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craviduce wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 07:00 am https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/641780 ... -arquette/

Keith Law's new mock

Eli Willits, SS, Ft.Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.)

Law says the Cards would take any of his first 4 ahead of Willits, which includes Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday. He also says Witherspoon and Aloy (surprised by that one ~ College SS if we decide against a high school SS) could land at #5

I wonder what Law has heard, he has decent connections.

Aloy projections are similar to the Irish kid. They both have solid builds, will gain some power, and have very
good balance and weight shift at the plate. Something the bigger kids IMO are behind them on. Arquette and LaViolette.

This draft is wide open, partly due to my own ignorance on this group, I've been in Helena this year.
A player falling into the top of 2nd will not surprise me in the slightest. Such as Petry, Taylor, Conrad, Belyeu, or my bias
some of the bigger framed pitchers.

StlMike1969 wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 11:50 am My question is why are there so many guys at the top of the draft board that are not performing well this season, and those that are doing well not considered top picks. You have some big strong college pitchers with 2.5 ERA's or less as seniors and will be eligible not being even talked about.

This is why a lot of drafts end up yielding a Spencer Strider (4th Rd) and/or Jacob DeGrom (9th). It's really easy to whiff and extremely difficult, and involves a LOT of luck to hit in these drafts.

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 13:47 pm

StlMike1969 wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 11:50 am My question is why are there so many guys at the top of the draft board that are not performing well this season, and those that are doing well not considered top picks. You have some big strong college pitchers with 2.5 ERA's or less as seniors and will be eligible not being even talked about.

This is why a lot of drafts end up yielding a Spencer Strider (4th Rd) and/or Jacob DeGrom (9th). It's really easy to whiff and extremely difficult, and involves a LOT of luck to hit in these drafts.

There are lot of question marks at the top of this draft. Including my preferred pick for the Cardinals at #5, Seth Hernandez. Had Wetherholt been in this draft he would have likely been the #1 pick.

That's an interesting statement, actually. Where would JJ go in this year's draft?

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:00 pm That's an interesting statement, actually. Where would JJ go in this year's draft?

Top 2

Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

I'd love to have that comp pic for this year's draft. And I think Noot is fine, but i've never been as high on him as some others...but, I think i'd want the comp pic and like a top 3 prospect. I'm also an aggressive negotiator

kyace wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:11 pm Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

Desperate enough for Sloan? they could keep the compensation pick especially this year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-m ... ne-12-2025

MLB.com's new mock. Callis' turn this week.

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif)

kyace wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:11 pm Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

I’m not opposed to trading nootbar if the price is right but it would need to be a clear overpay. He still has 2.5 years of team control, is just now entering his prime and it would leave a big hole in our outfield until next season at the earliest when church is hopefully ready.

I would want their comp pick, either Sloan (#9 prospect in their system) or Cijntje (#8) and a risky low level pitching prospect with upside as a throw in (Cole Phillips?)

craviduce wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 08:39 am https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-m ... ne-12-2025

MLB.com's new mock. Callis' turn this week.

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif)

Yeah, I hope this one doesn't happen

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 09:33 am

craviduce wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 08:39 am https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-m ... ne-12-2025

MLB.com's new mock. Callis' turn this week.

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif)

Yeah, I hope this one doesn't happen

ditto

Frontierman wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 08:52 am

kyace wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:11 pm Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

I’m not opposed to trading nootbar if the price is right but it would need to be a clear overpay. He still has 2.5 years of team control, is just now entering his prime and it would leave a big hole in our outfield until next season at the earliest when church is hopefully ready.

I would want their comp pick, either Sloan (#9 prospect in their system) or Cijntje (#8) and a risky low level pitching prospect with upside as a throw in (Cole Phillips?)

that would be a massive overpay on the Mariner's part....3-4 WAR projection per year on Noot if he stays healthy...if. For Sloan and the M's 2024 1st round pick Cinjntje, plus their 30ish overall comp pick this season? They'll want more if they don't hang up the phone...and why would we be calling? They should be calling us if they want Noot...if we're calling, then we lose all leverage, and we pay a lot more, but get their Comp Pick, plus a DSL pitcher they signed for $200,000 that K's at 15% rates, but walks at %15 and leads the DSL in HBP. That outcome is more likely....the win in this scenario is the Pick...not the additional player


by the time, Padilla, Rodriguez, Wetherholt, our #5 pick are here and ready to contribute towards a Winning Program, Nootbaar and Donovan will be in their FA years....their cost for their production vs. our new Low Budget, won't make sense. Trade him, don't keep him if some team won't pay our MLB the Show asking price

kyace wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:11 pm Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

