Cardinals Spending in 2030 - A poll

[Youboughtit]

Compete for what? That is my question. No one cares about the NLC or wildcard so if that’s the plan then sell the team because fans don’t care about that. If it is to win a WS then that formula is failed and impossible. Draft and develop may win a division but not a WS without a top 10 payroll. See Rampa and Milwaukee as proof. Both #1 farm systems that didn’t have a chance in playoffs

Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay haven't won a WS (yet) with a top farm system and a MLB payroll ranked in the bottom third.

However, the Cardinals should be aiming for a top farm system and a MLB payroll somewhere in range of 10th to 15th.

The $50, $70, $100 million payroll difference there should be significant.

When you have eliminated the impossible (spending like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Astros, etc.), whatever is left (winning by the formula the Cardinals are undertaking), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

2006-2011 they were 11 entering the season and 9 at end of season. I don’t think 15th will be enough.

[Youboughtit]

Which of these choices best describes where you think the Cardinals' spending on the ML payroll will be in 2030:

1) They'll be spending like the Dodgers (maybe because you think the team will have been sold to another Steve Cohen?)!

2) They'll be spending well over $200 million and have a payroll in the Top 10 in MLB (10th in 2025 was $210 million).

3) They'll be back to spending consistent with their historical highs (~$180 million) wherever that ranks them.

4) Due to revenue issues, they'll be spending a bit less than their historical highs (e.g., ~$140-$150 million).

5) They'll be spending down with the small market teams (like the Guardians or less).

FWIW - I'll take #3.

The plan will depend on how well the farm is producing. If they are consistently churning out enough talent to compete, the only spending will be occasional arbitration raises and they won’t extend/keep anyone. So basically option 5.

If the farm is proving more supplemental-level talent but not enough to compete for a wildcard then I think they land somewhere between 3 and 4.

I think the latter scenario is more realistic as the former would require dominating the draft and development aspect, and while I think Bloom will be good, I doubt he will be THAT good.

All things considered, I still think the plan is to build for a wildcard berth/compete for a division title, despite the PR talk. We switched POBOs, not ownership, and BDW likely still believes the playoffs are a crapshoot, unless you spend crazily. And he’s probably right.

By 2030 any high performers must be extended. That will increase salaries as well. That includes Doyle Winn Wetherholt and many others.

They should be, but if they have what they deem suitable replacements knocking on the door, my guess is they let the vets walk instead of trading the surplus prospect assets. I think ownership’s primary goal is to compete, but as cheap as possible.

Compete for what? That is my question. No one cares about the NLC or wildcard so if that’s the plan then sell the team because fans don’t care about that. If it is to win a WS then that formula is failed and impossible. Draft and develop may win a division but not a WS without a top 10 payroll. See Rampa and Milwaukee as proof. Both #1 farm systems that didn’t have a chance in playoffs

I care about winning the NLC.

Can’t be the final goal. Just a stepping stone to the real goal

[mattmitchl44]

Compete for what? That is my question. No one cares about the NLC or wildcard so if that’s the plan then sell the team because fans don’t care about that. If it is to win a WS then that formula is failed and impossible. Draft and develop may win a division but not a WS without a top 10 payroll. See Rampa and Milwaukee as proof. Both #1 farm systems that didn’t have a chance in playoffs

Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay haven't won a WS (yet) with a top farm system and a MLB payroll ranked in the bottom third.

However, the Cardinals should be aiming for a top farm system and a MLB payroll somewhere in range of 10th to 15th.

The $50, $70, $100 million payroll difference there should be significant.

When you have eliminated the impossible (spending like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Astros, etc.), whatever is left (winning by the formula the Cardinals are undertaking), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

2006-2011 they were 11 entering the season and 9 at end of season. I don’t think 15th will be enough.

10th, without having an ~Top 5 farm system in terms of producing young, cost controlled talent, won't be enough either.

[Youboughtit]

Compete for what? That is my question. No one cares about the NLC or wildcard so if that’s the plan then sell the team because fans don’t care about that. If it is to win a WS then that formula is failed and impossible. Draft and develop may win a division but not a WS without a top 10 payroll. See Rampa and Milwaukee as proof. Both #1 farm systems that didn’t have a chance in playoffs

Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay haven't won a WS (yet) with a top farm system and a MLB payroll ranked in the bottom third.

However, the Cardinals should be aiming for a top farm system and a MLB payroll somewhere in range of 10th to 15th.

The $50, $70, $100 million payroll difference there should be significant.

When you have eliminated the impossible (spending like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Astros, etc.), whatever is left (winning by the formula the Cardinals are undertaking), no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

2006-2011 they were 11 entering the season and 9 at end of season. I don’t think 15th will be enough.

10th, without having an ~Top 5 farm system in terms of producing young, cost controlled talent, won't be enough either.

Only because they had already promoted them to the MLB. Wainwright Molina Pujols etc. don’t need a top 5 farm when you produce 3 or more HOF at one time. The will need a top 5 and top 10 payroll if the can’t do that again.