The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

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Cusecards
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Cusecards »

ME-ville obviously follows the game.
And he does formulate and inject a lot of solid opinions.
But he is clearly a narcissist and can’t resist from constantly patting himself on the back and providing his resume on a daily basis.
Not sure why? A desperate need for attention?
Who knows?
I come here to interact with other posters. And of course we can agree to disagree.
As for ME-ville?? When he stops his nauseating self promotion I will gladly interact and enjoy discussing baseball with him.
ClassicO
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by ClassicO »

Melville wrote: 30 Sep 2025 19:14 pm
Thank you for your kind, thoughtful, and highly informed post above.
Allow me to address your Herrera comment.
I have made no changes in my analysis of him.
I have said correctly for 4 years that the team needed to find him a new position - his defense, arm, and game calling ability at catcher simply is not good enough.
Also, I have noted his BA and OBP upside many times.
I have long questioned his power potential.
Still do - since there are only 4 weeks of HR power demonstrated over the past 4 years.
But data is data.
He did show enough power to merit a longer look next season.
A team with very little power simply cannot afford to trade away any right now.
Data says give him more time.
Hmm. ‪You remember what you said when he struggled…

Melville‬
Post
25 Aug 2025 22:40 pm

“Herrera's problem isn't August.
He problem is he just isn't very good.”
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

imetsatchelpaige wrote: 01 Oct 2025 13:25 pm Interesting.
But I do not get trading Matthews, who has huge upside at a position we must get better at.
Pls explain why and what a projected return looks like.
Mathews is a Top 5 prospect - but is expendable since he is now sandwiched between Doyle and Henderson (who is narrowing the gap quickly).
Mautz also showed well in 2025.
The redundancy at one spot (in this case LH starting pitching prospects) makes one expendable and Mathews is the clear choice.
This is EXACTLY the type of trade piece who has the most value - this is who teams target when trading an MLB player with a couple of years of control remaining.
Which is why I used the Alcantara example.
The Cardinals are actually in a position to benefit from this scenario in more ways than one.
They can trade from their stock of catchers - and Bernal would bring excellent return.
Top 10 prospect Padilla at SS is another.
Given how young Winn, Saggese, and Wetherholt are, and the presence of J. Baez in the minors, Padilla can be moved.
That is how it works.
Think of it this way.
If STL trades Nootbaar (4 years after I first correctly advised) with 2 years of control remaining, what might they value given Bloom's directive?
A Top 10 prospect who can fill either near term or long term needs.
Other teams are no different.
Fact is, with all of the current MLB players and the prospects I have listed at various points in this thread, STL is in a very, very good spot to pt together very attractive trade packages to make the 3 necessary acquisitions.
Mo would be far too timid and afraid to take the required risks.
I think Bloom could be different.
We shall see.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Hoosier59 »

With most of the Cardinals top pitching prospects being left handed, it’s pretty obvious they won’t all have a place on the Major League team. It would make sense for at least one of them, if not two to be traded to add a cost controlled, high talent player. Now whether that’s Mathews or not I’m not sure. I would prefer to keep him, as I think he has a higher upside, than say Hansen, but other teams will most likely think that way too. So, I guess it would depend on player that is acquired.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

Hoosier59 wrote: 01 Oct 2025 19:14 pm With most of the Cardinals top pitching prospects being left handed, it’s pretty obvious they won’t all have a place on the Major League team. It would make sense for at least one of them, if not two to be traded to add a cost controlled, high talent player. Now whether that’s Mathews or not I’m not sure. I would prefer to keep him, as I think he has a higher upside, than say Hansen, but other teams will most likely think that way too. So, I guess it would depend on player that is acquired.
One of Super Slo Mo's greatest weakness was falling in love with his own prospects, and he was terrified of seeing one succeed elsewhere if traded.
Mathews is one of the most obvious trade pieces in the entire organization.
Doyle is ahead of him, with Henderson behind and closing fast.
And another crop behind that group.
Other than Doyle, trading Mathews would bring the most return of the LH pitching prospects and would not negatively impact the STL organization over the next 2 years.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Hoosier59 »

