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Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 18 Apr 2025 22:28 pm
by ramfandan
St. Louis has scored 99 runs and allowed 93 (a +6 run differential ) yet are sub .500 . In the MLB standings, Expected W-L column
that differential for 20 games would be 11-9 record . Cards are 9-11
Only one AL team is in the same boat. Tampa Bay is a +10 differential 84 --74 with expected record for that 11-9 .
The Rays actual record is 8-12 .
Call it tough luck for Cardinals or whatever term you wish but Cardinals have a bunch of one run losses and haven't won any of the extra innings.
One hopes or the course of the next month or so , the Cardinals can win some of the close ones. If not, it could be a long season.
You won't win them all but to be a good winning team , it sure helps to win 60% or more of those.
The worse thing for a team is if continued close losses become a mental barrier . If the players start to feel, somehow some way the other team is going to snatch the game in the end.
Even on CT , you can sense that when some say . " We better not get to extra innings or we are going to lose . "
Lot of negative talk on extra innings despite being just 20 games into the season.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 18 Apr 2025 22:41 pm
by swatski
It’s because Cards are at a huge disadvantage in the dugout in close games.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 18 Apr 2025 22:42 pm
by Ozziesfan41
swatski wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:41 pm
It’s because Cards are at a huge disadvantage in the dugout in close games.
+1 the less oli has ti manage the better the more he does the worse the results
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 00:04 am
by Ozziesfan41
Ozziesfan41 wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:42 pm
swatski wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:41 pm
It’s because Cards are at a huge disadvantage in the dugout in close games.
+1 the less oli has ti manage the better the more he does the worse the results
Hes paint by numbers manager
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 00:28 am
by Dewey Kuey
That's because Oli costs them about one win every 10 games with his [shirt]ty managing.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 00:34 am
by Carp4Cy
Weird thing about regressing pythagrians - suppose a better manager had pitched Helsley differently in those extra inning games and we hadn't lost them. Then our run differential would be even higher than it is, and our expected record would be higher still.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 06:31 am
by BrockFloodMaris
ramfandan wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:28 pm
St. Louis has scored 99 runs and allowed 93 (a +6 run differential ) yet are sub .500 . In the MLB standings, Expected W-L column
that differential for 20 games would be 11-9 record . Cards are 9-11
Only one AL team is in the same boat. Tampa Bay is a +10 differential 84 --74 with expected record for that 11-9 .
The Rays actual record is 8-12 .
Call it tough luck for Cardinals or whatever term you wish but Cardinals have a bunch of one run losses and haven't won any of the extra innings.
One hopes or the course of the next month or so , the Cardinals can win some of the close ones. If not, it could be a long season.
You won't win them all but to be a good winning team , it sure helps to win 60% or more of those.
The worse thing for a team is if continued close losses become a mental barrier . If the players start to feel, somehow some way the other team is going to snatch the game in the end.
Even on CT , you can sense that when some say . " We better not get to extra innings or we are going to lose . "
Lot of negative talk on extra innings despite being just 20 games into the season.
It’s difficult for me to draw any conclusions from that stat with such a small sample size.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 06:48 am
by mattmitchl44
BrockFloodMaris wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 06:31 am
ramfandan wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:28 pm
St. Louis has scored 99 runs and allowed 93 (a +6 run differential ) yet are sub .500 . In the MLB standings, Expected W-L column
that differential for 20 games would be 11-9 record . Cards are 9-11
Only one AL team is in the same boat. Tampa Bay is a +10 differential 84 --74 with expected record for that 11-9 .
The Rays actual record is 8-12 .
Call it tough luck for Cardinals or whatever term you wish but Cardinals have a bunch of one run losses and haven't won any of the extra innings.
One hopes or the course of the next month or so , the Cardinals can win some of the close ones. If not, it could be a long season.
You won't win them all but to be a good winning team , it sure helps to win 60% or more of those.
The worse thing for a team is if continued close losses become a mental barrier . If the players start to feel, somehow some way the other team is going to snatch the game in the end.
Even on CT , you can sense that when some say . " We better not get to extra innings or we are going to lose . "
Lot of negative talk on extra innings despite being just 20 games into the season.
It’s difficult for me to draw any conclusions from that stat with such a small sample size.
^This.
It's way too fluky to draw any conclusions 20 games in. The Cardinals already have three wins by 7+ runs which are padding their run differential. They didn't have three wins by 7+ runs until the end of July last year.
Is that real, or just a fluke? No way of knowing yet.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 06:55 am
by ramfandan
BrockFloodMaris wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 06:31 am
ramfandan wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:28 pm
St. Louis has scored 99 runs and allowed 93 (a +6 run differential ) yet are sub .500 . In the MLB standings, Expected W-L column
that differential for 20 games would be 11-9 record . Cards are 9-11
Only one AL team is in the same boat. Tampa Bay is a +10 differential 84 --74 with expected record for that 11-9 .
The Rays actual record is 8-12 .
Call it tough luck for Cardinals or whatever term you wish but Cardinals have a bunch of one run losses and haven't won any of the extra innings.
One hopes or the course of the next month or so , the Cardinals can win some of the close ones. If not, it could be a long season.
You won't win them all but to be a good winning team , it sure helps to win 60% or more of those.
The worse thing for a team is if continued close losses become a mental barrier . If the players start to feel, somehow some way the other team is going to snatch the game in the end.
Even on CT , you can sense that when some say . " We better not get to extra innings or we are going to lose . "
Lot of negative talk on extra innings despite being just 20 games into the season.
It’s difficult for me to draw any conclusions from that stat with such a small sample size.
I agree with small sample size and drawing conclusions. The Cardinals may go the next 8 close games and go 6-2 in those games.
It's when players get that snakebitten feeling that it isn't good. They may never feel that and would be a good thing. You just want to play each game as it comes to you . If you get it in your head , oh boy , here we go again . Then it becomes a mental issue and relates in poorer outcomes.
As I pointed out, there are already a few on CT who state . 'This team is not good in extra innings.' It's that mindset you wish to avoid.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 08:25 am
by rockondlouie
It's that 1 - 7 road record
1-run games and extra ghost innings.
Re: Cardinals only team in NL with + run differential with losing record
Posted: 19 Apr 2025 08:27 am
by scoutyjones2
BrockFloodMaris wrote: ↑19 Apr 2025 06:31 am
ramfandan wrote: ↑18 Apr 2025 22:28 pm
St. Louis has scored 99 runs and allowed 93 (a +6 run differential ) yet are sub .500 . In the MLB standings, Expected W-L column
that differential for 20 games would be 11-9 record . Cards are 9-11
Only one AL team is in the same boat. Tampa Bay is a +10 differential 84 --74 with expected record for that 11-9 .
The Rays actual record is 8-12 .
Call it tough luck for Cardinals or whatever term you wish but Cardinals have a bunch of one run losses and haven't won any of the extra innings.
One hopes or the course of the next month or so , the Cardinals can win some of the close ones. If not, it could be a long season.
You won't win them all but to be a good winning team , it sure helps to win 60% or more of those.
The worse thing for a team is if continued close losses become a mental barrier . If the players start to feel, somehow some way the other team is going to snatch the game in the end.
Even on CT , you can sense that when some say . " We better not get to extra innings or we are going to lose . "
Lot of negative talk on extra innings despite being just 20 games into the season.
It’s difficult for me to draw any conclusions from that stat with such a small sample size.
Thank you.