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Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
by hugeCardfan
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 17:31 pm
by Banner29
Up until Bloom took over no, it’s not gonna be a quick fix. Having 2 top 10 picks in the system in about a month will certainly help however there’s still a lot of work to do. But he built superb systems for 2 different teams there’s no reason to believe he won’t build one here.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 17:43 pm
by craviduce
it's early, but I think we'll like Michael Watson and Nolan Sparks out of the BP. 2024 draft picks that I ACTUALLY LIKED, not named J.J.
Randel Clemente has all the promise in the world to be a good reliever...consistency isn't there yet, he had no control last year....but he's shown flashes of what "the final product could be". Then he follows it up with a Rotten Egg his next outing. Watchout for him the next 3 seasons.
I think Leonardo Taveras deserves a cup of coffee...8 years with the org. He's not great, but he's earned it.
I'm forgetting a few...
Note ~ Loutos was claimed by the Dodgers after being outrighted off the 40 man. Nunez was demoted from AA to the FCL last week.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 18:07 pm
by hugeCardfan
craviduce wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:43 pm
it's early, but I think we'll like Michael Watson and Nolan Sparks out of the BP. 2024 draft picks that I ACTUALLY LIKED, not named J.J.
Randel Clemente has all the promise in the world to be a good reliever...consistency isn't there yet, he had no control last year....but he's shown flashes of what "the final product could be". Then he follows it up with a Rotten Egg his next outing. Watchout for him the next 3 seasons.
I think Leonardo Taveras deserves a cup of coffee...8 years with the org. He's not great, but he's earned it.
I'm forgetting a few...
Note ~ Loutos was claimed by the Dodgers after being outrighted off the 40 man. Nunez was demoted from AA to the FCL last week.
Thanks. Interesting that the Dodgers, with all their riches, want to tinker with Loutos. I didn't spend much time on Nunez but it's a heckuvan arm if they could ever repurpose it..... Starting is clearly not in the Cards...no pun intended.
Having seen what they did with Granillo and Gastelum, I am sure that there is hope for Clemente, Watson and Sparks. Are you thinking that Watson and Sparks are odds on starters for the time being?
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 18:11 pm
by Youboughtit
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
Do any have superstar upside or a 70 tool? I keep waiting for a 70 hit tool or fastball to get excited but Pujols was the last bat and Gibson the last SP that excelled. This team .is absolutely loaded with B-C grade talent. They need a generational pitcher and hitter to balance it out. I don’t see it anywhere currently
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 18:15 pm
by craviduce
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 18:07 pm
craviduce wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:43 pm
it's early, but I think we'll like Michael Watson and Nolan Sparks out of the BP. 2024 draft picks that I ACTUALLY LIKED, not named J.J.
Randel Clemente has all the promise in the world to be a good reliever...consistency isn't there yet, he had no control last year....but he's shown flashes of what "the final product could be". Then he follows it up with a Rotten Egg his next outing. Watchout for him the next 3 seasons.
I think Leonardo Taveras deserves a cup of coffee...8 years with the org. He's not great, but he's earned it.
I'm forgetting a few...
Note ~ Loutos was claimed by the Dodgers after being outrighted off the 40 man. Nunez was demoted from AA to the FCL last week.
Thanks. Interesting that the Dodgers, with all their riches, want to tinker with Loutos. I didn't spend much time on Nunez but it's a heckuvan arm if they could ever repurpose it..... Starting is clearly not in the Cards...no pun intended.
Having seen what they did with Granillo and Gastelum, I am sure that there is hope for Clemente, Watson and Sparks. Are you thinking that Watson and Sparks are odds on starters for the time being?
if you mean multiple innings in each appearance ? Then yeah, with Sparks starting, he's building the arm strength..stamina. I think he's eventually back in the BP. Watson is a reliever with Peoria right now. I like him, He does well enough. Probably with SPringfield next season. I'd like to see what they do with Love and Findlay...both coming off lengthy IL stints last season, but former starters...will they start next year or stay in the BP? Love could be a real good BP piece
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 21:27 pm
by BrockFloodMaris
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
…to support the Cards MLB roster? Yeah, I guess. But isn’t that setting the bar too low? How about producing All Stars? Is our farm system producing any of them? Other than Helsley?
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 22:25 pm
by Futuregm2
craviduce wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:43 pm
it's early, but I think we'll like Michael Watson and Nolan Sparks out of the BP. 2024 draft picks that I ACTUALLY LIKED, not named J.J.
Randel Clemente has all the promise in the world to be a good reliever...consistency isn't there yet, he had no control last year....but he's shown flashes of what "the final product could be". Then he follows it up with a Rotten Egg his next outing. Watchout for him the next 3 seasons.