I agree that he would probably bring the most back in return, but that’s exactly why we should probably keep him.we need young pitching too desperately to trade away one of our best possibilities of being a #1, or #2.
We have other options, whose ceilings aren’t as high, but still would be coveted by other teams. I think one of those guys could still net us what we need.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

Hoosier59 wrote: 01 Oct 2025 21:24 pm I agree that he would probably bring the most back in return, but that’s exactly why we should probably keep him.we need young pitching too desperately to trade away one of our best possibilities of being a #1, or #2.
We have other options, whose ceilings aren’t as high, but still would be coveted by other teams. I think one of those guys could still net us what we need.
Respect your perspective, as always.
But the more you give, the more you get.
And STL must be in a "get more" mode right now.
They have little choice but to trade some high quality pieces from areas of depth to obtain high quality pieces in areas of want.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

So, let's put a big, beautiful bow on this perfect analysis, pulling it all together.
Catcher: Pages, Crooks
Infield: Gorman, Winn, Wetherholt, Contreras
Outfield: Donovan, Scott, ASG RIGHT FIELDER ACQUISITION.
DH: Burleson, Herrea - with both taking added reps in the outfield and 1B.
Plenty of PA's to go around taking into consideration matchups and scheduled days off - and it puts a solid bat on the bench every day to leverage as needed based on game circumstances.
Saggese or Fermin is utility guy, Church is the CF backup.
Rotation is Gray, ACQUIRED #1/#2 WITH 2 YEARS OF CONTROL, Liberatore, McGreevy, and #5 ACQUISITION (with 2 possible ways to go there).
Leahy tries to unseat someone at the back end or heads back to BP.
Svanson, O'Reilly, Romero, Graceffo - possibly Leahy.
Shuttle fills the other 3.
TRADE PIECES: Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as Bernal, Mathews, and Padilla from the TOP 10 prospects list. Hence and C. Davis certainly fit in the mix as well.
Also, it leaves one more LH bat on the roster (Donovan, Gorman, Burleson, or Scott) available as a trade piece next July, as well as Herrera from the right side - all dependent on individual performance and the status of the team when that time arrives.
Perfect balance of short term and long term strategic solution.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
12xu
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by 12xu »

Melville wrote: 02 Oct 2025 19:07 pm So, let's put a big, beautiful bow on this perfect analysis, pulling it all together.
Catcher: Pages, Crooks
Infield: Gorman, Winn, Wetherholt, Contreras
Outfield: Donovan, Scott, ASG RIGHT FIELDER ACQUISITION.
DH: Burleson, Herrea - with both taking added reps in the outfield and 1B.
Plenty of PA's to go around taking into consideration matchups and scheduled days off - and it puts a solid bat on the bench every day to leverage as needed based on game circumstances.
Saggese or Fermin is utility guy, Church is the CF backup.
Rotation is Gray, ACQUIRED #1/#2 WITH 2 YEARS OF CONTROL, Liberatore, McGreevy, and #5 ACQUISITION (with 2 possible ways to go there).
Leahy tries to unseat someone at the back end or heads back to BP.
Svanson, O'Reilly, Romero, Graceffo - possibly Leahy.
Shuttle fills the other 3.
TRADE PIECES: Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as Bernal, Mathews, and Padilla from the TOP 10 prospects list. Hence and C. Davis certainly fit in the mix as well.
Also, it leaves one more LH bat on the roster (Donovan, Gorman, Burleson, or Scott) available as a trade piece next July, as well as Herrera from the right side - all dependent on individual performance and the status of the team when that time arrives.
Perfect balance of short term and long term strategic solution.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
One problem with your suggestions is that DeWitt is not going to pay for any FA who meet the All Star RF or the #1 or #2 starting pitcher you claim they need. The other problem is that Noot, Walker, Saggese, Bernal, Mathews, and Padilla are not going to fetch both of those needed players. You could possibly acquire one of those mentioned with that group.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by imetsatchelpaige »

