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As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

If you’re going to include Kris Benson in there would you not include Jameson Taillon or even Paul Maholm?

Maholm: 11.9 bWAR 77-100 record 4.30 ERA 1.40 WHIP
Benson: 12.8 bWAR 70-75 record 4.42 ERA 1.39 WHIP
Taillon: 14.2 bWAR 78-56 record 3.86 ERA 1.19 WHIP


They have had some pretty big busts though

LHP Clint Johnston (15th overall pick in 1998)- DNP in the MLB
RHP Bobby Bradley (8th overall pick in 1999)- DNP in the MLB
RHP Bryan Bullington (1st overall pick in 2002)- 26 MLB games -0.2 bWAR
RHP Brad Lincoln (4th overall pick in 2006) - 99 career MLB games 0.2 bWAR
LHP Daniel Moskos (4th overall pick in 2007) - 31 career MLB games 0.1 bWAR
1B Pedro Alvarez (2nd overall pick in 2008) - 4.9 career bWAR (he did have 2,980 PAs and 162 HRs though, but led the league in errors for like 4 or 5 straight years)
C Tony Sanchez (4th overall pick in 2009)- 144 career MLB PAs
C Henry Davis (1st overall pick in 2021)- Looks like another bust with a -1.2 career bWAR

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:58 am
If you’re going to include Kris Benson in there would you not include Jameson Taillon or even Paul Maholm?

Maholm: 11.9 bWAR 77-100 record 4.30 ERA 1.40 WHIP
Benson: 12.8 bWAR 70-75 record 4.42 ERA 1.39 WHIP
Taillon: 14.2 bWAR 78-56 record 3.86 ERA 1.19 WHIP

I shouldn't have included Benson.

I've mentioned this before, but these SPs have all been top-15. This does not include international free agents like Castillo, Peralta, Alcantara, Valdez, etc.

Cole (1 overall)
Strasburg (1)
Price (1)
Skenes (1)
Verlander (2),
Rodon (3),
Gore (3)
Gausman (4)
Wheeler (6)
Greinke (6)
Kershaw (7)
Fried (7)
Scherzer (11)
Bumgarner(10)
Sale (13)
Crochet (11)
Hamels (17).
(DeGrom and Saberhagen were both converted from shortstop so they were late-round picks!)
These guys don’t fall to the Cards.
Matt Morris was one of the most successful Cardinals draftees, but again, he was drafted #13.
Lately, some guys have come along who were later-round picks like Hunter Brown (5th rd) and Tarik Skubal (9th rd), but it’s not the norm.

And we think we have player development problems. Many of those at the top are constant losers. Of course spending constraints impact that also.

Seems like in the last 15-20 years, the top 10s have been really hit or miss.

We had some loaded classes like

2011 where 5 of the top 10 picks were 20+ WAR players and 8 of the top 15 being 10+ WAR players. And 2 of those 8 were Jose Fernandez and Trevor Bauer, both of whom would have much greater WAR totals if not for rare issues.

2012 where 5 of the top 11 picks were 10+ WAR with a couple more (Zunino and Heaney) being just under 10.

2014 had 5 of the top 10 picks with 15+ WAR.

2015 had 5 of the top 10 picks with 15+ WAR.


Then you’ve got classes like:

2016 where no top 10 or 15 pick is 10+ WAR

2017 has 1 player with 10+ WAR in the top 15 and for all intents and purposes he looks like the only one that will.

2013 had 2 players with 10+ WAR in the top 15 picks, those were Kris Bryant and Jon Gray.

2009 had Strasburg #1 overall and Wheeler at 6th, but 4 of the top 5 picks had less than 10 WAR.

2008 had 4 of the top 15 with 10+ WAR. Top 2 were Tim Beckham and Pedro Alvarez.

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

You would have to revamp the minor league system then because minor league teams and players belong to MLB organizations. They’ve already done it somewhat with the lottery system and new rules. But the rules to me are really stupid. They should just do the lottery system, not include the other stupid rules on how many in a row you can have.

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

Amazing how we're fed the line about refitting or tanking or whatever you want to call it when all evidence points to the fact that it doesn't work.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

MLB draft is such a c r a p shoot especially when it comes to pitchers

CCard wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:05 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

Revenue sharing with a salary floor might be better.

