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imetsatchelpaige wrote: ↑20 May 2025 18:50 pm St. Louis Cardinals (27-21)
Preseason playoff odds: 33.9%

Key stat: The Cardinals went 12-1 from May 4 to 17, posting a 2.33 ERA and throwing three shutouts in that stretch. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the majors with a 3.64 ERA -- although just 25th in strikeout rate.

Hot start: Brendan Donovan is hitting .330/.387/.466 with 15 doubles. Ivan Herrera missed a month with a bone bruise in his knee but is hitting .429 in 15 games with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases.

Can he keep it going? Matthew Liberatore pitched primarily out of the bullpen in 2024, but the 25-year-old lefty has moved into the rotation and is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 47-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Area of concern: Former top prospect Jordan Walker was up and down between the Cardinals and Triple-A last year, struggling while in the big leagues with a .201 average. Given another opportunity at regular duty, he's off to a slow start, hitting .189 with 44 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.

How real are good starts from Tigers, Cardinals, Giants?
ESPN
David Schoenfield
May 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

The Cardinals dropped to 14-19 in early May and looked kind of like what everyone expected: not very interesting and not very likely to be a factor in the NL Central race. Then came that hot streak, and while it included sweeps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, it also included series wins over the Phillies, New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. Indeed, there's nothing fluky in the team's overall win-loss record, with a plus-38 run differential -- heck, St. Louis is even 0-4 in extra-inning games to drag the record down a bit.

The number that jumps out, however, is the strikeout rate from the rotation. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are all averaging fewer than 6.0 K's per nine, and it's difficult to remain successful in this baseball era with strikeout rates that low. Of 116 pitchers with at least 40 innings, that trio ranks 105th, 106th and 111th in strikeout rate and has also combined for a 3.77 ERA. Add in Liberatore and Sonny Gray, and that's a rotation that could make the playoffs -- if they can keep it going. I'm skeptical, although Pallante in particular is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has great infield defense behind him with Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado and Donovan.

The offense feels a bit more like the real deal, even as Walker and Nolan Gorman struggle. Victor Scott II has been much better after being overmatched in the majors a year ago, and Winn has a .349 OBP after looking lost in spring training, when he went 4-for-50. If Scott and Winn can provide decent enough offense to go with their defense, it makes the lineup a little deeper and helps make up for the team's overall lack of power.

In the end, those are two things that pop out: the lack of strikeouts from the starting pitchers and the offense having not quite enough power. There is potential here to surprise and battle the Chicago Cubs for the division, but for now, I'm not completely sold.

Verdict: Not real

BrockFloodMaris wrote: ↑20 May 2025 19:28 pm

imetsatchelpaige wrote: ↑20 May 2025 18:50 pm St. Louis Cardinals (27-21)
Preseason playoff odds: 33.9%

Key stat: The Cardinals went 12-1 from May 4 to 17, posting a 2.33 ERA and throwing three shutouts in that stretch. The rotation ranks a solid eighth in the majors with a 3.64 ERA -- although just 25th in strikeout rate.

Hot start: Brendan Donovan is hitting .330/.387/.466 with 15 doubles. Ivan Herrera missed a month with a bone bruise in his knee but is hitting .429 in 15 games with 11 of his 21 hits going for extra bases.

Can he keep it going? Matthew Liberatore pitched primarily out of the bullpen in 2024, but the 25-year-old lefty has moved into the rotation and is 3-3 with a 2.92 ERA and an impressive 47-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Area of concern: Former top prospect Jordan Walker was up and down between the Cardinals and Triple-A last year, struggling while in the big leagues with a .201 average. Given another opportunity at regular duty, he's off to a slow start, hitting .189 with 44 strikeouts in 145 plate appearances.

How real are good starts from Tigers, Cardinals, Giants?
ESPN
David Schoenfield
May 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

The Cardinals dropped to 14-19 in early May and looked kind of like what everyone expected: not very interesting and not very likely to be a factor in the NL Central race. Then came that hot streak, and while it included sweeps of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, it also included series wins over the Phillies, New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. Indeed, there's nothing fluky in the team's overall win-loss record, with a plus-38 run differential -- heck, St. Louis is even 0-4 in extra-inning games to drag the record down a bit.

The number that jumps out, however, is the strikeout rate from the rotation. Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are all averaging fewer than 6.0 K's per nine, and it's difficult to remain successful in this baseball era with strikeout rates that low. Of 116 pitchers with at least 40 innings, that trio ranks 105th, 106th and 111th in strikeout rate and has also combined for a 3.77 ERA. Add in Liberatore and Sonny Gray, and that's a rotation that could make the playoffs -- if they can keep it going. I'm skeptical, although Pallante in particular is an extreme ground ball pitcher and has great infield defense behind him with Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado and Donovan.

The offense feels a bit more like the real deal, even as Walker and Nolan Gorman struggle. Victor Scott II has been much better after being overmatched in the majors a year ago, and Winn has a .349 OBP after looking lost in spring training, when he went 4-for-50. If Scott and Winn can provide decent enough offense to go with their defense, it makes the lineup a little deeper and helps make up for the team's overall lack of power.

In the end, those are two things that pop out: the lack of strikeouts from the starting pitchers and the offense having not quite enough power. There is potential here to surprise and battle the Chicago Cubs for the division, but for now, I'm not completely sold.

Verdict: Not real

Nice post Satch! As much as I dislike how baseball has become a three outcome game, the author shines a light on the Cards deficiencies in two of those three outcomes. It does look tough to win the NLC with those glaring peripherals.

JuanAgosto wrote: ↑20 May 2025 21:53 pm Who gives a rats (donkey) what some dufus from espn says? It's a garbage network with a bunch of squirrels. The Cardinals may be for real or they may fall flat. It'll be decided on the field. Not by some nerd farting his opinion.

Cranny wrote: ↑20 May 2025 20:30 pm Old time Cardinal baseball.

JuanAgosto wrote: ↑20 May 2025 21:53 pm Who gives a rats (donkey) what some dufus from espn says? It's a garbage network with a bunch of squirrels. The Cardinals may be for real or they may fall flat. It'll be decided on the field. Not by some nerd farting his opinion.

1_12_1968 wrote: ↑21 May 2025 08:19 am

Cranny wrote: ↑20 May 2025 20:30 pm Old time Cardinal baseball.

No where in the piece does he reference the fire blanket defense the Cardinals are throwing on the opposition

imetsatchelpaige wrote: ↑21 May 2025 09:48 am

JuanAgosto wrote: ↑20 May 2025 21:53 pm Who gives a rats (donkey) what some dufus from espn says? It's a garbage network with a bunch of squirrels. The Cardinals may be for real or they may fall flat. It'll be decided on the field. Not by some nerd farting his opinion.

Thanks for sharing. Why did you even respond to this?