Melville wrote: 01 Oct 2025 21:33 pm
Hoosier59 wrote: 01 Oct 2025 21:24 pm I agree that he would probably bring the most back in return, but that’s exactly why we should probably keep him.we need young pitching too desperately to trade away one of our best possibilities of being a #1, or #2.
We have other options, whose ceilings aren’t as high, but still would be coveted by other teams. I think one of those guys could still net us what we need.
Respect your perspective, as always.
But the more you give, the more you get.
And STL must be in a "get more" mode right now.
They have little choice but to trade some high quality pieces from areas of depth to obtain high quality pieces in areas of want.
I found both perspectives interesting.
Melville, thanks for explaining your thinking-appreciate it, and the very modest amount of self aggrandizement we had to wade through. Quite informative.
Hoosier, I am more aligned with your view.
But food for thought in both.
The best part of this board. People who get the game, watched it for a long time and have studied, fact based
perspectives (everything else aside).
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by ScotchMIrish »

Melville wrote: 30 Sep 2025 09:49 am It is too soon to determine the Bloom/DeWitt objective for 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps they drag payroll even lower, perhaps they want to scrape to the bare earth and start over.
But that isn't necessary.
If they desire for the team to win at least 85/86 games next year, and 90+ in years following, it can be accomplished quite easily.
The organization can be fixed in 30 days or less - and I am happy to provide the correct roadmap.
But strategic decision making can only be effective if based on current data.
So, let’s start there.
First, the adequate and the good.
The 2025 STL offense was almost exactly middle of the pack in both BA (.245 with .247 being the MLB midpoint) and OBP (.314 vs. .315 midpoint.)
Note concerning OBP – only Nootbaar (11%) and Gorman (12%) drew walks at an above average rate.
Strikeouts were not really an issue since the team was just 40 above the MLB midpoint for the entire season.
STL excelled at hitting doubles, ranking 10 best and a reason for optimism.
No significant issues in those metrics.
Now the bad.
29th in HR (only 4 players were on pace for 20+ HR per 600 PA’s (Contreras, Herrera, Gorman, Burleson).
30th in triples.
20th in SB, with only Scott surpassing 10 for the year.
Team was 7th worst at GIDP with 115 (Herrera worst by a wide margin with 20; Gorman best with just 1).
These facts dictate why the team was 19th in MLB in runs scored, and 12th out of 16 NL team.
The outfield was easily the primary issue for the offense: the 3 starters (Nootbaar/Scott/Walker) scored a pathetic 68, 54, and 40 runs, while “driving in” an even worse 48, 41, and 37.
As I alone was first and best to analyze and explain many years ago, the outfield is the area of horrific weakness and currently has zero adequate starters.
Next, let’s look at roster construction going into 2026, examining the 15 position players most likely under consideration for a roster spot.
LH – BURLESON, DONOVAN, WETHERHOLT, CROOKS, GORMAN, NOOTBAAR, SCOTT, CHURCH
RH – WALKER, PAGES, CONTRERAS, HERRERA, WINN, SAGGESE, FERMIN
4 outfielders, 8 infielders, 2 catchers, 1 with no real position.
What does the data establish?
The outfield is a disaster.
Overall, the lineup has not enough power, is too slow, has too many LH bats.
Here is the roster solution for 2026 and the correct off-season plan to achieve it:
The team simply cannot trade what little power it has, meaning Contreras (1B/DH), Burleson (1B, DH, RF), Gorman (3B/2B,1B), and Herrera (TBD) must be retained for 2026.
The team can ill afford to get even slower, so Scott must be retained in CF and be given another opportunity.
No discussion needed that Winn must return at SS - primarily for the glove but the bat is certainly more than adequate on a properly constructed roster.
A RH/LH tandem of Pages/Crooks at catcher is the most probable at that spot.
Herrera's power may or may not be real (he hit nearly 2/3 of his HR in just 4 weeks), but he needs to find a position, with outfield being the best option while rotating through DH appearances.
Wetherholt is going to play (2B is best option) and if he hits, he should belong at leadoff - but it will be wise to have insurance.
That leaves Nootbaar, Donovan, Church, Walker, Saggese, and Fermin as the question marks.
Here is the correct answer to each.
Trade Nootbaar.
Trade Walker.
Trade Saggese or Fermin, whichever is preferred by an acquiring team as part of a larger package.
Move Donovan to LF - and he doubles as infield insurance in the event of underperformance.
Church is a passable 5th outfielder - but a RH hitting bench CF option might be an upgrade (worth noting that Joshua Baez should get long looks in CF in Memphis to begin 2026).
This is the 100% correct answer with each of the current roster options.
But it leaves one critical need unmet.
The team simply must add a RH hitting, ASG quality, productive, middle order bat (3rd or 4th) outfield bat - as I alone have unerringly and consistently stated for 5+ years.
By shopping/packaging Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as 40-man roster fillers Pozo, Prieto, Koperniak, & Siani, along with prospects such as Bernal and C. Davis, there are plenty of trade pieces available (pitchers will be discussed later) to make that acquisition.
Finally, depending on a number of factors, this would potentially leave the team with one extra LH bat (Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Scott) to use as a trade piece in July to address needs which emerge before the trade deadline - but these 4 should be retained until then.
There you have it.
The 100% fully accurate plan (completely unbiased, of course), to address position player roster decisions for 2026 and beyond.
My 100% fully accurate plan for the pitching staff will likely be provided this evening.
If STL does precisely as I advise, the team will win 85+games next season.
I give my personal guarantee.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
We were 5 games over .500 this year at the all star break but didn't add. 85 was easily within reach.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

