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Posted: **05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm**

NYCardsFan wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"

You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 16:25 pm**

woofy25 wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm
NYCardsFan wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125

Actually, Burleson's BA for 2025 was .290. Which is even more impressive. Quite an improvement from the .244 in 2023.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 16:28 pm**

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 13:51 pm
Voldemort wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:47 am My initial thought was Bugs Bunny.

Since Bugs Bunny is a FA, he won't be signing with the Cardinals so:

SS Masyn Winn
2B JJ Wetherholt
1B Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Thomas Saggese
CF Victor Scott II

My struggle is between Noot and Gorman's spots in the lineup.
I agree that Marmol will put Winn at leadoff.
My question is why? He has never shown to be a good leadoff man.

Scott has hit leadoff and has the tools to do so.
(I get he hasn't proven the OBP in The Show)
Wetherholt has hit leadoff.
(I get that he is a rookie.)
Torres has been a dang good leadoff man in the minors.
(I get may not even get a chance.)
Noot has had some success there.
(Will he be healthy to start the year?)

Seems like we have 4 other options.
All seem to have their question marks.

I have Noot lower in the lineup because of worries about coming back from an injury and agree that, at some point, he might get a chance at that leadoff spot. I put Winn in the leadoff spot because he stole so many bases in the minors. Oli has to let him run. I put JJ in the second spot because his swing looks pretty good, and he has had discipline at the plate in the minors. IOWs, Winn can run, and JJ can do what he has proven he has the ability to do, which will help the Cardinals.

I guess no one wanted Bugs Bunny in free agency.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 16:51 pm**

Voldemort wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 16:28 pm
Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 13:51 pm
Voldemort wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:47 am My initial thought was Bugs Bunny.

Since Bugs Bunny is a FA, he won't be signing with the Cardinals so:

SS Masyn Winn
2B JJ Wetherholt
1B Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Thomas Saggese
CF Victor Scott II

My struggle is between Noot and Gorman's spots in the lineup.
I agree that Marmol will put Winn at leadoff.
My question is why? He has never shown to be a good leadoff man.

Scott has hit leadoff and has the tools to do so.
(I get he hasn't proven the OBP in The Show)
Wetherholt has hit leadoff.
(I get that he is a rookie.)
Torres has been a dang good leadoff man in the minors.
(I get may not even get a chance.)
Noot has had some success there.
(Will he be healthy to start the year?)

Seems like we have 4 other options.
All seem to have their question marks.
I have Noot lower in the lineup because of worries about coming back from an injury and agree that, at some point, he might get a chance at that leadoff spot. I put Winn in the leadoff spot because he stole so many bases in the minors. Oli has to let him run. I put JJ in the second spot because his swing looks pretty good, and he has had discipline at the plate in the minors. IOWs, Winn can run, and JJ can do what he has proven he has the ability to do, which will help the Cardinals.

I guess no one wanted Bugs Bunny in free agency.

Ok, thanks for the response.
Why would batting lower be any different from an injury? Just curious.
VSII stole way more bags than Winn in the minors.
I agree JJ should be in the 2 hole. Waiting for Marmol to "hide" him lower to protect him.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 18:31 pm**

woofy25 wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm
NYCardsFan wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125

Year/BABIP/BA/xBA/wOBA/xWOBA/BB%/K%
2023: .261/.244/.272/.300/.337/6.6%/13.0%
2024: .276/.269/.270/.319/.333/5.9%/12.8%
2025: .312/.290/.272/.346/.345/7.1%/14.5%

Point-to-point (per Shady’s preferred template): +51 pt difference in BABIP ==> +46 pt difference in BA and wOBA, ZERO difference in statcast xBA, and a +8 pt difference in xWOBA. Hmmm . . . It’s almost as if Burleson wasn’t nearly as bad as his baseball card stats may have suggested (at least to you and Shady, apparently) in 2023, and conversely he arguably wasn’t quite as good as those baseball card stats may have suggested in 2025.

