STLtoday.com

Question for CT folks...Is it possible, or even likely, that our Adam Wainwright is going to be the last pitcher to win 200 games in a career?

Gerrit Cole sits at 153, but he's 34 and hasn't pitched this season. Next is Sale at 141...but he's 36 and has only won 3 games this season.

Not exactly a timely thread, then again, the weather is awful and it's not a thread about Burly.

So what do you think? And...IF Waino is the last to 200, would that put him in the HOF someday?

Good question. I’m not sure I think there may someday be but it’s going to be a rare thing and will probably be a lock to get a pitcher in

Monsieur De Treville wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:08 pm Question for CT folks...Is it possible, or even likely, that our Adam Wainwright is going to be the last pitcher to win 200 games in a career?

Gerrit Cole sits at 153, but he's 34 and hasn't pitched this season. Next is Sale at 141...but he's 36 and has only won 3 games this season.

Not exactly a timely thread, then again, the weather is awful and it's not a thread about Burly.

So what do you think? And...IF Waino is the last to 200, would that put him in the HOF someday?

It’s crazy, very few even have a shot. I went through the active wins leader list… it’d have to be a guy like Wheeler pitching into his early 40’s or Tarik Skubal just being that dude. If he vet could to like 85ish wins by the end of his age 30 season, he’d be on the right kind of path.

It almost makes all those last few awful starts of Wainwrights seem worth it. lol, joking aside I’m glad he pushed through and did it.

doubtful 200 puts Waino in the HOF
JMO

Logan Webb is the active leader for wins for a pitcher under 30 years of age (he's 28), with 60 wins.

Flaherty is 29 and right behind him with 59 wins.

Both would need to average about 14 wins for the next 10 years to get there

vegascardsfan5890 wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:29 pm Logan Webb is the active leader for wins for a pitcher under 30 years of age (he's 28), with 60 wins.

Flaherty is 29 and right behind him with 59 wins.

Both would need to average about 14 wins for the next 10 years to get there

Someone excelled in 5th grade math.

Show off!

An Old Friend wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:30 pm

vegascardsfan5890 wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:29 pm Logan Webb is the active leader for wins for a pitcher under 30 years of age (he's 28), with 60 wins.

Flaherty is 29 and right behind him with 59 wins.

Both would need to average about 14 wins for the next 10 years to get there

Someone excelled in 5th grade math.

Show off!

I do what I can to help! I don't know what kind of math you all do in the Midwest sometimes haha

I don't know about all y'all, but Waino is probably my favorite Cardinal of all time after Gibby. I don't believe he will ever make it into the Hall of Fame. But he's already in my personal HOF. But then again, I prefer pitchers that could hit.

Monsieur De Treville wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:08 pm Question for CT folks...Is it possible, or even likely, that our Adam Wainwright is going to be the last pitcher to win 200 games in a career?

Gerrit Cole sits at 153, but he's 34 and hasn't pitched this season. Next is Sale at 141...but he's 36 and has only won 3 games this season.

Not exactly a timely thread, then again, the weather is awful and it's not a thread about Burly.

So what do you think? And...IF Waino is the last to 200, would that put him in the HOF someday?

Wainwright had nowhere near a HOF worthy career.
That aside, you pose a highly interesting question.
Here's the problem.
In today's game, the very worst teams are going to be able to draft the very best prospects (and pitching will of course be the priority) - thereby wasting several good seasons of an elite young pitcher.
See: Skenes, Paul.
Will another pitcher win 200?
Yes, of course.
But, it will require a high quality team which wins 90+ games per year to do one of three things.
Get very lucky in the draft.
Or make an overwhelming trade offer to acquire an elite young starter in the first 1-2 years of his career - and then immediately extend him for 10 years.
Or, make an overwhelming trade offer to acquire an elite young starter, who is a consensus #1 MLB prospect on the verge on MLB - and then extend him 10 years nearly immediately when he reaches the show.
These scenarios would permit a young ace to have a shot at around 100 wins by age 30 - and then begin the march to 200.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

Melville wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 20:14 pm

Monsieur De Treville wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:08 pm Question for CT folks...Is it possible, or even likely, that our Adam Wainwright is going to be the last pitcher to win 200 games in a career?