12xu wrote: 02 Oct 2025 19:56 pm
Melville wrote: 02 Oct 2025 19:07 pm So, let's put a big, beautiful bow on this perfect analysis, pulling it all together.
Catcher: Pages, Crooks
Infield: Gorman, Winn, Wetherholt, Contreras
Outfield: Donovan, Scott, ASG RIGHT FIELDER ACQUISITION.
DH: Burleson, Herrea - with both taking added reps in the outfield and 1B.
Plenty of PA's to go around taking into consideration matchups and scheduled days off - and it puts a solid bat on the bench every day to leverage as needed based on game circumstances.
Saggese or Fermin is utility guy, Church is the CF backup.
Rotation is Gray, ACQUIRED #1/#2 WITH 2 YEARS OF CONTROL, Liberatore, McGreevy, and #5 ACQUISITION (with 2 possible ways to go there).
Leahy tries to unseat someone at the back end or heads back to BP.
Svanson, O'Reilly, Romero, Graceffo - possibly Leahy.
Shuttle fills the other 3.
TRADE PIECES: Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as Bernal, Mathews, and Padilla from the TOP 10 prospects list. Hence and C. Davis certainly fit in the mix as well.
Also, it leaves one more LH bat on the roster (Donovan, Gorman, Burleson, or Scott) available as a trade piece next July, as well as Herrera from the right side - all dependent on individual performance and the status of the team when that time arrives.
Perfect balance of short term and long term strategic solution.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
One problem with your suggestions is that DeWitt is not going to pay for any FA who meet the All Star RF or the #1 or #2 starting pitcher you claim they need. The other problem is that Noot, Walker, Saggese, Bernal, Mathews, and Padilla are not going to fetch both of those needed players. You could possibly acquire one of those mentioned with that group.
The 4 of STL top 12 prospects I listed would bring a very, very good return.
Nootbaar, Walker, Hence, Saggese, Hence and Davis all have value in differing ways.
There is plenty of value there the secure a quality 2-year starter and a high ceiling outfielder also with 2-3 years of control remaining.
Bloom referenced signing a FA starter - and all that is needed is a 1 year deal.
The timeline is the critical element.
They need to acquire 2 players with 2 years of service and a 1 year FA.
The perfect strategy I have provided in this thread allows them to compete in the near term while building a long-term foundation for 90+ wins in 2027 and beyond - and all without surrendering critical pieces.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