No one questions the obvious fact that his raw outcomes improved, but Shady's claim was that Burleson is "vastly improved" as a hitter--not merely that he had better outcomes--which is a claim about his underlying skill level. I mean, I could sign up for "improved"--for example, his O-swing% was down 5%, which is encouraging--but "vastly improved"? The variance in his production is almost entirely a function of BABIP--do you have a view on what Burleson's "true" baseline BABIP is (or should be)? If so, on what basis? I, for one, have no idea where it will settle based on these numbers. You and I had this same discussion a year or so ago, so I won't belabor the point, but there's a difference between process, peripherals, batted-ball variance, and raw outcomes/baseball card stats. Where you seem to perceive fundamental underlying "trends" in skill, I see an awful lot of statistical noise that is difficult to interpret or forecast. It appears we aren't going to convince each other, which of course is perfectly fine.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 18:39 pm**

OldRed wrote: ↑04 Feb 2026 09:41 am Who leads off?

And so on.

Are you asking who will strike out first against Skubal?

Tarik Skubal wins record arbitration case vs. Tigers, will earn $32M

Does it matter?

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 19:51 pm**

NYCardsFan wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 18:31 pm
woofy25 wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm
NYCardsFan wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: ↑05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125
Year/BABIP/BA/xBA/wOBA/xWOBA/BB%/K%
2023: .261/.244/.272/.300/.337/6.6%/13.0%
2024: .276/.269/.270/.319/.333/5.9%/12.8%
2025: .312/.290/.272/.346/.345/7.1%/14.5%

Point-to-point (per Shady’s preferred template): +51 pt difference in BABIP ==> +46 pt difference in BA and wOBA, ZERO difference in statcast xBA, and a +8 pt difference in xWOBA. Hmmm . . . It’s almost as if Burleson wasn’t nearly as bad as his baseball card stats may have suggested (at least to you and Shady, apparently) in 2023, and conversely he arguably wasn’t quite as good as those baseball card stats may have suggested in 2025.

No one questions the obvious fact that his raw outcomes improved, but Shady's claim was that Burleson is "vastly improved" as a hitter--not merely that he had better outcomes--which is a claim about his underlying skill level. I mean, I could sign up for "improved"--for example, his O-swing% was down 5%, which is encouraging--but "vastly improved"? The variance in his production is almost entirely a function of BABIP--do you have a view on what Burleson's "true" baseline BABIP is (or should be)? If so, on what basis? I, for one, have no idea where it will settle based on these numbers. You and I had this same discussion a year or so ago, so I won't belabor the point, but there's a difference between process, peripherals, batted-ball variance, and raw outcomes/baseball card stats. Where you seem to perceive fundamental underlying "trends" in skill, I see an awful lot of statistical noise that is difficult to interpret or forecast. It appears we aren't going to convince each other, which of course is perfectly fine.

I don’t know that we did have this conversation last year because I was not a Burleson fan going into 2025. I thought he was platoon player who had no defensive position. For multiple years I thought Burleson had the presence of a pitcher in the batters box.

I still believe in the outcome numbers bc I don’t believe that a player can be lucky or unlucky for an entire season. There are too many at-bats for that to be statically likely. So, if a guys BA/OBP/SLG all increase significantly over a three year period, that’s enough to convince me he has become a better hitter, not that the luck factor has equalized or has shifted significantly. He has also improved dramatically against LHP.

I remember after the 2023 season, statcast guys were raving about how Goldschmidts hard hit rate and bat speed had no decline and that 2024 would be a big year for him. That didn’t come to fruition. I know it’s anecdotal to show one example. I think hard hit rate, linedrive rate, and other statcast numbers serve a purpose, but the outcome stats are really what matters. And if a guy in his 20s makes continuous improvements yoy with those numbers, then it’s a pretty easy sell to me that he’s an improved hitter.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 19:55 pm**

ramfandan wrote: ↑04 Feb 2026 10:12 am Old Red,
Not my opening day lineup but one I saw listed for Cardinals post Donovan trade :

St. Louis Cardinals projected lineup after trading away Brendan Donovan
2B JJ Wetherholt
SS Masyn Winn
1B Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
LF Lars Nootbaar
RF Jordan Walker
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Thomas Saggese
CF Victor Scott II

Wouldn’t be a .500 team at AA. Enjoy the season folks.

Posted: **05 Feb 2026 20:00 pm**

11WSChamps wrote: ↑04 Feb 2026 22:22 pm What's the over/under on runs scored by this vaunted group this season?

180

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