I think Leonardo Taveras deserves a cup of coffee...8 years with the org. He's not great, but he's earned it.
I'm forgetting a few...
Note ~ Loutos was claimed by the Dodgers after being outrighted off the 40 man. Nunez was demoted from AA to the FCL last week.
Fwiw, I think Loutos was already dropped by the Dodgers. Maybe the Nats picked him up? Can’t remember but I think it happened a few days ago.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 22:52 pm
by hugeCardfan
OK, so we’ve had a chance to digest the OP and some random responses regarding potential farm contribution to the ML team. It is fair to say that not all team building is expected to come from internal development. No team boasts that. A look at the Dodgers makes this abundantly clear. Few All Stars on last year’s Champions were developments of their farm. Certainly not Mookie Betts or Freddy Freeman, etc. That’s true of most teams in baseball, particularly as it relates to their AS players. So to criticize the farm for not having drafted and developed 70 players may be disingenuous. De Witt himself laid down a plan to build thru 1) the farm, 2) FA and 3) trade. The last two AS’s came via trades with Colorado and Arizona. We paid for them with prospects developed from our system. We also released some spectacular players developed on the farm…Alcantara, Gallen and Arozarena to name a few.
None of this is proffered to prove anything. Mistakes have been made. Incredible successes too. Yadi, AP and Waino. Waino wasn’t drafted but he was the result of a great trade of JD Drew who was drafted.
But let’s confine our discussion to the current. Some of our current players are home grown. Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Nootbaar, Walker, Pallante, Helsley, Gorman and Burleson. Throw in McGreevy. Are any AS’s? Yes. Helsley. Can any be in the future? Yes. I’d argue that Donovan may be an AS this year. Winn could become one in near future. Perhaps Walker as well.
Anyway, the farm has supported the Redbirds in the past and the pitching OP suggests it continues to do so. In the next few days let’s look at the position players and see how that shapes up.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 23:02 pm
by Carp4Cy
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
The best case answer lays in between. There is zero chance our farm can ever provide enough talent to create a completely homegrown pennant winner. Baseball just doesn’t work that way. But there’s a chance it can provide several pieces to support that team.
I agree that there is some room for optimism with our pitching prospects, however, several will inevitably end up in the bullpen. But I’m not sure any of them, including Tink will ever be as good as Helsley at his peak. Or that any of the starters will be a Chris carpenter or Wainwright.
Meanwhile what about our position prospects? I’m not sure we have a guaranteed perrenial All-Star among them. Especially stays at SS given the elite competition there. Much less the next Pujols or Yadi. I guess the Hall of Famer‘s are rare, but remember it took Yadi, Albert, carp, and Wainwright and more to build the World Series contenders under Tony LaRissa. That’s the level we have to go back to, not just a few nice prospects here or there that excited us at the minor league level.
Where are those CY and MVP contenders going to come from? I’m guessing it will be from FA signings or trades - thought it is good to have attractive prospects use a trade bait.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 23:08 pm
by hugeCardfan
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 23:02 pm
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
The best case answer lays in between. There is zero chance our farm can ever provide enough talent to create a completely homegrown pennant winner. Baseball just doesn’t work that way. But there’s a chance it can provide several pieces to support that team.
I agree that there is some room for optimism with our pitching prospects, however, several will inevitably end up in the bullpen. But I’m not sure any of them, including Tink will ever be as good as Helsley at his peak. Or that any of the starters will be a Chris carpenter or Wainwright.
Meanwhile what about our position prospects? I’m not sure we have a guaranteed perrenial All-Star among them. Especially stays at SS given the elite competition there. Much less the next Pujols or Yadi. I guess the Hall of Famer‘s are rare, but remember it took Yadi, Albert, carp, and Wainwright and more to build the World Series contenders under Tony LaRissa. That’s the level we have to go back to, not just a few nice prospects here or there that excited us at the minor league level.
Where are those CY and MVP contenders going to come from? I’m guessing it will be from FA signings or trades - thought it is good to have attractive prospects use a trade bait.
Good post. I think you will agree with many of my comments right before yours.
As I mention in that post, we should address some of your concerns in the position players portion and see how some of that plays out.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 18 Jun 2025 23:12 pm
by Strummer Jones
In the short term--clearly no. Thanks to injuries partly, and just a lack of upper-end talent that could make a go of it in the majors. But this isn't surprising given what we've all learned about our minors in the past few years. We're playing catch-up. Prior to that, it was a mix of getting lucky and guys just absolutely having the drive, or going outside of the organization to develop further.
