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TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 12:59 pm Reading over Duce's post, i had to go back and find Pete Kozma's pre-draft profile. If you ever needed an Exhibit A for how hard it is to predict this stuff, read the portion about his hitting acumen. Lol-

2006 National Showcase
Peter Kozma is a 2007 right hand hitting middle infielder from Owasso HS, residing in Owasso, OK. Kozma has a lean, strong, athletic type build on a 6'0" 170 lb. frame. He must be put together pretty well because he looked a bit more than his listed weight. Kozma is a quality all-around player, one that has a great combination of ability and a gamer type approach to the game. He was ranked #37 among PG National Top 100 position players and will outplay many of the more tooled players that were ranked ahead of him. At the plate Kozma is the type of hitter that keeps it simple. He has excellent hands and uses the whole field. He is a contact hitter with some surprising power. Not only is he a bat control type hitter that can give a team type at-bat, but in an run producing situation, he will drive the ball. Kozma has easy bat speed and has to put forth minimal effort at the plate. See ball, hit ball, run hard... that is him. He could hit anywhere in the line-up. His timing is good and he seems to be quite comfortable with understanding not only his own abilities, but knowing how to control the pace of the game. In the field Kozma is a playmaker. He is a plus defensive player, either at shortstop or 2nd base. His arm works on the left side and also an asset on his double play turn from the 2nd base position. Kozma has good hands and will stick his nose in there on the tough hops. He has solid actions and tools but is more concerned with making the play than looking pretty. His arm is easy, with a quick release. Kozma makes that quick flip type throw, and is capable of doing so from different angles. He ran 4.37 home/1st with a 7.04 60 yard time. In the simplest of terms, Kozma is a player. He is an impact D1 college player that can start right away in the middle of the diamond. He will also get pro attention as his tools are solid, but his ability to play the game is even better

craviduce wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 12:54 pm

peterman'srealitytour wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 12:09 pm I enjoy the discussion here. I don’t watch enough college baseball and don’t dive very far to research the high school guys. So really appreciate you guys that do that and provide that info here.

Goold used the Corbin Burnes injury as a reminder of why the Cardinals don’t gamble on FOTR pitchers in free agency. Use free agency to $ to spend on bats. I think their approach makes sense.

With that in mind, shouldn’t the Cardinals consistently go top heavy in the draft on high upside pitchers? This Seth Hernandez guy that you all discuss here comes to mind. Moreover, invest heavy in high upside arms in first ten rounds. Without this approach, is there any hope getting FOTR arms? Maybe international free agents but we haven’t exactly had great success developing international pitchers.

I think Seth Hernandez is the best player in the draft and have been a big proponent of his for several months. The RISKS, and the fact that we're likely not targeting a HS pitcher @ #5.

Seth could be a FOTR for a long time....HS success stories take 4-7 years to develop, what do we have patience for as a fan base?....the other options in this draft will likely take less time.

We did draft Shelby Miller in the 1st round....and Gorman....Miller worked out, maybe not the HOF career every wanted, but he worked out...made the Show.

----

to your point about focusing on Pitching early on....I like it, I don't mind it with the old philosophy. Bats FA, Arms Draft....but we've set our budget back 15 years to 100-125 million....I think we're in BPA territory now. We can't be choosers....so to speak, because we're likely to never win a FA race for a Pitcher, nor a Batter with that Budget.

Plus...who are we going to keep going forward? 2 years ago, I wouldn't think we'd let Noot or Donovan walk....but now? I'm not so sure.

renostl wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 14:53 pm

RunSup wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 14:21 pm

renostl wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 12:31 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 10:58 am https://www.thesportingtribune.com/2025 ... k-draft-10

the theory crafting made a pleasant read. He did a lot of homework, and the selections and/thoughts on each pick were well reasoned.

Mr. Ward did a good job here.

Jamie Arnold, LHP, FSU

not my choice of picks, but I don't walk away unhappy.

He had Willits as a "B" choice.

Solid read that demonstrates the various directions each team can go and on
the surface not wrong in doing so.

Like many have expressed, I like the upside vs a high floor, but getting an MLB player
seems paramount here.

The Cardinals are going to go College SP with their pick. Holliday and Hernandez will be off the board and maybe even 3 SP available at pick #5.

Though it's not Arnold or Doyle as the top choice for the Cardinals. It will be Anderson then Witherspoon at #5. They will take Witherspoon over the remaining LHP.

Don't bother with Arquette or any of the remaining HS SS at this pick. It won't matter. Pitching, Pitching, or Pitching.

Maybe.
There is a lot of absolutes in this post. The closest absolute IMO is Holliday being gone by #5
otherwise I see far less certainty. I like Witherspoon enough, fine with the pick, but calling him the pick over the HS SS seems
a stretch when that pitching is more likely to be available than the best or #2 HS SS later in the draft.

All good, it's a guess.

RunSup wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 21:17 pm

renostl wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 14:53 pm

RunSup wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 14:21 pm

renostl wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 12:31 pm

craviduce wrote: ↑09 Jun 2025 10:58 am https://www.thesportingtribune.com/2025 ... k-draft-10

the theory crafting made a pleasant read. He did a lot of homework, and the selections and/thoughts on each pick were well reasoned.

Mr. Ward did a good job here.

Jamie Arnold, LHP, FSU

not my choice of picks, but I don't walk away unhappy.

He had Willits as a "B" choice.

Solid read that demonstrates the various directions each team can go and on
the surface not wrong in doing so.

