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CCard wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 06:59 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 04:21 am

CCard wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 21:24 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm

CCard wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 11:40 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑04 Oct 2025 06:25 am

CCard wrote: ↑04 Oct 2025 06:20 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.

Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.

That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL

The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.

It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.

Again, everyone agrees that the Cardinals - eventually - have to get back to spending at a rate where they have typically been, around 10th or 11th in MLB. But without the necessary critical mass of young talent, trying to spend to that level right now just gets them to a slightly better level of mediocrity, not a 90, 92, 95 win team that can be truly competitive.

So, no, they don't ALWAYS have to spend to that level - they have to spend to that level when they are actually ready to "win now" because they have critical mass of young talent in place as the foundation which they can add to with a few, high priced veterans.

If history has taught us anything it's that the goal is to reach the playoffs. Once there anything can happen. The Cards weren't favored in any of their world series wins since probably the 60's. Yet there are the trophy's. This juggernaut building you and others lust after is a figment. First, to get the talent you have to lose and lose and lose. Secondly, if you draft great, they still have to develop and reach the major's relatively uniformly. We know that's not common. Thirdly, you have a small window before you have to do it all over again and hope for the best. Or, bear with me here, you could develop and sign enough talent to get you to the dance and see what happens. I prefer the playoffs year in and year out as opposed to the regularly scheduled losing. Why would anyone but a cheapskate do that to the fan base? I know the Mets didn't make it in, but give me an owner like the Mets any day. Or the Dodgers, or the Padres, or the Phillies. At least they are willing to spend to increase talent levels enough to try to make the playoffs instead of some sob story about how there isn't enough coaches in the minor leagues. Blah

NYCardsFan wrote: ↑03 Oct 2025 13:02 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Fangraphs defines All Star production as roughly 4-5 fWAR (or greater). The last homegrown Cardinals position player to achieve >= 4 fWAR in multiple seasons was Matt Carpenter (he did it 4 times), and he matriculated in 2012. So it's been 13 years since the Cardinals have developed a player with multi-year All Star caliber production, though they have had a few players reach that AS-level for a single season (Edman, O'Neill, and Pham). Before Carpenter, you have to go all the way back to Pujols and Molina (matriculating in 2001 and 2004, respectively).

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 09:17 am

CCard wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 06:59 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑07 Oct 2025 04:21 am

CCard wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 21:24 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 18:36 pm

CCard wrote: ↑06 Oct 2025 11:40 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑04 Oct 2025 06:25 am

CCard wrote: ↑04 Oct 2025 06:20 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑03 Oct 2025 12:07 pm When can they develop a cost controlled ~5+ fWAR position player and ~4+ fWAR starting pitcher to build around?

The Cardinals have been developing some (but maybe not enough) complementary talent in young position players and SPs who are 2-3 fWAR players. What they haven't done is develop position players who would be in the ~Top 20 of all MLB players or pitchers who would be in the ~Top 15 of all MLB SPs. They have to have a couple of top end talent players who they aren't paying $25, $30, $35, etc. million a year for. They can't assemble enough talent if all of their top end players are Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gray type veterans who they are sinking ~35-40% of their payroll in.

Identifying, acquiring, and developing at least a couple of cost controlled top end talent players is probably the Cardinals single biggest need as part of this rebuild.

Because that's what playoff teams do. That's sarcasm. It would be great to have a young superstar but they don't grow on trees. Weatherholt may fit that bill but he could just as easily flop. Waiting and losing is not the optimal situation for fans and no guarantee of success. We've been down this road before though and you're going to believe what you want. A payroll of around $200 million gives this team a fighting chance with the right signings. The fans deserve it. Imagine 1 TOTR starter to pair with Gray, one big rbi bat in the outfield and 1-2 top relievers. This team would be in the playoffs without Weatherholt. It can easily be done if the purse strings are loosened.

Or if/when that group fails because there isn't enough present, cost controlled depth, they could tie themselves to another several years of expensive, declining players (like Arenado, Goldschmidt, Gray, etc.) and doom their ability to compete for multiple additional seasons.

That's why the Yankee's have so many Championships. Because they developed cheap cost controlled talent. LOL

The Cardinals, with a payroll in the best of circumstances at least $100 million less than the Yankees, can't seek to win the way the Yankees do.

It has to be competitive though. You can't spend a like a cheapskate and expect to be competitive. They should always have a top 10 payroll. They win, they draw 3 million. Spend the money on talent to be competitive.

Again, everyone agrees that the Cardinals - eventually - have to get back to spending at a rate where they have typically been, around 10th or 11th in MLB. But without the necessary critical mass of young talent, trying to spend to that level right now just gets them to a slightly better level of mediocrity, not a 90, 92, 95 win team that can be truly competitive.

So, no, they don't ALWAYS have to spend to that level - they have to spend to that level when they are actually ready to "win now" because they have critical mass of young talent in place as the foundation which they can add to with a few, high priced veterans.

If history has taught us anything it's that the goal is to reach the playoffs. Once there anything can happen. The Cards weren't favored in any of their world series wins since probably the 60's. Yet there are the trophy's. This juggernaut building you and others lust after is a figment. First, to get the talent you have to lose and lose and lose. Secondly, if you draft great, they still have to develop and reach the major's relatively uniformly. We know that's not common. Thirdly, you have a small window before you have to do it all over again and hope for the best. Or, bear with me here, you could develop and sign enough talent to get you to the dance and see what happens. I prefer the playoffs year in and year out as opposed to the regularly scheduled losing. Why would anyone but a cheapskate do that to the fan base? I know the Mets didn't make it in, but give me an owner like the Mets any day. Or the Dodgers, or the Padres, or the Phillies. At least they are willing to spend to increase talent levels enough to try to make the playoffs instead of some sob story about how there isn't enough coaches in the minor leagues. Blah

And I prefer a strategic approach which at least gives them the chance to develop a roster which can win 92, 95, etc. games and be a Top 3 roster in the NL - giving them a better chance of winning through to another WS title - than settling for winning 86 or 87 games to sneak in as a wild card and hope for the best.

I'd rather they be a 95 win team for five years, then a 75 win team for five years than be an 85-87 win team for 10 years.