak spot in bp

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:17 pm

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:56 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

Then how do you plan a bullpen roster for 2026 and beyond? How do you know when you have enough arms and can start drafting OF/DH bat first prospects? Seems like with relievers no amount of playing them will tell us "what we've got"? Is it just going to be a crapshoot every year?

Edward Mejia, Fernando Salas, Mike Lincoln, the 3-4 year contract for the free agent lefty from Toronto. Andrew Miller. Lots more. It’s late. My brain is tired. Yes, relievers come and go, ebb and flow through peaks and valleys. Buy low. Sell high. It’s a tough part of the business.

hmoss859 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:45 pm Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

Your exactly on point. The kid could be really good in that role. Consistency is the question.

redbirdfan51 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:52 pm

hmoss859 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:45 pm Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

Your exactly on point. The kid could be really good in that role. Consistency is the question.

Riley obrien is 30 years old. I wouldnt call him a kid.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:17 pm

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:56 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

Then how do you plan a bullpen roster for 2026 and beyond? How do you know when you have enough arms and can start drafting OF/DH bat first prospects? Seems like with relievers no amount of playing them will tell us "what we've got"? Is it just going to be a crapshoot every year?

I guess the inconsistency is what pigeonholes many of them as relievers instead of starters. Your question is probably the hardest to answer for GMs. And the real experts, us armchair cardstalk GMs!

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 22:10 pm

redbirdfan51 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:52 pm

hmoss859 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:45 pm Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

Your exactly on point. The kid could be really good in that role. Consistency is the question.

Riley obrien is 30 years old. I wouldnt call him a kid.

When you're 78 you can pretty much call anybody kid....

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 22:10 pm

redbirdfan51 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:52 pm

hmoss859 wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:45 pm Stuff is there, can he be consistent?

Your exactly on point. The kid could be really good in that role. Consistency is the question.

Riley obrien is 30 years old. I wouldnt call him a kid.

just discovered Shelby Miller (age 34) is the closer for Arizona. who'da thunk it

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 21:17 pm

Wattage wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:56 pm

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑23 Jun 2025 20:43 pm He's 30 years old and has never stuck at the MLB level. Is he going to become a contributor now or are we just riding the hot hand until it implodes?

Relievers are fickle. He could be amazing thia year then go back to sucking next year. Many relievers have a year ir 2 where they figure it out only to fall apart the next year amd not be able to fins it in time before getting dfa.

Id trust him with closer games for now til he falls apart but wouldn't offer any big money extension in offseason even if he keeps this up.

Then how do you plan a bullpen roster for 2026 and beyond? How do you know when you have enough arms and can start drafting OF/DH bat first prospects? Seems like with relievers no amount of playing them will tell us "what we've got"? Is it just going to be a crapshoot every year?

Bullpen's have always been hard. As much grief as MO gets on this board, he does not get enough credit for his ability to put a bullpen together. Romero for Sosa a few years ago. Signing Maton this year. Fernandez was great last year, but fell apart this year. Leahy has been decent this year. Granillo looks like he will be good. Now O'Brien. No need to throw money at him as he is not arb eligible until 2027.

How do you put good bullpen's together, you get 8 guys that you think will be good at the beginning of the year backed up by 3-4 guys in the minors that are good arms. When 2-3 of the 8 fail, you hope 2-3 of the young ones step up. Outside of Helsley under performing this year, that is more or less what has happened for the Cards this year. Fernandez failed, King has been inconsistent. They have been replaced by Granillo and O'Brien. Helsley OK, Romero after a rough start is doing well, Maton great, Leahy pretty good, King not reliable and Matz good. That is six guys. Add in Granillo and O'Brien and the Cards have 8 pretty reliable guys with Graceffo, Fernandez and one or two others that could improve. It is a playoff caliber bullpen.