Like many have expressed, I like the upside vs a high floor, but getting an MLB player
seems paramount here.

The Cardinals are going to go College SP with their pick. Holliday and Hernandez will be off the board and maybe even 3 SP available at pick #5.

Though it's not Arnold or Doyle as the top choice for the Cardinals. It will be Anderson then Witherspoon at #5. They will take Witherspoon over the remaining LHP.

Don't bother with Arquette or any of the remaining HS SS at this pick. It won't matter. Pitching, Pitching, or Pitching.

Maybe.
There is a lot of absolutes in this post. The closest absolute IMO is Holliday being gone by #5
otherwise I see far less certainty. I like Witherspoon enough, fine with the pick, but calling him the pick over the HS SS seems
a stretch when that pitching is more likely to be available than the best or #2 HS SS later in the draft.

All good, it's a guess.

Just a bunch of my hot air takes.

But I really can't see the cardinals drafting a HS SS not named Holliday over college SP. Just a strange confluence of best players and need. Nobody is head and shoulders above anybody else.

craviduce wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 07:00 am https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/641780 ... -arquette/

Keith Law's new mock

Eli Willits, SS, Ft.Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.)

Law says the Cards would take any of his first 4 ahead of Willits, which includes Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday. He also says Witherspoon and Aloy (surprised by that one ~ College SS if we decide against a high school SS) could land at #5

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑10 Jun 2025 12:59 pm Reading over Duce's post, i had to go back and find Pete Kozma's pre-draft profile. If you ever needed an Exhibit A for how hard it is to predict this stuff, read the portion about his hitting acumen. Lol-

2006 National Showcase
Peter Kozma is a 2007 right hand hitting middle infielder from Owasso HS, residing in Owasso, OK. Kozma has a lean, strong, athletic type build on a 6'0" 170 lb. frame. He must be put together pretty well because he looked a bit more than his listed weight. Kozma is a quality all-around player, one that has a great combination of ability and a gamer type approach to the game. He was ranked #37 among PG National Top 100 position players and will outplay many of the more tooled players that were ranked ahead of him. At the plate Kozma is the type of hitter that keeps it simple. He has excellent hands and uses the whole field. He is a contact hitter with some surprising power. Not only is he a bat control type hitter that can give a team type at-bat, but in an run producing situation, he will drive the ball. Kozma has easy bat speed and has to put forth minimal effort at the plate. See ball, hit ball, run hard... that is him. He could hit anywhere in the line-up. His timing is good and he seems to be quite comfortable with understanding not only his own abilities, but knowing how to control the pace of the game. In the field Kozma is a playmaker. He is a plus defensive player, either at shortstop or 2nd base. His arm works on the left side and also an asset on his double play turn from the 2nd base position. Kozma has good hands and will stick his nose in there on the tough hops. He has solid actions and tools but is more concerned with making the play than looking pretty. His arm is easy, with a quick release. Kozma makes that quick flip type throw, and is capable of doing so from different angles. He ran 4.37 home/1st with a 7.04 60 yard time. In the simplest of terms, Kozma is a player. He is an impact D1 college player that can start right away in the middle of the diamond. He will also get pro attention as his tools are solid, but his ability to play the game is even better

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 10:26 am

craviduce wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 07:00 am https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/641780 ... -arquette/

Keith Law's new mock

Eli Willits, SS, Ft.Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.)

Law says the Cards would take any of his first 4 ahead of Willits, which includes Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday. He also says Witherspoon and Aloy (surprised by that one ~ College SS if we decide against a high school SS) could land at #5

Duce- As far as upside is concerned, do you think Bremner has the potential to be an "ace" or TOTR starter?

craviduce wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 11:10 am

TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 10:26 am

craviduce wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 07:00 am https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/641780 ... -arquette/

Keith Law's new mock

Eli Willits, SS, Ft.Cobb-Broxton HS (Okla.)

Law says the Cards would take any of his first 4 ahead of Willits, which includes Arquette, Doyle, Anderson, Holliday. He also says Witherspoon and Aloy (surprised by that one ~ College SS if we decide against a high school SS) could land at #5

Duce- As far as upside is concerned, do you think Bremner has the potential to be an "ace" or TOTR starter?

I would want to comb over his medicals next week during the Combine. 2nd week of the season, he experienced forearm discomfort in a start and was pulled 2nd or 3rd inning. He went on to pitch well on the season, he got progressively better later into the season, and his K's finally saw a couple ticks north of where he started 2025. But his stock never rebounded...why?

As for his upside? Before the draft, I felt he could probably pick up any pitch along the way during his career and make it a viable average-above average offering. He took a KNOWN 3rd pitch in a slider this year and was horrible with it. I don't know, to behonest on the FOTR. He's got a really good fastball, sits mid 90s, has the best change up....but nothing else. That's a reliever, or a guy who will have to pick up a sinker/cutter (but can he?) to go with the 4seamer/change up. And that's a backend type of the rotation.

I do think he'll draft higher than he's mocking right now...if the medicals are clean....most GM's tend to move toward the "known", and his known body of work is greater than every pitcher....other than Jamie Arnold. His recent work (2025)....not so much.

StlMike1969 wrote: ↑12 Jun 2025 11:50 am My question is why are there so many guys at the top of the draft board that are not performing well this season, and those that are doing well not considered top picks. You have some big strong college pitchers with 2.5 ERA's or less as seniors and will be eligible not being even talked about.