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It will be interesting to see Adolis Garcia. He's now a DH and came out of the gates this year hitting .357 in his first five games. Since then, he has hit .197/.237/.322/.560 in 198 PAs. In May he's hitting .189/.224/.333/.558 in 98 PAs. Fine post season performer and helped deliver the Rangers first world championship just two years ago.

Sort of like Tony Armas -- power and really poor plate discipline. Seems to be on a precipitous decline as those players tend to do when they age into their 30s.

nighthawk wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:03 am It will be interesting to see Adolis Garcia. He's now a DH and came out of the gates this year hitting .357 in his first five games. Since then, he'(poop) .197/.237/.322/.560 in 198 PAs. In May he's hitting .189/.224/.333/.558 in 98 PAs. Fine post season performer and helped deliver the Rangers first world championship just two years ago.

Sort of like Tony Armas -- power and really poor plate discipline. Seems to be on a precipitous decline as those players tend to do when they age into their 30s.

Armas is a good comp.

Funny about AG though, his OPS is .626 but WAR is 0.9. Maybe he's a little Armas and a little Heyward.

I guess his defense is really good.

So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am

nighthawk wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:03 am It will be interesting to see Adolis Garcia. He's now a DH and came out of the gates this year hitting .357 in his first five games. Since then, he'(poop) .197/.237/.322/.560 in 198 PAs. In May he's hitting .189/.224/.333/.558 in 98 PAs. Fine post season performer and helped deliver the Rangers first world championship just two years ago.

Sort of like Tony Armas -- power and really poor plate discipline. Seems to be on a precipitous decline as those players tend to do when they age into their 30s.

Armas is a good comp.

Funny about AG though, his OPS is .626 but WAR is 0.9. Maybe he's a little Armas and a little Heyward.

I guess his defense is really good.

He did win a gold glove two years ago, but my bad, he's not a DH, but a rightfielder and leads all rightfielders in put outs, fielding .992 with just one error.

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

^this

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

He had two good years and one great year, out of 6 years of team control, and even in those 3 years he averaged a .305 OBP.

If the Cards had kept him the fans would have been ranting about his strikeouts those first two years and the manager probably wouldn't have played him full time anyway, so without the long leash he probably wouldn't have even reached that peak in his age 30 season where he was 127 OPS+ and 4.9 WAR.

3dender wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:32 am

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

He had two good years and one great year, out of 6 years of team control, and even in those 3 years he averaged a .305 OBP.

If the Cards had kept him the fans would have been ranting about his strikeouts those first two years and the manager probably wouldn't have played him full time anyway, so without the long leash he probably wouldn't have even reached that peak in his age 30 season where he was 127 OPS+ and 4.9 WAR.

Quite possible/probable you're right, and to think we're talking about a guy who was DFA'd a couple times.
I probably complain too much about the Cards missing out with Arozarena, but can understand missing with Garcia.
Great plus tools with throwing, speed and power, but negatives with bat to ball skills and plate discipline.

3dender wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:32 am

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

He had two good years and one great year, out of 6 years of team control, and even in those 3 years he averaged a .305 OBP.

If the Cards had kept him the fans would have been ranting about his strikeouts those first two years and the manager probably wouldn't have played him full time anyway, so without the long leash he probably wouldn't have even reached that peak in his age 30 season where he was 127 OPS+ and 4.9 WAR.

Not really true. And a lot of assumptions.

Dude averaged a 4.0 WAR a year from 2021-2023. That was the Goldy/Arenado window.

We could've used him on the roster all three years.

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

Yup. Many guys like this out there. Wild card.

JDW wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:13 am So a player like this might provide decent value when they're cost controlled, but learn that extending them past that point comes with high risk of early regression.

A player with power will get opportunities.

But see Randall Grichuk. They will be little one year deals.

I kind of find his play and overall blend of metrics interesting.

His Range OAA is in the 89th percentile this year for RF which is very impressive along with arm strength in the 91st percentile but his overall arm value is only rating at 34%. Unsure if he makes poor throws, skew in the data, etc.. But never the less overall he can play RF and play it very well.

Offensively he is 91st avg exit velo, so he obviously swings the bat hard still
Barrel % 88%
Hard Hit 77%

Not so good

Chase 4%, basically swings at a ball rolled to him
Whiff, BB and K are all bottom 25% quartile.

Base running is 70% so he's clearly a plus there and his raw foot speed has him ~50%.

Probably a 1 year sign type guy, if he can maintain he might be able to get to 20 bWAR career and some additional millions in his bank/checking/investment accounts. Not bad....

nighthawk wrote: ↑29 May 2025 07:03 am It will be interesting to see Adolis Garcia. He's now a DH and came out of the gates this year hitting .357 in his first five games. Since then, he has hit .197/.237/.322/.560 in 198 PAs. In May he's hitting .189/.224/.333/.558 in 98 PAs. Fine post season performer and helped deliver the Rangers first world championship just two years ago.

Sort of like Tony Armas -- power and really poor plate discipline. Seems to be on a precipitous decline as those players tend to do when they age into their 30s.

Ah, Tony Armas. Won a trivia contest a few year’s back for a full tailgate for 50 people by coming up with his name to this question:
Who is the only player in Major League Baseball history whose name includes only body parts as syllables? Got it within one minute by starting at the bottom of the body, so got Tony right off the bat.