ScotchMIrish wrote: 02 Oct 2025 20:24 pm
Melville wrote: 30 Sep 2025 09:49 am It is too soon to determine the Bloom/DeWitt objective for 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps they drag payroll even lower, perhaps they want to scrape to the bare earth and start over.
But that isn't necessary.
If they desire for the team to win at least 85/86 games next year, and 90+ in years following, it can be accomplished quite easily.
The organization can be fixed in 30 days or less - and I am happy to provide the correct roadmap.
But strategic decision making can only be effective if based on current data.
So, let’s start there.
First, the adequate and the good.
The 2025 STL offense was almost exactly middle of the pack in both BA (.245 with .247 being the MLB midpoint) and OBP (.314 vs. .315 midpoint.)
Note concerning OBP – only Nootbaar (11%) and Gorman (12%) drew walks at an above average rate.
Strikeouts were not really an issue since the team was just 40 above the MLB midpoint for the entire season.
STL excelled at hitting doubles, ranking 10 best and a reason for optimism.
No significant issues in those metrics.
Now the bad.
29th in HR (only 4 players were on pace for 20+ HR per 600 PA’s (Contreras, Herrera, Gorman, Burleson).
30th in triples.
20th in SB, with only Scott surpassing 10 for the year.
Team was 7th worst at GIDP with 115 (Herrera worst by a wide margin with 20; Gorman best with just 1).
These facts dictate why the team was 19th in MLB in runs scored, and 12th out of 16 NL team.
The outfield was easily the primary issue for the offense: the 3 starters (Nootbaar/Scott/Walker) scored a pathetic 68, 54, and 40 runs, while “driving in” an even worse 48, 41, and 37.
As I alone was first and best to analyze and explain many years ago, the outfield is the area of horrific weakness and currently has zero adequate starters.
Next, let’s look at roster construction going into 2026, examining the 15 position players most likely under consideration for a roster spot.
LH – BURLESON, DONOVAN, WETHERHOLT, CROOKS, GORMAN, NOOTBAAR, SCOTT, CHURCH
RH – WALKER, PAGES, CONTRERAS, HERRERA, WINN, SAGGESE, FERMIN
4 outfielders, 8 infielders, 2 catchers, 1 with no real position.
What does the data establish?
The outfield is a disaster.
Overall, the lineup has not enough power, is too slow, has too many LH bats.
Here is the roster solution for 2026 and the correct off-season plan to achieve it:
The team simply cannot trade what little power it has, meaning Contreras (1B/DH), Burleson (1B, DH, RF), Gorman (3B/2B,1B), and Herrera (TBD) must be retained for 2026.
The team can ill afford to get even slower, so Scott must be retained in CF and be given another opportunity.
No discussion needed that Winn must return at SS - primarily for the glove but the bat is certainly more than adequate on a properly constructed roster.
A RH/LH tandem of Pages/Crooks at catcher is the most probable at that spot.
Herrera's power may or may not be real (he hit nearly 2/3 of his HR in just 4 weeks), but he needs to find a position, with outfield being the best option while rotating through DH appearances.
Wetherholt is going to play (2B is best option) and if he hits, he should belong at leadoff - but it will be wise to have insurance.
That leaves Nootbaar, Donovan, Church, Walker, Saggese, and Fermin as the question marks.
Here is the correct answer to each.
Trade Nootbaar.
Trade Walker.
Trade Saggese or Fermin, whichever is preferred by an acquiring team as part of a larger package.
Move Donovan to LF - and he doubles as infield insurance in the event of underperformance.
Church is a passable 5th outfielder - but a RH hitting bench CF option might be an upgrade (worth noting that Joshua Baez should get long looks in CF in Memphis to begin 2026).
This is the 100% correct answer with each of the current roster options.
But it leaves one critical need unmet.
The team simply must add a RH hitting, ASG quality, productive, middle order bat (3rd or 4th) outfield bat - as I alone have unerringly and consistently stated for 5+ years.
By shopping/packaging Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as 40-man roster fillers Pozo, Prieto, Koperniak, & Siani, along with prospects such as Bernal and C. Davis, there are plenty of trade pieces available (pitchers will be discussed later) to make that acquisition.
Finally, depending on a number of factors, this would potentially leave the team with one extra LH bat (Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Scott) to use as a trade piece in July to address needs which emerge before the trade deadline - but these 4 should be retained until then.
There you have it.
The 100% fully accurate plan (completely unbiased, of course), to address position player roster decisions for 2026 and beyond.
My 100% fully accurate plan for the pitching staff will likely be provided this evening.
If STL does precisely as I advise, the team will win 85+games next season.
I give my personal guarantee.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
We were 5 games over .500 this year at the all star break but didn't add. 85 was easily within reach.
Exactly.
It CAN be done.
It isn't that much of a heavy lift.
Simply requires making the right decisions as to who to trade in order to fill 3 very specific needs for a brief 2-year period.
Melville
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by Melville »