I've got a more optimistic view of it from five miles up, though. Bloom's record of developing a team's farm club speaks for itself. He got Tampa on the right track. A lot of the hot shot prospects in Boston were Bloom draftees/signings. I think he knows what he's doing. And I have faith in that. On top of that, we're seeing the first signs of the new way helping guys. Bernal, I think, is a beneficiary of that. Roby has alluded to it as well in a recent interview.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 19 Jun 2025 07:45 am
by Cranny
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 23:08 pm
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 23:02 pm
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
The best case answer lays in between. There is zero chance our farm can ever provide enough talent to create a completely homegrown pennant winner. Baseball just doesn’t work that way. But there’s a chance it can provide several pieces to support that team.
I agree that there is some room for optimism with our pitching prospects, however, several will inevitably end up in the bullpen. But I’m not sure any of them, including Tink will ever be as good as Helsley at his peak. Or that any of the starters will be a Chris carpenter or Wainwright.
Meanwhile what about our position prospects? I’m not sure we have a guaranteed perrenial All-Star among them. Especially stays at SS given the elite competition there. Much less the next Pujols or Yadi. I guess the Hall of Famer‘s are rare, but remember it took Yadi, Albert, carp, and Wainwright and more to build the World Series contenders under Tony LaRissa. That’s the level we have to go back to, not just a few nice prospects here or there that excited us at the minor league level.
Where are those CY and MVP contenders going to come from? I’m guessing it will be from FA signings or trades - thought it is good to have attractive prospects use a trade bait.
Good post. I think you will agree with many of my comments right before yours.
As I mention in that post, we should address some of your concerns in the position players portion and see how some of that plays out.
Cards formula for success in the past was to
trade pitching to fill position player holes. They may go back to that because it worked so well.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 19 Jun 2025 07:51 am
by scoutyjones2
Youboughtit wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 18:11 pm
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 17:25 pm
the Cards?
It's a tricky question but there is room for optimism.
I will mention some and hope others will chime in.
Pitching:
My vantage point is this remains a weakness, but if things go well....
A) Starters:
McGreevy, Mathews, and Roby seems to be sooner than later hopefuls.
1) McGreevy is ready to move up. He dominates AAA and has pitched well in ML visits. I think he will settle in as a #3 type.
2) Mathews has regained his composure from last year and, following a few rehab starts, seems to be handling AAA well lately. Today he pitched 5.1 innings with 1H, 2BB's, 6 K's. His changeup was devastating and with control tamed Norfolk. He seems to get stronger as games progress. His fastball ranges between 94-96 and surges to 97. I see him in St Louis next year...probably a #3.
3) Roby is likely a year away. He dominated AA and probably will set a personal record for innings pitched this year. He's struggling a bit in AAA but has some really good moments. He could possibly pitch out of the pen, but I hope they keep him in the rotation.
4) Tink has the best stuff of the bunch but has shown no indication to remain healthy enough to start. He has the best fast ball and likely the best curve. He just needs to give us innings, which he has been unable to do. I don't see Tink in St Louis in 2026 anything short of a minor miracle...unless they give up on the starting. I don't think they will by next year.
5) Ixan Hernandez is moving up but has yet to be tested at AAA. This will be a good test for him and one that may waylay him. His stuff is good and his command continues to improve. However, he tends to nibble and it remains to be seen if that will work in AAA. Ixan Henderson is a deceptive lefty with a six-pitch mix to attack hitters and keep them off balance. He doesn’t blow anyone away with pure stuff or velocity, but all his pitches can get the job done and would leap forward with a little extra velocity. He's 22. No telling if that increase in velocity is available. He's at least a year away.
6) Hjerpe and Sem Robberse have some potential to be in the mix...if they can get healthy.
7) Further down the line is Chen Wei-Lin who is a young pitcher, just turned 23, with a ton of raw tools and that makes him a fun developmental project going forward. He put up good numbers at Palm Beach in 2024 (now in Peoria) with better-than-expected control who stands 6-foot-7.
The highlight of Lin’s arsenal is his fastball, which sits 96-97 mph and has touched 101. Oddly enough, the fastball needs refinement because there isn't enough swing and miss yet. He is 2-3 years away IMO.
There are other starters showing less promise at this point but not without potential.
B) Relievers:
This is a team weakness but there are some real bright spots.
1) Gordon Graceffo has been a starter until this year but appears to be settling into reliever...albeit possibly long reliever. He keeps finding more velocity and has pretty good command. Until this year the fastball was a detriment. It may have recently become much more of a plus. He mixes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. Although the curveball has been his main pitch going back to his college and low A days, the slider looks like the better offering now. It is thought that his stuff may qualify him for the late innings in St Louis next year.
