The superstar effect being ignored by Cardinals.

[Youboughtit]

How many superstars are there?

Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
New York Mets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr..
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh.
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Mason Miller
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte.
Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader.
Texas Rangers: Corey Seager.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero.
Las Vegas As: Nick Kurtz.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Churio, Jacob Misiorowski
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez.
Load Angeles Angels: Mike Trout.
Washington Nationals: James Wood.

Just a partial list off top of my head. All all star top 3 at position. And no Winn will never be anywhere close.

Winn is already close. GG SS . Willing to play without being 100%. He gets back to the approach at the plate he had in 24 he is a superstar just as much as most of those guys on your list.

Must be a top 5 SS bat along with his defense. Was 18th last year. Long way to go

I get your point that we need a few superstar players and at the present time we don't have that. But Winn will get there. Where is the rule that he has to be a top 5 offensive ss? It's ok to have your opinion-I certainly have mine. We could have a lengthy thread debating what qualifies as a superstar shortstop.

To be an all star he has to hit better than 18th at position, superstars make multiple all star games. Defense/Arm is 25% hit for average 25% power 25% running 25%. He has 2/4. Need to either hit .300 or 25HR consistently to be a superstar. Right now I would say he is closer to defensive specialist than superstar level
Like Witt Jr,

[Youboughtit]

My perspective is a rebuild can involve spending on superstar players. Rebuild does not have to mean cutting payroll $100m. That is a choice by a cheap owner. Just like it will be the fans choice not to pay $ to watch a AAA roster. What will draw fans to a bad team? A future HOF player like Tarik Skubal or many others. I went to 1 game last year. Why? It was the Dodger and I found cheap seats to see legit superstars. That was the point of the post.

Attendance = multiple great players Not Mason Winn types. 30 plus HR types.

[CorneliusWolfe]

For the 1 millionth time, I and many others think a rebuild plan can and should be dynamic and value incremental improvements instead of relying on a worst-to-first instant evolution.

I don't expect they are going to go "worst to first." Far from it.

I expect they are going to have a sub-.500 season in 2026. Then as Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, etc. come on line in 2026/2027, and we hopefully see more development from other players, I expect they could be close to 80 wins in 2027.

Then I'd expect them to ramp up by adding some talent by FA after the 2027 season. By 2028, an 85-89 win team that could make the postseason.

With more additions/development after 2028, by 2029 a 90+ roster than can really be a serious WS contender again.

A plan that can be accomplished in 3 years with barely even trying could probably be done sooner with some real effort and persistence.

It's going to take time to matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle (and/or Mathews, Baez, etc.) to the majors AND get them to producing at a 3+ fWAR level. You can't rush that faster than it is going to happen. Right now the priority should be on subtracting Donovan from the 2026 roster to add another ML-ready Wetherholt/Doyle prospect to give them another bite at the apple to getting 3+ fWAR players on the 2028/2029 roster.

That's the rate limiting step in all this that makes 2028, 2029 the objective, not 2026, 2027.

Why can’t we trade a top prospect for a 3+ fWAR player now? See the endless loop we are in?

Can you trade for a 3+ fWAR player with 4-5 years of team control? That's what you really need. You need to add young, cost controlled talent that's going to be with you for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and not cost a mint, not just talent. What team is going to give up that player?

And can you trade for them without giving up Wetherholt or Doyle in the process?

They don’t have to have come with 4+ years of control. We can extend acquisitions same as our own homegrown players. Like we did with Matt Holiday. Though that was more of a free agent re-signing situation, but you can still retain them. It’s just going to cost some money sooner than later, and that’s probably a deal breaker for the DeWitt family fortune preservationists.

The reason you have to develop young, cost controlled talent is because it is cost controlled. You're developing "value" - production greater than payroll cost - which you desperately need if a $180 million roster is going to compete with others that are $250, $275, $300 million.

If you propose to trade prospects for other young, cost controlled players, fine. But if you are trading prospects for guys you are going to have to pay at full market value rates in two years, you aren't achieving the same objective - you aren't getting "value" anymore.

