What is your opening day lineup?

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woofy25
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Posts: 1634
Joined: 23 May 2024 14:44 pm

Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by woofy25 »

NYCardsFan wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement :roll:
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125
Shady
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Joined: 26 Nov 2022 15:39 pm

Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by Shady »

woofy25 wrote: 05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm
NYCardsFan wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement :roll:
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125
Actually, Burleson's BA for 2025 was .290. Which is even more impressive. Quite an improvement from the .244 in 2023.
Voldemort
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Posts: 3977
Joined: 06 Aug 2022 18:21 pm

Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by Voldemort »

Cardinals4Life wrote: 05 Feb 2026 13:51 pm
Voldemort wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:47 am My initial thought was Bugs Bunny.

Since Bugs Bunny is a FA, he won't be signing with the Cardinals so:

SS Masyn Winn
2B JJ Wetherholt
1B Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Thomas Saggese
CF Victor Scott II

My struggle is between Noot and Gorman's spots in the lineup.
I agree that Marmol will put Winn at leadoff.
My question is why? He has never shown to be a good leadoff man.

Scott has hit leadoff and has the tools to do so.
(I get he hasn't proven the OBP in The Show)
Wetherholt has hit leadoff.
(I get that he is a rookie.)
Torres has been a dang good leadoff man in the minors.
(I get may not even get a chance.)
Noot has had some success there.
(Will he be healthy to start the year?)

Seems like we have 4 other options.
All seem to have their question marks.
I have Noot lower in the lineup because of worries about coming back from an injury and agree that, at some point, he might get a chance at that leadoff spot. I put Winn in the leadoff spot because he stole so many bases in the minors. Oli has to let him run. I put JJ in the second spot because his swing looks pretty good, and he has had discipline at the plate in the minors. IOWs, Winn can run, and JJ can do what he has proven he has the ability to do, which will help the Cardinals.

I guess no one wanted Bugs Bunny in free agency.
Cardinals4Life
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Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by Cardinals4Life »

Voldemort wrote: 05 Feb 2026 16:28 pm
Cardinals4Life wrote: 05 Feb 2026 13:51 pm
Voldemort wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:47 am My initial thought was Bugs Bunny.

Since Bugs Bunny is a FA, he won't be signing with the Cardinals so:

SS Masyn Winn
2B JJ Wetherholt
1B Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Thomas Saggese
CF Victor Scott II

My struggle is between Noot and Gorman's spots in the lineup.
I agree that Marmol will put Winn at leadoff.
My question is why? He has never shown to be a good leadoff man.

Scott has hit leadoff and has the tools to do so.
(I get he hasn't proven the OBP in The Show)
Wetherholt has hit leadoff.
(I get that he is a rookie.)
Torres has been a dang good leadoff man in the minors.
(I get may not even get a chance.)
Noot has had some success there.
(Will he be healthy to start the year?)

Seems like we have 4 other options.
All seem to have their question marks.
I have Noot lower in the lineup because of worries about coming back from an injury and agree that, at some point, he might get a chance at that leadoff spot. I put Winn in the leadoff spot because he stole so many bases in the minors. Oli has to let him run. I put JJ in the second spot because his swing looks pretty good, and he has had discipline at the plate in the minors. IOWs, Winn can run, and JJ can do what he has proven he has the ability to do, which will help the Cardinals.

I guess no one wanted Bugs Bunny in free agency.
Ok, thanks for the response.
Why would batting lower be any different from an injury? Just curious.
VSII stole way more bags than Winn in the minors.
I agree JJ should be in the 2 hole. Waiting for Marmol to "hide" him lower to protect him. :roll:
NYCardsFan
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Posts: 1640
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:52 pm

Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by NYCardsFan »

woofy25 wrote: 05 Feb 2026 16:10 pm
NYCardsFan wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:11 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 10:01 am
craviduce wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:58 am
Shady wrote: 05 Feb 2026 09:55 am Both Church and Saggese have the potential to show vast improvement.
everyone has potential to show vast improvement :roll:
I disagree. Some improvement, yes, vast improvement only some. An example of vast improvement as a MLB hitter. Alec Burleson.
Alec Burleson (xBA/xWOBA)
2023: .272/.337
2024: .270/.333
2025: .272/.345

"Vast improvement"
You're just trolling right?
.244/.300/.390/.691/87
.269/.314/.420/.735/105
.280/.343/.459/.801/125
Year/BABIP/BA/xBA/wOBA/xWOBA/BB%/K%
2023: .261/.244/.272/.300/.337/6.6%/13.0%
2024: .276/.269/.270/.319/.333/5.9%/12.8%
2025: .312/.290/.272/.346/.345/7.1%/14.5%

Point-to-point (per Shady’s preferred template): +51 pt difference in BABIP ==> +46 pt difference in BA and wOBA, ZERO difference in statcast xBA, and a +8 pt difference in xWOBA. Hmmm . . . It’s almost as if Burleson wasn’t nearly as bad as his baseball card stats may have suggested (at least to you and Shady, apparently) in 2023, and conversely he arguably wasn’t quite as good as those baseball card stats may have suggested in 2025.

No one questions the obvious fact that his raw outcomes improved, but Shady's claim was that Burleson is "vastly improved" as a hitter--not merely that he had better outcomes--which is a claim about his underlying skill level. I mean, I could sign up for "improved"--for example, his O-swing% was down 5%, which is encouraging--but "vastly improved"? The variance in his production is almost entirely a function of BABIP--do you have a view on what Burleson's "true" baseline BABIP is (or should be)? If so, on what basis? I, for one, have no idea where it will settle based on these numbers. You and I had this same discussion a year or so ago, so I won't belabor the point, but there's a difference between process, peripherals, batted-ball variance, and raw outcomes/baseball card stats. Where you seem to perceive fundamental underlying "trends" in skill, I see an awful lot of statistical noise that is difficult to interpret or forecast. It appears we aren't going to convince each other, which of course is perfectly fine.
Last edited by NYCardsFan on 05 Feb 2026 18:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
acco40
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Posts: 899
Joined: 23 May 2024 16:50 pm

Re: What is your opening day lineup?

Post by acco40 »

OldRed wrote: 04 Feb 2026 09:41 am Who leads off?

And so on.
Are you asking who will strike out first against Skubal?

Tarik Skubal wins record arbitration case vs. Tigers, will earn $32M

Does it matter?
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