Gerrit Cole sits at 153, but he's 34 and hasn't pitched this season. Next is Sale at 141...but he's 36 and has only won 3 games this season.

Not exactly a timely thread, then again, the weather is awful and it's not a thread about Burly.

So what do you think? And...IF Waino is the last to 200, would that put him in the HOF someday?

Wainwright had nowhere near a HOF worthy career.
That aside, you pose a highly interesting question.
Here's the problem.
In today's game, the very worst teams are going to be able to draft the very best prospects (and pitching will of course be the priority) - thereby wasting several good seasons of an elite young pitcher.
See: Skenes, Paul.
Will another pitcher win 200?
Yes, of course.
But, it will require a high quality team which wins 90+ games per year to do one of three things.
Get very lucky in the draft.
Or make an overwhelming trade offer to acquire an elite young starter in the first 1-2 years of his career - and then immediately extend him for 10 years.
Or, make an overwhelming trade offer to acquire an elite young starter, who is a consensus #1 MLB prospect on the verge on MLB - and then extend him 10 years nearly immediately when he reaches the show.
These scenarios would permit a young ace to have a shot at around 100 wins by age 30 - and then begin the march to 200.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

Maybe not. But plenty of pitchers in the HOF who didn't have a HOF career. One example...

Waino has a higher fWAR than Jack Morris. A better era & era+. A higher winning percentage. A lower WHIP, lower BB per 9, and higher K per 9. Waino won two GG and a Silver Slugger. While neither won a Cy Young, Waino did finish 2nd twice and 3rd twice. And Waino's K of Beltran is an iconic moment.

Now no, I don't feel he had a HOF career either. But...if he does get in someday, I would not be overly shocked. If Harold Baines is in, Waino is also a possibility.

Crazy to think Denny McLain won 31 games in 1968. He was 24 years old. Different times for sure.

82birds wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:26 pm doubtful 200 puts Waino in the HOF
JMO

At some point, 200 has to be looked at as a major accomplishment. If not, can't see any more pitchers getting a bust in Ctown.

Maybe pitchers noe days only pitching less than 200 innings a year and nly winning 15 games a year. Do hey belong in the HOF just asking
I know this is a different era
Bot sure if another pitcher wins 200. How many win 20 in a year anymore

RamFan08NY wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 22:59 pm

82birds wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 18:26 pm doubtful 200 puts Waino in the HOF
JMO

At some point, 200 has to be looked at as a major accomplishment. If not, can't see any more pitchers getting a bust in Ctown.

...+1... The game continues to evolve, and the "minimums" of any stat necessary to get into the HOF change. Just like I believe 30-game winners in a season are pretty much history, so will 200+ wins in a career be the same...

But, so-called "improvements" to the game could change all that ... Changes to the strike zone, or AI-aided balls & strikes calls may change the whole stats outlook for the game... In my opinion MLB has already "cheapened" the game with changes, going back to lowering the pitching mound, and other changes subsequently... One of the worst, is the "clock," timing the pitcher and batter at the plate... Baseball "ain't like it used to be," for sure... Don't get me started on this..!

A very good question, and I'm sure others may have different thoughts.

illiniriles wrote: ↑06 Jun 2025 20:01 pm I don't know about all y'all, but Waino is probably my favorite Cardinal of all time after Gibby. I don't believe he will ever make it into the Hall of Fame. But he's already in my personal HOF. But then again, I prefer pitchers that could hit.

It's crazy how Waino has been dragged through the mud around here.

It's recency bias. The 2023 season was horrible. And people equate that to Waino trying to get his 200th win.

That's so unfair.

Waino was an absolute beast for STL for nearly 20 years. Coming back from injuries, performing, great in the playoffs.

When he came back in 2016-2018, he seemed toast. Then he had a decent 2019. Then, he was really good most of 2020-2022.

What a warrior. 2.83 ERA in the postseason in 29 games, 16 starts.