So outside acquisitions won’t accept extensions? Only homegrown players? You’re a goal post mover.

And payroll doesn’t have to be $180 million. It exceeded that by a lot during Mo’s tenure.

[CorneliusWolfe]

My perspective is a rebuild can involve spending on superstar players. Rebuild does not have to mean cutting payroll $100m. That is a choice by a cheap owner. Just like it will be the fans choice not to pay $ to watch a AAA roster. What will draw fans to a bad team? A future HOF player like Tarik Skubal or many others. I went to 1 game last year. Why? It was the Dodger and I found cheap seats to see legit superstars. That was the point of the post.

Attendance = multiple great players Not Mason Winn types. 30 plus HR types.

Agreed, though I personally like Winn and find great defense that robs hits just as or more exciting as great hitting.

For some reason some just can’t comprehend and correlate the increased value and revenue from the draw created by great players. Fans want to see great players, not role players, wannabes, or gonna-be’s.

[mattmitchl44]

For the 1 millionth time, I and many others think a rebuild plan can and should be dynamic and value incremental improvements instead of relying on a worst-to-first instant evolution.

I don't expect they are going to go "worst to first." Far from it.

I expect they are going to have a sub-.500 season in 2026. Then as Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, etc. come on line in 2026/2027, and we hopefully see more development from other players, I expect they could be close to 80 wins in 2027.

Then I'd expect them to ramp up by adding some talent by FA after the 2027 season. By 2028, an 85-89 win team that could make the postseason.

With more additions/development after 2028, by 2029 a 90+ roster than can really be a serious WS contender again.

A plan that can be accomplished in 3 years with barely even trying could probably be done sooner with some real effort and persistence.

It's going to take time to matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle (and/or Mathews, Baez, etc.) to the majors AND get them to producing at a 3+ fWAR level. You can't rush that faster than it is going to happen. Right now the priority should be on subtracting Donovan from the 2026 roster to add another ML-ready Wetherholt/Doyle prospect to give them another bite at the apple to getting 3+ fWAR players on the 2028/2029 roster.

That's the rate limiting step in all this that makes 2028, 2029 the objective, not 2026, 2027.

Why can’t we trade a top prospect for a 3+ fWAR player now? See the endless loop we are in?

Can you trade for a 3+ fWAR player with 4-5 years of team control? That's what you really need. You need to add young, cost controlled talent that's going to be with you for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and not cost a mint, not just talent. What team is going to give up that player?

And can you trade for them without giving up Wetherholt or Doyle in the process?

They don’t have to have come with 4+ years of control. We can extend acquisitions same as our own homegrown players. Like we did with Matt Holiday. Though that was more of a free agent re-signing situation, but you can still retain them. It’s just going to cost some money sooner than later, and that’s probably a deal breaker for the DeWitt family fortune preservationists.

The reason you have to develop young, cost controlled talent is because it is cost controlled. You're developing "value" - production greater than payroll cost - which you desperately need if a $180 million roster is going to compete with others that are $250, $275, $300 million.

If you propose to trade prospects for other young, cost controlled players, fine. But if you are trading prospects for guys you are going to have to pay at full market value rates in two years, you aren't achieving the same objective - you aren't getting "value" anymore.

So outside acquisitions won’t accept extensions? Only homegrown players? You’re a goal post mover.

And payroll doesn’t have to be $180 million. It exceeded that by a lot during Mo’s tenure.

If you're trading for a guy who has only two years of team control left, the team has much less leverage to get an extension done at a team friendly price point. If the player is already assured of ARB-2 money, to your prior point, they are much more in a position to "bet on themselves" and want to go year-to-year and get to FA than sign a long term extension. You're not going to get a much below market deal if you are trying to sign a guy to a five year contract that covers ARB-2, ARB-3, FA, FA, FA years, or ARB-3, FA, FA, FA, FA years.

Per Cots:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

[2ninr]

How many superstars are there?

Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried
New York Mets: Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr..
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh.
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes.
Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Mason Miller
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte.
Houston Astros: Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader.
Texas Rangers: Corey Seager.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet.
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley.
Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero.
Las Vegas As: Nick Kurtz.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Churio, Jacob Misiorowski
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez.
Load Angeles Angels: Mike Trout.
Washington Nationals: James Wood.

Just a partial list off top of my head. All all star top 3 at position. And no Winn will never be anywhere close.

Winn is already close. GG SS . Willing to play without being 100%. He gets back to the approach at the plate he had in 24 he is a superstar just as much as most of those guys on your list.

Must be a top 5 SS bat along with his defense. Was 18th last year. Long way to go

I get your point that we need a few superstar players and at the present time we don't have that. But Winn will get there. Where is the rule that he has to be a top 5 offensive ss? It's ok to have your opinion-I certainly have mine. We could have a lengthy thread debating what qualifies as a superstar shortstop.

To be an all star he has to hit better than 18th at position, superstars make multiple all star games. Defense/Arm is 25% hit for average 25% power 25% running 25%. He has 2/4. Need to either hit .300 or 25HR consistently to be a superstar. Right now I would say he is closer to defensive specialist than superstar level
Like Witt Jr,

We've seen what happens when he tries to hit 25 homeruns. Let's abandon that approach. He can run and definitely approach .300. And I agree he needs to do it for a couple of years.

[mattmitchl44]

Regarding Winn, he's put up 3.6 fWAR and 3.5 fWAR the last two seasons at ages 22 and 23.

An "All-Star" level player, per FG, is a 4-5 fWAR player.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

It's well within belief that Winn, as he reaches his prime, will be a 4+ fWAR "All-Star" level player.

[CorneliusWolfe]

For the 1 millionth time, I and many others think a rebuild plan can and should be dynamic and value incremental improvements instead of relying on a worst-to-first instant evolution.

I don't expect they are going to go "worst to first." Far from it.

I expect they are going to have a sub-.500 season in 2026. Then as Wetherholt, Doyle, Mathews, etc. come on line in 2026/2027, and we hopefully see more development from other players, I expect they could be close to 80 wins in 2027.

Then I'd expect them to ramp up by adding some talent by FA after the 2027 season. By 2028, an 85-89 win team that could make the postseason.

With more additions/development after 2028, by 2029 a 90+ roster than can really be a serious WS contender again.

A plan that can be accomplished in 3 years with barely even trying could probably be done sooner with some real effort and persistence.

It's going to take time to matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle (and/or Mathews, Baez, etc.) to the majors AND get them to producing at a 3+ fWAR level. You can't rush that faster than it is going to happen. Right now the priority should be on subtracting Donovan from the 2026 roster to add another ML-ready Wetherholt/Doyle prospect to give them another bite at the apple to getting 3+ fWAR players on the 2028/2029 roster.

That's the rate limiting step in all this that makes 2028, 2029 the objective, not 2026, 2027.

Why can’t we trade a top prospect for a 3+ fWAR player now? See the endless loop we are in?

Can you trade for a 3+ fWAR player with 4-5 years of team control? That's what you really need. You need to add young, cost controlled talent that's going to be with you for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and not cost a mint, not just talent. What team is going to give up that player?

And can you trade for them without giving up Wetherholt or Doyle in the process?

They don’t have to have come with 4+ years of control. We can extend acquisitions same as our own homegrown players. Like we did with Matt Holiday. Though that was more of a free agent re-signing situation, but you can still retain them. It’s just going to cost some money sooner than later, and that’s probably a deal breaker for the DeWitt family fortune preservationists.

The reason you have to develop young, cost controlled talent is because it is cost controlled. You're developing "value" - production greater than payroll cost - which you desperately need if a $180 million roster is going to compete with others that are $250, $275, $300 million.

If you propose to trade prospects for other young, cost controlled players, fine. But if you are trading prospects for guys you are going to have to pay at full market value rates in two years, you aren't achieving the same objective - you aren't getting "value" anymore.

So outside acquisitions won’t accept extensions? Only homegrown players? You’re a goal post mover.

