Here's the thing:BluesDom wrote: ↑11 Jun 2025 10:03 am"In the case of a #17 pick, when do you know that the GM made a mistake? My thought is 2 years. If the player remains only "NHL potential" after 2 years, I would say that the pick is a bust." My question is--why is your thought worth anything to other posters? Look at our prospect pool--the majority are not nhl ready in 2 years. What a stupid opinion. Wrong and makes no sense. You aren't getting your answer on Jiricek. Just be quiet and watch. You will be wrong again. You're just a fan and your opinions make no impact. (Maybe not a fan--maybe just a know it all - critic.) This is a huge year for Jiricek.a smell of green grass wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 22:41 pmAny pick can bust, even a TOP5. It's even accurate to say that TOP5 busts happen almost every draft year.stlblue06 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 22:11 pmPull up the draft lists from 2010-2020. It’s shocking how many top 10 picks completely bust. Like not even a bottom 6 or bottom pair player. The 15-30 range is VERY hard to hit on and the Blues have done a VERY good job in that range.MiamiLaw wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 15:06 pm If MN and kimzey - two posters with a long track record of prospect knowledge and levelheadedness - are concerned about him, then I definitely am. Hoping he is able to turn it around because it can really hurt to whiff on a #16. That pick is high enough that it would have been a VERY attractive trade piece.
It’s simply too early to tell with Jiříček. Huge season coming up for him though
The key question is when do you know that your GM made a mistake?
In the case of a TOP5 pick, it is quite easy to know. The player should be remarkable immediately. If not, it's a bust.
In the case of a #17 pick, when do you know that the GM made a mistake? My thought is 2 years. If the player remains only "NHL potential" after 2 years, I would say that the pick is a bust.
This is exactly why Armstrong loves late picks. There are NO EXPECTATIONS and NO PROGRESS REPORTS. If Armstrong fails, the fans won't even notice. Further, the only bar that the prospect has to clear is that "he made it on the Blues roster". Since he is a later pick, there are no expectations that the player make a real impact, ever.
If Jiricek busts, we won't know it for another three or four years. And Smelly will claim he was right all along.
But he isn't. He's just guessing, based upon his agenda and the current odds. Jiricek could still pan out despite the long odds - that's why they play the games.
One pick doesn't mean Army is bad at the draft, or favors picking late because he can't stand the pressure of expectations.
As for the 2 years timeframe:
Joachim Kemmel, 17th pick in 2022, has yet to make the NHL,
Zachary Bolduc, 17th pick in 2021, took three years to become a regular (24-25), as a forward - a position with a shorter development curve,
Lukas Reichel, 17th pick in 2020, took three years to become a regular (23-24), also a forward,
Peyton Krebs, 17th in 2019, took two years to become a regular, also a forward,
Ty Smith, 17th in 2018, spent the 23-24 and 24-25 seasons as a tweener, and is a defenseman.
Timothy Liljegren, 17th in 2017, has been a regular since 2021-2022, and is a defenseman. So a five-year horizon.
For a defenseman picked 17th overall, I'd wait about five years to pass judgement. But Smelly will be on his third of fourth different username by then, so we won't be able to tell him if he's wrong