2) Andre Granillo been a top relief prospect in the organization for a few years because of his bat-missing ability. He is finally taking the next step and has done so well lately to be promoted to the 26 man roster. He's pitched effectively in St Louis briefly. Likely a late inning reliever.
3) 23 year old RHR Luis Gastelum possesses a truly remarkable change up.... Springfield has enjoyed his services as a closer recently. He has made great strides commanding the pitch this year and while his stats still belie his development, he looks like one of the best relievers in AA right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our closer sooner or later. You have to see his change up to believe it.
4) There are other relievers with promise: Showalter, Svanson, Loutos, and Nunez to name a few, but they are too far away to speculate on at this point. (Notwithstanding that Svanson has been up a couple times)
That's how I see the pitching and would invite comments from others who might add or contradict my perceptions.
As lengthy as this is, I will undertake position players in a later post.
Needless to say, I am more excited about some of these prospects than our pitching.
Do any have superstar upside or a 70 tool? I keep waiting for a 70 hit tool or fastball to get excited but Pujols was the last bat and Gibson the last SP that excelled. This team .is absolutely loaded with B-C grade talent. They need a generational pitcher and hitter to balance it out. I don’t see it anywhere currently

all teams need/want a generational talent.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 19 Jun 2025 07:55 am
by scoutyjones2
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 22:52 pm
OK, so we’ve had a chance to digest the OP and some random responses regarding potential farm contribution to the ML team. It is fair to say that not all team building is expected to come from internal development. No team boasts that. A look at the Dodgers makes this abundantly clear. Few All Stars on last year’s Champions were developments of their farm. Certainly not Mookie Betts or Freddy Freeman, etc. That’s true of most teams in baseball, particularly as it relates to their AS players. So to criticize the farm for not having drafted and developed 70 players may be disingenuous. De Witt himself laid down a plan to build thru 1) the farm, 2) FA and 3) trade. The last two AS’s came via trades with Colorado and Arizona. We paid for them with prospects developed from our system. We also released some spectacular players developed on the farm…Alcantara, Gallen and Arozarena to name a few.
None of this is proffered to prove anything. Mistakes have been made. Incredible successes too. Yadi, AP and Waino. Waino wasn’t drafted but he was the result of a great trade of JD Drew who was drafted.
But let’s confine our discussion to the current. Some of our current players are home grown. Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Nootbaar, Walker, Pallante, Helsley, Gorman and Burleson. Throw in McGreevy. Are any AS’s? Yes. Helsley. Can any be in the future? Yes. I’d argue that Donovan may be an AS this year. Winn could become one in near future. Perhaps Walker as well.
Anyway, the farm has supported the Redbirds in the past and the pitching OP suggests it continues to do so. In the next few days let’s look at the position players and see how that shapes up.
None of the players are all stars...maybe Hurdy Gurdy.
Re: Is the farm developing enough talent to support
Posted: 19 Jun 2025 08:14 am
by sikeston bulldog2
scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑19 Jun 2025 07:55 am
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Jun 2025 22:52 pm
OK, so we’ve had a chance to digest the OP and some random responses regarding potential farm contribution to the ML team. It is fair to say that not all team building is expected to come from internal development. No team boasts that. A look at the Dodgers makes this abundantly clear. Few All Stars on last year’s Champions were developments of their farm. Certainly not Mookie Betts or Freddy Freeman, etc. That’s true of most teams in baseball, particularly as it relates to their AS players. So to criticize the farm for not having drafted and developed 70 players may be disingenuous. De Witt himself laid down a plan to build thru 1) the farm, 2) FA and 3) trade. The last two AS’s came via trades with Colorado and Arizona. We paid for them with prospects developed from our system. We also released some spectacular players developed on the farm…Alcantara, Gallen and Arozarena to name a few.
None of this is proffered to prove anything. Mistakes have been made. Incredible successes too. Yadi, AP and Waino. Waino wasn’t drafted but he was the result of a great trade of JD Drew who was drafted.
But let’s confine our discussion to the current. Some of our current players are home grown. Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Nootbaar, Walker, Pallante, Helsley, Gorman and Burleson. Throw in McGreevy. Are any AS’s? Yes. Helsley. Can any be in the future? Yes. I’d argue that Donovan may be an AS this year. Winn could become one in near future. Perhaps Walker as well.
Anyway, the farm has supported the Redbirds in the past and the pitching OP suggests it continues to do so. In the next few days let’s look at the position players and see how that shapes up.
None of the players are all stars...maybe Hurdy Gurdy.
Home grown is a mere part of the system and has its place; like adding an aging vet. A pie ain’t a good pie till all the ingredients are added.