And payroll doesn’t have to be $180 million. It exceeded that by a lot during Mo’s tenure.

If you're trading for a guy who has only two years of team control left, the team has much less leverage to get an extension done at a team friendly price point. If the player is already assured of ARB-2 money, to your prior point, they are much more in a position to "bet on themselves" and want to go year-to-year and get to FA than sign a long term extension. You're not going to get a much below market deal if you are trying to sign a guy to a five year contract that covers ARB-2, ARB-3, FA, FA, FA years, or ARB-3, FA, FA, FA, FA years.

Per Cots:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.

Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.

Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.

[mattmitchl44]

Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.

Yes, you can pay ~8 guys full market value. But you can also get those guys by signing them as FAs and not trading prospects to do so.

My point is, when I say they need ~18 Pre-ARB and ARB year players, if you are trading for a guy who you have to almost immediately pay a full market value contract to, you aren't filling one of those needed "value" spot AND you are trading away prospects who could.

If you are trading for a 3+ fWAR player who does have 4-5 years of team control left, then at least you are getting back a "value" player for all the prospects you are giving up.

Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.

As I said, if you would check the Cot's link:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.

I care because:

(1) I know that the Cardinals are never going to have the resources of the big market teams and

(2) I would like to see the Cardinals win another World Series.

I want to see them stop sabotaging their chance by continuing to pursue a failed strategy that they've done for the past decade. The Cardinals haven't been failing just because of Mozeliak, they failed because the fundamental strategy he was given/pursuing was flawed.

If the Cardinals are going to win another WS any time soon, they have to attack them problem of roster construction from the direction of a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. (and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it BETTER) than from the direction of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc.

[zuck698]

Point 1 - “Less” leverage, not no leverage. It will cost more, but can be done at a non-crippling amount for the select few right players. Not EVERY single salary has to be extremely team friendly. It’s ok to pay a few guys fairly and maybe even one or two at market. The farm is there to offset such costs. There are many more roster slots to please you with league minimum salaries.

Yes, you can pay ~8 guys full market value. But you can also get those guys by signing them as FAs and not trading prospects to do so.

My point is, when I say they need ~18 Pre-ARB and ARB year players, if you are trading for a guy who you have to almost immediately pay a full market value contract to, you aren't filling one of those needed "value" spot AND you are trading away prospects who could.

If you are trading for a 3+ fWAR player who does have 4-5 years of team control left, then at least you are getting back a "value" player for all the prospects you are giving up.

Point 2 - We were talking payroll, which has reached 215 million with in-season additions - and you KNOW this, so you conveniently move the goal posts again to include “opening day”. Words matter.

As I said, if you would check the Cot's link:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... cardinals/

Neither the Cardinals Opening Day nor year end payrolls have ever exceeded $180 million.

Side question - Why do YOU CARE so [fork]ing much??! I don’t even think it is Bloom’s or ownerships plan to be THAT cheap, but to live under a reasonable budget. But any thread that discusses options other than your stupid fangraphs WAR plan, you make it your life’s work and duty to (bleep) all over it and filibuster every poster who respectfully disagrees or is just having some fun with the discussion.

You do realize no one here has a truly informed opinion on most of these matters, including both of us, right? We’re playing armchair GMs and managers for fun.

I care because:

(1) I know that the Cardinals are never going to have the resources of the big market teams and

(2) I would like to see the Cardinals win another World Series.

I want to see them stop sabotaging their chance by continuing to pursue a failed strategy that they've done for the past decade. The Cardinals haven't been failing just because of Mozeliak, they failed because the fundamental strategy he was given/pursuing was flawed.

If the Cardinals are going to win another WS any time soon, they have to attack them problem of roster construction from the direction of a Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, etc. (and then ultimately spend more money than those teams to do it BETTER) than from the direction of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, etc.

I would feel a lot better about your plans Matt, if either one of those 3 teams had ever won a World Series! They have not. Why are you so convinced that their strategy is the way to go when it has never worked for them? I don't expect you will have an answer different than your usual analytics but maybe you will surprise me.