Cranny wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:10 am

CCard wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:05 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

Revenue sharing with a salary floor might be better.

If you don't have a cap teams like the Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox etc will skirt the rules like the Dodgers have done with deferred salary.

CCard wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:05 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

Not in the draft they wouldn’t. If we reduced MLB to 18 or 20 teams like it was decades ago did more of the elite talent would flow to the teams that actually try like the Cardinals instead of the perennial losers like the Pirates.

18 teams would mean that 80% of the league gets to pick a top 15 talent every year. And we would still have the same number of college and high school prospects in the draft pipeline. Just less talent dilution.

It should also prevent us from having to watch so much bad baseball like these dreadful White Sox and Rockies series that are basically played against minor leaguers. Those games are double Jeopardy because if you beat them, you don’t get ahead because the Cubs also swept them, but if you somehow play down to their level and lose, then you lose ground on the Cubs.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:28 am

CCard wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:05 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

Not in the draft they wouldn’t. If we reduced MLB to 18 or 20 teams like it was decades ago did more of the elite talent would flow to the teams that actually try like the Cardinals instead of the perennial losers like the Pirates.

18 teams would mean that 80% of the league gets to pick a top 15 talent every year. And we would still have the same number of college and high school prospects in the draft pipeline. Just less talent dilution.

It should also prevent us from having to watch so much bad baseball like these dreadful White Sox and Rockies series that are basically played against minor leaguers. Those games are double Jeopardy because if you beat them, you don’t get ahead because the Cubs also swept them, but if you somehow play down to their level and lose, then you lose ground on the Cubs.

It works that way with every team on the schedule you know? No team, win or lose, counts more than any other team.

Futuregm2 wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:31 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:28 am

CCard wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 11:05 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 10:36 am

ClassicO wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 09:49 am As the draft approaches, the Cardinals' search for an elite or even top-tier starting pitcher comes to mind. There's always complaints about the Cards' lack of drafting and developing such a starter, but this chart helps explain why. A great majority of the top SPs over the past 15 years have been from the top 15 draft picks.

The Cards have had the third fewest of those picks that greatly help find these studs.

It's amazing how the Royals and Pirates have had so many and yet only had three top starting pitchers from that group = Pirates with Skenes, Cole, and Kris Benson and the Royals only Greinke.

Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 9.32.28 AM.png

This is why MLB needs relegation. Send teams like the Pirates, WS, Reds, Rockies etc to the minors for a few years and everyone else gets to move up in the draft order.

How would that help? Then the big dogs would get all the best players. I think a hard salary cap and a minimum salary would go a long way to fixing it.

Not in the draft they wouldn’t. If we reduced MLB to 18 or 20 teams like it was decades ago did more of the elite talent would flow to the teams that actually try like the Cardinals instead of the perennial losers like the Pirates.

18 teams would mean that 80% of the league gets to pick a top 15 talent every year. And we would still have the same number of college and high school prospects in the draft pipeline. Just less talent dilution.

It should also prevent us from having to watch so much bad baseball like these dreadful White Sox and Rockies series that are basically played against minor leaguers. Those games are double Jeopardy because if you beat them, you don’t get ahead because the Cubs also swept them, but if you somehow play down to their level and lose, then you lose ground on the Cubs.

It works that way with every team on the schedule you know? No team, win or lose, counts more than any other team.

Of course it works that way in the standings. I'm talking about the mental side - why have to endure so many trap games where you have to internally motivate yourself to not lose to minor leaguers that don't present an "inherent" or attractive challenge. Its just kind of a waste of energy. Besides the fact that watching Tuesday's game against Amatuers was just bad baseball (Ephus pitch HRs in the 9th...errors in the 2nd) and then Vic Scott absorbs the lazy from the other side of the diamond and loafs a throw in that costs us a run. Way to ingrain bad habits. If our players were only watching Jeter or Ripkin or Schmidt level defenses on a daily basis, they might learn good things from it. Plus is lame to subject the fans to something thats so much less interesting than a well played game against a top talent. Sure its nice to win easily, but its ultimately bad for revenue because no one shows up.