Love this idea. IMO, Noot has plateaued. Need more than .350 OBP and 15 HRs, avg. speed from LF. If he could play CF, that would work. Trade him use LF to play Donny and put Gorman at 2B. Need see give Gorman consistent ABs rest of 2025. Need to make an informed decision on him for 2026. Wasn’t this a stated goal of the “reset?”

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 09:33 am

craviduce wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 08:39 am https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-m ... ne-12-2025

MLB.com's new mock. Callis' turn this week.

Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif)

Yeah, I hope this one doesn't happen

he hit for power in March, then fell off after that. Still hit over .300 on a national stage, the Defense is the best in class, the arm strength is best in class....and he did this on a team with the hardest HS schedule in the nation. I think they faced and beat 6 or 7 Top 25 teams in the nation this year. And he was the talk of the town that the North Carolina super invitational in April. Willits and Holliday became sexier picks...

@ #5, we hope we can do a bit better, but I wouldn't bemoan the pick either. The top of the draft is full of 50/80 graded college players at or near their ceiling, and 45-50/80 HS players near their floor still trying to identify their ceiling.

We as fans need to find a comfort zone with the picks...like 6-8 picks we'd live with...if you can narrow it down more, then go for it....but I don't think we can say like several of us did last year "Bazzana or Wetherholt".... then several of us said "Burns or Smith, need the FOTR"....it was usually 2 picks we could live with....it's not working out that way this season....too much muck, and the cream hasn't risen.

Pick your 6-8, you'll feel better once the draft commences

craviduce wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 09:48 am

Frontierman wrote: ↑13 Jun 2025 08:52 am

kyace wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 14:11 pm Man I wish we could snag a comp pick before the draft. Seattle is getting desperate, what would it take to get them to move their comp pick at #35? They had interest in Nootbaar previously and they need outfield help now. Would you trade Noot for the comp pick and a prospect in the 10 to 15 range? Seattle’s system is deep so it would be a decent prospect still.

I’m not opposed to trading nootbar if the price is right but it would need to be a clear overpay. He still has 2.5 years of team control, is just now entering his prime and it would leave a big hole in our outfield until next season at the earliest when church is hopefully ready.

I would want their comp pick, either Sloan (#9 prospect in their system) or Cijntje (#8) and a risky low level pitching prospect with upside as a throw in (Cole Phillips?)

that would be a massive overpay on the Mariner's part....3-4 WAR projection per year on Noot if he stays healthy...if. For Sloan and the M's 2024 1st round pick Cinjntje, plus their 30ish overall comp pick this season? They'll want more if they don't hang up the phone...and why would we be calling? They should be calling us if they want Noot...if we're calling, then we lose all leverage, and we pay a lot more, but get their Comp Pick, plus a DSL pitcher they signed for $200,000 that K's at 15% rates, but walks at %15 and leads the DSL in HBP. That outcome is more likely....the win in this scenario is the Pick...not the additional player


by the time, Padilla, Rodriguez, Wetherholt, our #5 pick are here and ready to contribute towards a Winning Program, Nootbaar and Donovan will be in their FA years....their cost for their production vs. our new Low Budget, won't make sense. Trade him, don't keep him if some team won't pay our MLB the Show asking price

I agree with you. It would be a massive overpay but that’s kind of the point. I’d only be willing to deal nootbar if a team comes calling willing to overpay. I threw Cole Phillips name out there since he’s at the bottom of their top 30 and seems to have the profile of a guy that likely won’t pan out but you’re probably correct that he’s too valuable as a “PTBNL” type of throw in. I’d also be willing to throw matz in there if that’s what it takes to get some high end prospects back.

This will probably be another 80-85 win season but I’m not ready to give up on 2026 just yet. If we are to make the playoffs next year I don’t know how we do that without nootbar in the outfield. With church and Baez starting to make noise in the upper minors, hopefully noot will be more expendable by 2027 though.