imetsatchelpaige wrote: 02 Oct 2025 20:23 pm
Melville wrote: 01 Oct 2025 21:33 pm
Hoosier59 wrote: 01 Oct 2025 21:24 pm I agree that he would probably bring the most back in return, but that’s exactly why we should probably keep him.we need young pitching too desperately to trade away one of our best possibilities of being a #1, or #2.
We have other options, whose ceilings aren’t as high, but still would be coveted by other teams. I think one of those guys could still net us what we need.
Respect your perspective, as always.
But the more you give, the more you get.
And STL must be in a "get more" mode right now.
They have little choice but to trade some high quality pieces from areas of depth to obtain high quality pieces in areas of want.
I found both perspectives interesting.
Melville, thanks for explaining your thinking-appreciate it, and the very modest amount of self aggrandizement we had to wade through. Quite informative.
Hoosier, I am more aligned with your view.
But food for thought in both.
The best part of this board. People who get the game, watched it for a long time and have studied, fact based
perspectives (everything else aside).
As is true of you, I appreciate quality dialogue as well.
It is a great game - even when STL is not.
11WSChamps
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by 11WSChamps »

I've said the OF has been a disaster since Alan Craig got injured. So no you certainly weren't the first.

I've said for years the OF is a "disaster".

Your idea that the players you mentioned in a trade is going to bring an AS quality RH MOB OF'er is absurd.

Same for acquiring your rotation additions especially anyone with years of control.

A relatively cheap back end rotation piece may be acquired to eat innings but nothing earth shaking.

Gray, Matthews, Liberatore, McGreevy and either Pallante or Leahy will be the starters. If Matthews doesn't pan out in the spring then another low cost back end type may be signed.

Scott is never going to pan out in CF with our corners so anemic.

Burleson has to play somewhere and so does Wetherholt. Donovan could wind up at third once Arenado is dealt.

We've seen enough of Gorman and Walker at the ML level. Not happening move on.
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Re: The CORRECT plan to win 85 games next year and 90+ following.

Post by ScotchMIrish »

Melville wrote: 02 Oct 2025 20:29 pm
ScotchMIrish wrote: 02 Oct 2025 20:24 pm
Melville wrote: 30 Sep 2025 09:49 am It is too soon to determine the Bloom/DeWitt objective for 2026 and beyond.
Perhaps they drag payroll even lower, perhaps they want to scrape to the bare earth and start over.
But that isn't necessary.
If they desire for the team to win at least 85/86 games next year, and 90+ in years following, it can be accomplished quite easily.
The organization can be fixed in 30 days or less - and I am happy to provide the correct roadmap.
But strategic decision making can only be effective if based on current data.
So, let’s start there.
First, the adequate and the good.
The 2025 STL offense was almost exactly middle of the pack in both BA (.245 with .247 being the MLB midpoint) and OBP (.314 vs. .315 midpoint.)
Note concerning OBP – only Nootbaar (11%) and Gorman (12%) drew walks at an above average rate.
Strikeouts were not really an issue since the team was just 40 above the MLB midpoint for the entire season.
STL excelled at hitting doubles, ranking 10 best and a reason for optimism.
No significant issues in those metrics.
Now the bad.
29th in HR (only 4 players were on pace for 20+ HR per 600 PA’s (Contreras, Herrera, Gorman, Burleson).
30th in triples.
20th in SB, with only Scott surpassing 10 for the year.
Team was 7th worst at GIDP with 115 (Herrera worst by a wide margin with 20; Gorman best with just 1).
These facts dictate why the team was 19th in MLB in runs scored, and 12th out of 16 NL team.
The outfield was easily the primary issue for the offense: the 3 starters (Nootbaar/Scott/Walker) scored a pathetic 68, 54, and 40 runs, while “driving in” an even worse 48, 41, and 37.
As I alone was first and best to analyze and explain many years ago, the outfield is the area of horrific weakness and currently has zero adequate starters.
Next, let’s look at roster construction going into 2026, examining the 15 position players most likely under consideration for a roster spot.
LH – BURLESON, DONOVAN, WETHERHOLT, CROOKS, GORMAN, NOOTBAAR, SCOTT, CHURCH
RH – WALKER, PAGES, CONTRERAS, HERRERA, WINN, SAGGESE, FERMIN
4 outfielders, 8 infielders, 2 catchers, 1 with no real position.
What does the data establish?
The outfield is a disaster.
Overall, the lineup has not enough power, is too slow, has too many LH bats.
Here is the roster solution for 2026 and the correct off-season plan to achieve it:
The team simply cannot trade what little power it has, meaning Contreras (1B/DH), Burleson (1B, DH, RF), Gorman (3B/2B,1B), and Herrera (TBD) must be retained for 2026.
The team can ill afford to get even slower, so Scott must be retained in CF and be given another opportunity.
No discussion needed that Winn must return at SS - primarily for the glove but the bat is certainly more than adequate on a properly constructed roster.
A RH/LH tandem of Pages/Crooks at catcher is the most probable at that spot.
Herrera's power may or may not be real (he hit nearly 2/3 of his HR in just 4 weeks), but he needs to find a position, with outfield being the best option while rotating through DH appearances.
Wetherholt is going to play (2B is best option) and if he hits, he should belong at leadoff - but it will be wise to have insurance.
That leaves Nootbaar, Donovan, Church, Walker, Saggese, and Fermin as the question marks.
Here is the correct answer to each.
Trade Nootbaar.
Trade Walker.
Trade Saggese or Fermin, whichever is preferred by an acquiring team as part of a larger package.
Move Donovan to LF - and he doubles as infield insurance in the event of underperformance.
Church is a passable 5th outfielder - but a RH hitting bench CF option might be an upgrade (worth noting that Joshua Baez should get long looks in CF in Memphis to begin 2026).
This is the 100% correct answer with each of the current roster options.
But it leaves one critical need unmet.
The team simply must add a RH hitting, ASG quality, productive, middle order bat (3rd or 4th) outfield bat - as I alone have unerringly and consistently stated for 5+ years.
By shopping/packaging Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese or Fermin, as well as 40-man roster fillers Pozo, Prieto, Koperniak, & Siani, along with prospects such as Bernal and C. Davis, there are plenty of trade pieces available (pitchers will be discussed later) to make that acquisition.
Finally, depending on a number of factors, this would potentially leave the team with one extra LH bat (Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Scott) to use as a trade piece in July to address needs which emerge before the trade deadline - but these 4 should be retained until then.
There you have it.
The 100% fully accurate plan (completely unbiased, of course), to address position player roster decisions for 2026 and beyond.
My 100% fully accurate plan for the pitching staff will likely be provided this evening.
If STL does precisely as I advise, the team will win 85+games next season.
I give my personal guarantee.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.
We were 5 games over .500 this year at the all star break but didn't add. 85 was easily within reach.
Exactly.
It CAN be done.
It isn't that much of a heavy lift.
Simply requires making the right decisions as to who to trade in order to fill 3 very specific needs for a brief 2-year period.
How many games over .500 would they have to be to add? Mozeliak said publicly he wanted to add. Bloom disagreed and they were 11 games under .500 after the all star break.

Maybe the master plan will work out but early results are not impressive.
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